SS474: Terrorism and Counterterrorism
Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11
• Wednesday 4 October:
Film: Inside 9/11
(E hour: All sections meet in TH348)
• Friday 6 October:
Book Review due
• Tuesday 10 October:
WPR
– Comprehensive
– Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc
• DC Trip Finalists – see list
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon
23 October 1983
“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of
another suicide attack on the Marines.”
• 241 Dead
• 105 Injured
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-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life
New York, World Trade Center
February 26, 1993
6 Dead, 1,042 Injured
Oklahoma City
Murrah Federal Building,
19 April 1995
168 Dead, 490 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas Attacks
Japan, 1994 & 1995
Matsumoto, Japan
March, 1994
7 Dead, 34 Injured
Tokyo, Japan
Teito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System)
March 20, 1995
12 Dead, 5,000 Injured
Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe.
Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin.
Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then
rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting,
twitching, and headache.
Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of
convulsive spasms.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
25 June 1996
• 19 Dead
• 240 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and Tanzania
August 1998
200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians dead
Over 5,000 injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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1999 LAX Attack Plan
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The Strategy of Terrorism
• Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic
impact, and less protected) such as:
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pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK
open markets & cafes in Israel
international airport, Sri Lanka
bus in Manila, the Philippines
shopping mall in southern Philippines
nightclub in Bali, Indonesia
banks in Istanbul, Turkey
hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia
nightclub in Berlin, Germany
– and, of course . . .
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New York City
& Washington, DC
September 11, 2001
2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Modern Trends in Global Terrorism
• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)
• Increasing use of suicide bombers
(the ultimate smart bomb)
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Karachi, Pakistan
May 8, 2002
Bus attack
14 Dead, including
11 French engineers
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June 14, 2002
Attack on U.S. Consulate
12 Dead
50 Injured
Bali, Indonesia
October 12, 2002
202 Dead
350 Injured
Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Casablanca, Morocco
May 17, 2003
44 Dead
107 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Jakarta, Indonesia
August 5, 2003
12 Dead
60 Injured
J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
November 8, 2003
3 simultaneous suicide car bomb
attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment
complex
April 21, 2004
Attack on Security
Services Headquarters
4 Dead
148 Injured
17 Dead
122 Injured
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Istanbul, Turkey
November 20, 2003
27 Dead
400 Injured
Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters
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Madrid, Spain
March 11, 2004
191 Dead
1,035 Injured
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Jakarta, Indonesia
September 9, 2004
9 Dead
173 Injured
Australian Embassy was primary target
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London, UK
July 7, 2005
54 Dead
716 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Why?
What’s the history, strategy, etc. of the
modern terrorism threat?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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AQ Pre-9/11
• What is al Qaeda’s strategy?
What are their strategic objectives?
• 1996 fatwa
– declaration of war, warned of presence of American and
British “Crusader forces”
• Saudi Arabia would become a beach head to impose a new
imperialism on the region to obtain its oil
– “It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the
top duty after faith and nothing should take priority over it”
– All ulema are “unanimous that it is an individual duty to
fight an invading enemy”
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AQ Pre-9/11
• 1998 Fatwa – shift from the near enemy to the
far enemy
• Bin Laden’s critical contribution = re-directing
energies of Jihadists toward attacking the U.S.
anywhere
• AQ and bin Laden do not want to be global
leader of terrorists; rather, provide a spark,
motivator, bring them under ideological umbrella
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AQ Pre-9/11
Appreciating the Strategic Story:
– Al Qaeda “proper" desires large attacks on US
– Al Qaeda is focused on US economy
– What about other groups & their objectives?
– US interests abroad remain vulnerable
– We are dealing with a strategic enemy
– Perceptions matter
– Long-view of the story is critical:
“Connecting the dots” vs. “Knowing the story
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ICE: AQ Timeline
In Groups of 4:
• Construct a timeline of key events leading
up to 9/11
• Demonstrate how early terrorist groups or
events have some relation to the events of
9/11
• Try to go as far back as 1968
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7/7
London
KSM is uncle of Yousef
KSM
Oplan
Bojinka
1st attack on
U.S. soil?
?
2004
3/11
Madrid
1985
2001
1998
bin Laden
Fatwa
9/11
2000
USS Cole
1995
Aum
Shinrikyo
(Tokyo)
Embassy
bombings
1996
bin Laden
Fatwa
Khobar
Towers
1999
Millennium
Plots
LAX, Jordan
Yousef
Important
conceptual
shift from
“near enemy”
to “far enemy”
1994
Air
France
#8969
1993
WTC
Bombing
Landmark
Plot
Somalia
paper tiger?
Focused U.S. security
policy towards
non-state actors and
WMD concerns
Islamic Terrorism Timeline: A Strategic View
1986
1983 1968
Beirut
Pan Am
(Tel Aviv) Embassy
& Marine
Barracks
lessons
learned?
AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats
• Three capabilities critical to 9/11 still exist
– Ability to identify and exploit a key gap in opponents’ defenses
– Effective and clever use of deception and denial
– Suicide attacks employed to ensure operation’s success
• Theoretically, a vast reservoir of trained recruits remains
available for activation/mobilization
– Tens of thousands jihadists trained in past decade
– Means and methods of terrorism widely disseminated
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AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats
• Method of attack
– Depends on which “Al Qaeda” you are dealing with
– Al Qaeda prefers coordinated attacks in waves
– Well-planned with strong reconnaissance efforts
Most likely means
• High yield explosives
• Vehicle delivery
Most difficult
• Unconventional weapons
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Consequence
• Detailed planning efforts
• Rehearsals
• Strong operational security
WMD
VBIED
IED
Probability
AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats
Al Qaeda of today is not the Al Qaeda of yesterday
– Robust organization – Now global social movement
– Strong command and control – Now loose direction
– Operational freedom – Now focused on operational
security
– Dangerous organization – Now still extremely
dangerous
Questions??
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