Introduction to Empirical Food
& Nutrition Security Analysis
Outline
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Concept
Dimensions & Policy Options
State of Food Insecurity Today
Global Hunger Index
Bangladesh Scenario
Contemporary Policy Questions
Course Structure
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Food Security
The World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists
when all people, at all times, have physical, social
and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
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Food Security: Four Dimensions
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Access
Availability
Stabilization
Utilization
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Food Security: Policy Options
(i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production
by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c)
depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land
redistribution;
(ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing
entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset
redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme);
(iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like
access to safe drinking water and sanitation.
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State of Food Insecurity
Food Insecurity
• A major problem facing developing countries.
• World: Number and percentage of undernourished
persons
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2006-2008
2000-2002
1995-1997
1990-1992
1979-1981
1969-1971
- 850million (13%)
- 836million (14%)
- 792million (14%)
- 848million (16%)
- 853million (21%)
- 878million (26%)
Source: http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/
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Number of hungry people, 1969-2010
Source: FAO
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Number of Hungry in the world: 925
million in 2010
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Global Hunger Index
IFPRI Index
Source: IFPRI
Global Hunger Index
Objectives:
• Rank countries.
• Compare international experience for policy
guidance.
• Draw global attention.
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Global Hunger Index
• Sample:
• Based on 120 developing and transitional countries;
• Compares 88 only.
• Three indicators
• Un-weighted average as an index
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Indicators
#
Indicator
Purpose to measure
1
% of calorie deficient /
under-nourished population
Hunger
2
% children underweight U5
Malnutrition of
children, the most
vulnerable to hunger
3
U5 mortality rate (%)
Child deaths caused
by malnutrition &
disease
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Hunger Index Scale
Index
Classification
≥ 30.0
Extremely alarming
20.0 – 29.9
Alarming
10.0 – 19.9
Serious
5.0 – 9.9
Moderate hunger
≤ 4.9
Low hunger
Food Security Introduction
Color Code
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Country Classification: n= 120
7
32
26
E xtremely alarming
Alarming
S erious
Moderate
23
L ow hunger
32
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Global Trends: 1990 - 2008
• Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than
one-fifth
 1990: 18.7
 2008: 15.2
• Performance by indicator
 % underweight children: declined by 5.9 points
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Regional Profile: 2008
• Status: Alarming
 Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3
 South Asia: 23.0
• Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are
in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Ten best performers since 1990: None from SubSaharan Africa.
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Country Profiles
Best score
Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and
Peru
Worst score
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), followed by
Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra Leone
Most progress
Kuwait, Peru, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and
Mexico
Regress
DRC, North Korea, Swaziland, Guinea-Bissau, and
Zimbabwe
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Country Profiles
Highest proportion of
population with calorie
deficiency
Eritrea: 75%
DRC: 74%
Highest prevalence of
India, Yemen, and Timorunderweight children
Leste: more than 40%
(a measure of malnutrition)
Highest child mortality
(under 5) rate
Source: IFPRI
Sierra Leone: 27%
Angola: 26%
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Poverty Profile
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Where Do The
Poor Live?
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Food Security: Introduction
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Global Index Scale
Index
Classification
≥ 30.0
Extremely alarming
20.0 – 29.9
Alarming
10.0 – 19.9
Serious
5.0 – 9.9
Moderate hunger
≤ 4.9
Low hunger
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Color Code
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2008 Global Hunger Index
Source; IFPRI
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Progress – Regress
Source; IFPRI
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GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008
Source: IFPRI
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GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011
Source: IFPRI
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GHI: Progress in South, East and
Southeast Asia
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Bangladesh: Food Security Scenario
http://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html
• Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal:
• About 43% of children under-five stunted;
– Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access
to nutritious foods.
• Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice.
• Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to
2.8% by 2008.
• Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP
• Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect
30% of this land.
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Bangladesh: Policy Priorities
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
1. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and
Adaptation to Climate Change
2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors
3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and
Global/Regional Trade
4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food
Distribution
5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security
6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender
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Contemporary Policy Questions
1. What is the state of food insecurity today?
2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform
programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional
consequences?
3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play?
What is the international evidence?
4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing
countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience?
5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is
the information base for policy formulation and implementation?
6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in
Bangladesh’?
7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor
households in Bangladesh?
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Course Structure
• Addresses issues related to food & nutrition
security within a quantitative framework.
 It raises issues within a quantitative framework;
 Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis;
 Illustrates its application with reference to published studies
/ exercises based on sample data sets; and
 Interprets results and examines policy implications.
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Thank You
Supplementary Information
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Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile
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Bangladesh: Economic Indicators
Total Population (millions) - 2009 (WB)
162.221
Population growth rate - 2009 (WB)
1%
GNI per capita, $ PPP - 2009 (WB)
1550
Population below 1$ PPP per day - 2005
(MDGI)
49 %
Rural population - 2009 (WB)
72 %
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 2009 (WB)
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Bangladesh: Health Indicators
Pop. with sustainable access to improved
sanitation - 2008 (WHO)
53%
Life expectancy at birth (years) both
genders - 2008 (WHO) 65
65%
Pop. with access to improved drinking
water sources - 2008 (WHO)
80%
Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >=
15 years - 2009 (WHO) 0.05%
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0.05%
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Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
Food Availability
1. Integrated research and extension to
develop sustainable responses to climate
change .
2. Improved water management and
infrastructure for irrigation purposes.
3. Increased supply and sustainable use
of agricultural inputs.
4. Development of the fisheries sector.
5. Development of the livestock sector.
6. Improved access to markets, improved
agricultural value added, increased
nonfarm incomes.
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Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
Food Access
7. Enhanced capacity
strengthening to formulate
and implement food policies
and related investments.
8. Enhanced public foodmanagement systems.
9. Development of an
integrated, multiyear safety
net program.
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Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
Food Utilization
10. Implementation of
community-based nutrition
activities through livelihood
approaches.
11. Updated food consumption
and food composition data
and behavioral change
communication on dietary
diversification.
12. Improved food safety and
quality.
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