Agricultural Productivity Strategies
for the Future:
Addressing U.S. and Global Challenges
West view of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington D.C. (Photo courtesy of the Architect of the Capitol.)
CAST Issue Paper 45
January 2010
Issue Paper Authors
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Gale Buchanan (Chair)
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Robert W. Herdt
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College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences
The University of Georgia, Tifton Campus
Department of Applied Economics and Management
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
Luther G. Tweeten
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Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics
The Ohio State University, Columbus
Preface Author
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Norman E. Borlaug, Professor Emeritus (1914 – 2009)
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Texas A&M University
College Station
Issue Paper Reviewers and CAST Liaison
Issue Paper Reviewers
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Charles F. Connor
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Charles E. Hess
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National Council of Farmer Cooperatives
Washington, D.C.
Department of Plant Science
University of California, Davis
Per Pinstrup-Andersen
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College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
CAST Liaison
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Henry L. Shands
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Fort Collins, Colorado
Dr. Norman E. Borlaug
1914 - 2009
Agricultural Science and the Public.
1973. CAST Paper No. 1
4
Introduction
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Success of agriculture
Issues this paper addresses
Issues not addressed
Correcting pathologies in the U.S.
economy
• Future role of agriculture in meeting the
energy and climate control challenge
• Future success of agriculture through
enhanced productivity
5
Future Demands Facing Agriculture
• Principal drivers of global demand for
agricultural output
• One billion people who today rarely get
enough to eat
• Projections show 2025 demand for farm
products will be 143% of 2000 demand
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Bioenergy and Bioproducts Bring About
a New Paradigm for Agriculture
• We can visualize, if not see, the end of
cheap petroleum
• Harvesting the sun’s energy is one
approach to meeting the energy
challenge
• Competition for resources will require
hard choices
• Unfolding of this process will mean an
almost limitless demand for agricultural
output
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Emerging Constraints on Future
Agricultural Productivity in the U.S.
• We are aware of present
constraints; others are emerging
• It is prudent to plan for all
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Soil, Water and Crop Issues
• Soil erosion is a long-term problem
• Water quality and quantity are
affected by farming and irrigation
practices
• Bioengineered crops offer benefits
to agriculture but raise concerns in
some countries
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Animal Welfare Issues
• Most people recognize that animal
agriculture is “under fire” in some
areas
• Society as a whole will largely
determine and set social and moral
standards in animal agriculture
• Certain production practices, if
implemented, will place further
demands on agriculture
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Endangered Species Act
• Preserving diversity comes at a
price
• We must weigh costs vs. benefits
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Fertilizer Resources
• Sustainability of agriculture requires
a sustainable source of plant
nutrients
─ Nitrogen
─ Potassium
─ Phosphorus
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Global Warming
• Global warming will have an
influence on agriculture by affecting
the demand for natural resources
─ the crops we grow
─ the location of crop production
─ the availability of water: some areas
too much, other areas too little
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Major Issues Facing Agricultural
Productivity Outside the U.S.
• Must consider agriculture from a global
perspective
– China: expected growing demand for food
has not affected global ecosystem in past
decade
– India: great potential for increased production
– Brazil: continued growth of agriculture is
possible, but there are environmental
concerns
– Sub-Saharan Africa: recent increases in
agricultural GDP, but significant challenges
remain
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Strategies to Meet Future Agriculture
Needs for Agricultural Output
• Success requires a supportive
institutional structure
• Generally, this support must come
from the public sector
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Assist Less-Developed Countries (LDC)
• Approaches
– Provide food and medical support
– Help build institutional and
intellectual capacity
– Develop international agreements
and trade
• Must be greater commitment for
sustained support for research
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The “Next Green Revolution”
• Strong commitment to science is
necessary to meet future challenges
• Remember Dr. Borlaug’s challenge
• How do we go about making the
Next Green Revolution happen?
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Commitment of ALL branches of Science
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Basic science
Applied science
Classical genetics
Biotechnology
Other areas such as nanotechnology
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A Few Ideas That We Suggest
Should Be Considered
• Enabling C3 plants to utilize the C4
photosynthetic pathway
• Nitrogen fixation in non-legumes
• Incorporating the process of
apomixes into crop plants
• Improving pest resistance in plants
• Improving energy efficiency of
plants
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What is the Commitment to Agricultural Research
to Bring about Another Green Revolution?
• Linkage between agricultural research
and productivity is unquestioned
• Encouraging support for research and
development beginning in the 1960s
• Maintained level until early 1990s
• Gradual increase in support for research
since 2000
• Bottom line: “We must strengthen our
commitment to research!”
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Conclusions
• Challenges are real
• Agriculture’s challenge is
food, feed, fiber, flowers, and
now fuel or energy
• Convergence of so many at
one time is unprecedented
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Strategies for Meeting the Challenges
• Meeting the challenges of
maintaining and enhancing
agricultural productivity requires
broad-based support
• It will require constant public
commitment to acquire adequate
funding for agricultural research
and education
• Remain hopeful and confident
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Questions/Discussion
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