HND – 6. Perception & Individual decision making

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Lim Sei Kee @ cK
A process by which individuals
organize and interpret their
sensory impressions in order
to give meaning to their
environment.
•People’s behavior is based on their perception of
what reality is, not on reality itself.
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Perception is the process by which
individuals make sense of their world.
Individuals may look at the same thing, yet
perceive it differently.
Differences in perceptions can cause problems
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Communication
Conflict
Motivation
Judgment
Decision Making
FACTORS IN THE PERCEIVER
Attitudes
Motives
Interests
Experience
Expectations
FACTORS IN THE TARGET
•Motion
•Sounds
•Size
•Background
•Similarity
PERCEPTION
FACTORS IN THE SITUATION
Time
Work setting
Social setting
Attribution Theory
When individuals observe
behavior, they attempt to
determine whether it is
internally or externally
caused.
Distinctiveness: shows different behaviors in different
situations.
Consensus: response is the same as others to same situation.
Consistency: responds in the same way over time.
Suggests that perceivers try to “attribute” the
observed behavior to a type of cause:
◦ Internal – behavior is believed to be under the
personal control of the individual
◦ External –the person is forced into the behavior by
outside events/causes
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1. Fundamental attribution error
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The tendency to underestimate the influence of external
factors and overestimate the influence of internal factors
when making judgments about the behavior of others.
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The tendency to attribute others' bad performance to
internal causes & Attribute their good performance to
external causes
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2. Self-serving bias
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The tendency for individuals to attribute their own
successes to internal factors while putting the blame for
failures on external factors.
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attribute successes to ourselves – internal
attribute failures to the environment – external
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Selective perception
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Halo effect
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Contrast effect
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Projection
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Stereotyping
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Self-fulfilling prophecy
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Profiling
Selective Perception
People selectively interpret what they see on the
basis of their interests, background, experience,
and attitudes.
Halo Effect
Drawing a general impression
about an individual on the
basis of a single
characteristic
Contrast Effects
Evaluation of a person’s characteristics that
are affected by comparisons with other
people recently encountered who rank higher
or lower on the same characteristics
Projection
Stereotyping
Attributing one’s own
characteristics to other
people
Judging someone on the
basis of one’s perception
of the group to which that
person belongs
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Self-fulfilling prophecy – a situation in which one
person inaccurately perceives a second person and
the resulting expectations cause the second person
to behave in ways consistent with the original
perceptions.
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Profiling – a group of individuals is singled out –
typically on the basis of race or ethnicity – for
intensive inquiry or investigation.
Problem
A perceived discrepancy
between the current state of
affairs and a desired state.
Decisions
Choices made from among
alternatives developed from
data perceived as relevant.
Perception
of the
decision
maker
Outcomes
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Making
consistent,
value-maximizing
choices within specified constraints.
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Rational
decision-making
decision-making
model
model
that
–
a
describes
how individuals should behave in order to
maximize some outcome.
Rational DecisionMaking Model
Model Assumptions
Describes how
individuals should
behave in order to
maximize some
outcome.
• Known options
• Problem clarity
• Clear preferences
• Constant
preferences
• No time or cost
constraints
• Maximum payoff
1.
Define the problem.
2.
Identify the decision criteria.
3.
Allocate weights to the criteria.
4.
Develop the alternatives.
5.
Evaluate the alternatives.
6.
Select the best alternative.
The ability to produce novel
and useful ideas
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Helps people to:
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Better understand the problem
See problems others can’t see
Identify all viable alternatives
Identify alternatives that aren’t
readily apparent
Expertise
CreativeThinking
Skills
Intrinsic
Task
Motivation
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Proposes
that
individual
creativity
requires
expertise, creative-thinking skills and intrinsic
task motivation
Expertise – foundation for all creative work
Creative-thinking
skills
–
personality
characteristics
associated with creativity.
Intrinsic task motivation - desire to work on something
Bounded Rationality
Individuals make decisions by constructing
simplified models that extract the essential
features from problems without capturing
all their complexity.
Simpler than rational decision making,
composed of three steps:
1. Limited search for criteria and alternatives –
familiar criteria and easily found alternatives
2. Limited review of alternatives – focus alternatives,
similar to those already in effect
3. Satisficing – selecting the first alternative that is
“good enough”
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Overconfidence bias
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Anchoring bias
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Confirmation bias
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Availability bias
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Representative bias
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Escalation of Commitment bias
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Randomness Error
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Hindsight bias
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Overconfidence Bias
◦ Believing too much in our own ability to make
good decisions
◦ ‘no problem in judgment and decision making’
Anchoring Bias
◦ Using early, first received information as the
basis for making subsequent judgments
◦ a tendency to fixate on initial information as a
starting point.
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Confirmation Bias
◦ Using only the facts that support our decision
◦ a specific case of selective perception; we seek
out information that reaffirms our past choices,
and we discount information that contradicts
past judgments
Availability Bias
◦ Using information that is most readily at hand
◦ the tendency for people to base their
judgments on information that is readily
available to them
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Representative Bias
◦ Assessing the likelihood of an occurrence by
trying to match it with a preexisting category
using only the facts that support our decision
Escalation of Commitment
◦ In spite of new negative information, commitment
actually increases
◦ Increasing commitment to a previous decision in
spite of negative information.
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Randomness Error
◦ Creating meaning out of random events
◦ difficulty dealing with chance.
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Hindsight Bias
◦ Looking back, once the outcome has occurred, and
believing that you accurately predicted the outcome
of an event
◦ Hindsight = ability to see, after the event, what should have
been done
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An non-conscious process created out of
distilled experience
Increases with experience
Can be a powerful complement to rational
analysis in decision making
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Eight conditions for intuitive decision making –
When high level of uncertainty exists
When there is little precedent to draw on
When variables are less scientifically predictable
When ‘facts’ are limited
When facts don’t clearly point the way
When analytical data are of little use
When there are several plausible alternative solutions
from which to choose
When time is limited and there is pressure
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Directive – low tolerance for ambiguity and
seek rationality
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Analytic – greater tolerance for ambiguity
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Conceptual – tend to use data from multiple
sources and consider many alternatives
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Behavioral – strong concern for the people in
the organization and their development
Source: A.J. Rowe and J.D. Boulgarides, Managerial Decision
Making, (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1992), p. 29.
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Ethical Decision Criteria
◦ Utilitarianism
 Seeking the greatest good for the greatest number.
◦ Rights
 Respecting and protecting basic rights of individuals
such as whistleblowers.
◦ Justice
 Imposing and enforcing rules fairly and impartially.
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5.
Analyze the situation and adjust your decision
making style to fit the situation.
Be aware of biases and try to limit their impact.
Combine rational analysis with intuition to
increase decision-making effectiveness.
Don’t assume that your specific decision style is
appropriate to every situation.
Enhance personal creativity by looking for novel
solutions or seeing problems in new ways, and
using analogies.
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