2015 TEPPC Study Program DRAFT for TAS Review Studies Work Group April 16, 2015 155 North 400 West, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84103-1114 2015 TEPPC Study Program 1 Table of Contents Appendix A – 2015 TEPPC Study Program ................................................................................................ 12 Base Cases ............................................................................................................................................. 12 High Priority Studies.............................................................................................................................. 13 Medium or Low Priority Studies ........................................................................................................... 17 “Conditional” Studies ............................................................................................................................ 20 Studies with yet to be Determined Priority ............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 2 Introduction This document presents and discusses details of the 2015 Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) Study Program. TEPPC is tasked with conducting a biennial transmission system study program (Study Program) as a component of WECC’s regional transmission planning process (RTEP). The goals, processes and procedures of the Study Program were crafted, in part, as a response to FERC Order No. 890 “Preventing Undue Discrimination and Preference in Transmission Service” (Order 890). One of the provisions of Order 890 is to give transmission system stakeholders the right to request a defined number of high priority studies annually. Recognizing that enforcement of this provision on a provider-by-provider basis would be costly, and could result in duplicative studies and could hinder sub-regional and regional coordination, FERC also allows transmission providers and stakeholders to cluster or batch requests for economic planning studies to enable efficient performance of such studies. The TEPPC Study Program, along with studies done by Transmission Providers and sub-regional planning groups (using FERC parlance for regional and sub-regional planning) together satisfy the requirements of Order 890, as appropriate to best meet the needs of stakeholder study requests. The Study Program is based on inputs from multiple sources, including requests from stakeholders that arise out of the provisions of Order 890. The 2015 Study Program has been prepared under the provisions of the TEPPC Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) Protocol (TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol). The Study Program for this year is the first year of a new biennial transmission study program. The goal of the biennial study program is to produce sets of study results that are analyzed and used in the preparation of a WECC Interconnection-wide Transmission Plan (WECC Plan). The Study Program for this year details the analytical activities that TEPPC will perform to evaluate the needs and weaknesses of transmission system of the Western Interconnection under various conditions for future 10-year and 20-year time horizons. Two time horizons will be studied as part of the 2014 Study Program. W Ten-year Horizon (2026) – The 10-year time horizon will be used to evaluate the impact of options to meet existing and potential future energy policies, and the impact technology changes and external drivers may have on transmission needs and costs in the Western Interconnection. All 10-year studies start with the 10-year Common Case, ensuring a common point of reference exists for all 10-year studies performed and analyzed in the process of creating a WECC Plan. The Common Case is based on stakeholder-provided assumptions regarding loads, generation and transmission. The 10-year studies are conducted with a production cost model. 20-year Horizon (2036) – A set of studies representing potential energy futures for a 20-year study horizon will be evaluated using the WECC Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT), a capital expansion model (CXM). A desired outcome, in part, of the long-term studies is to identify E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 3 those decisions that need to be made now in order to realize the potential energy futures being evaluated. The Study Program is developed to: 1) 2) 3) 4) Respond to requests received under the provisions of the TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol. Incorporate relevant study needs of regional planning groups, state authorities, transmission providers and generators. Develop needed models for production cost and transmission utilization studies. Support the objectives of the WECC Strategic Plan by providing useful transmission insights into the implications of major policy and technology changes for the future of the western power system. The list of proposed studies outlined in this document was prepared by the Technical Advisory Subcommittee (TAS) from an initial clustering and consolidation of study requests prepared by the Studies Work Group (SWG) for this planning year. The list includes study requests submitted under the provisions of the TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol during the request window period that ended January 31 of this planning year (Study Request Open Season). The result of this process is the proposed Study Program described herein. Prior to finalizing the Study Program, TEPPC will review stakeholder feedback and requests for reconsideration. Transmission Planning and the Study Program The objective of TEPPC’s transmission expansion studies is to provide an Interconnection-wide perspective on future transmission needs of the Western Interconnection. This information is useful to transmission project developers, energy service providers, regulators, policymakers, and other parties involved in making public policy and investment decisions that impact the Western Interconnection. Since TEPPC’s work is one component of the many activities involved in the planning, building, and operating of the transmission system, this section first covers WECC’s planning activities. Following this, there is a brief description of the adaptive planning cycle of the TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol. Finally, the specific study methodology that will be used for this year’s TEPPC Study Program is described. TEPPC’s work complements and coordinates with other transmission planning related activities. These include state and provincial integrated resource planning (IRP), regional planning group plans, state and provincial renewable portfolio standards (RPS), analyses of renewables integration by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Western Electricity Industry Leaders (WEIL) studies, and the numerous initiatives by the Western Governors’ Association (WGA). W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 4 Purpose of Transmission Planning Electric power networks are a unique part of our national infrastructure. With current technology, long-distance high-voltage lines are not buried, so they become a visible part of the landscape through which they pass. Transmission facilities also have very long lives, so decisions made today have longlasting effects. Therefore, the objective of long-term transmission planning is to make the best network design decisions today after considering possible future needs and expansion options. Few, if any, 10year or 20-year transmission plans will come to fruition as originally conceived. However, by planning for possible future needs, flexibility is built into the network’s design that allows options to be exercised and adaptation to occur as future conditions are revealed. TEPPC’s activities are an integral part of the Western Interconnection’s overall approach to Interconnection-wide planning of the transmission system, which has two major aspects for consideration: 1) 2) System reliability—characterized as “keeping the lights on” while responding in a predictable fashion to both planned and unplanned outages to generation and transmission system elements. System utilization,—a measure of the economic performance of the transmission system. System production cost studies and associated capital cost estimates for those studies provide answers to the question, “While operating within the bounds of reliable operation, how well does the transmission system perform to deliver electricity services to consumers at a reasonable cost?” Regional Transmission Expansion Planning WECC’s RTEP project is described in the TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol. The TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol governs the transmission planning process used by TEPPC to support transmission providers in meeting the transmission planning obligations of Attachment K to the transmission providers’ Open Access Transmission Tariffs (OATT). TEPPC Study Program Development The Study Program for this year represents the first year of a new biennial RTEP study cycle. The development of the annual Study Program is an adaptive process that uses results from previous study programs to not only improve the quality of the cases, but to add new models or modify study methodology to continually improve the results produced by each successive study program. This expansion of planning activity is made possible, in part, by lessons learned in previous study programs. Figure 1 is taken from the TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol and presents the process for developing a Study Program. The inputs presented in Figure 1 are used by the SWG to develop a W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 5 consolidated list of studies. In preparing the consolidated list, the SWG looks for opportunities to combine requests to meet multiple needs with a reduced number of studies. The consolidated list is reviewed by TAS and forwarded to TEPPC for consideration. All stakeholders, including the parties who submitted study requests, are invited to attend TEPPC meetings and participate in the prioritization discussion. The consolidated list of studies is then adjusted based on the TEPPC discussion and posted for review. Stakeholders are given an opportunity to request reconsideration of TEPPC’s proposed Study Program before it is finalized. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 6 Figure 1. Study Program Development Process Lessons Learned from Previous Study Cycles Results from previous Study Programs will be used to create the current Study Program which will inform the WECC Plan. As such, results produced from previous study programs will provide an analytical foundation from which new studies can be performed and analyzed for use in the creation of W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 7 a new WECC Plan. The list of proposed studies outlined in this document has been developed and prioritized to reflect this goal. In addition, the goal of each study program is to improve on previous study programs. As such, the studies outlined in this document consider new issues/topics of Interconnection-wide significance, and address gaps left by past study programs and plans. Other Study Activities In addition to the studies described in this report, TEPPC has ongoing activities that support its Study Program effort. • • • WECC staff led effort to conduct historical analysis of system utilization.1 The SWG and Data Work Group (DWG) build the study databases needed for simulation studies. The Modeling Work Group (MWG) develops improved simulation models based on needs identified in past studies. Each of these activities is an important element of TEPPC’s adaptive approach to developing transmission planning studies. Types of Study Cases Prior to the formation of TEPPC, a number of Western Interconnection transmission studies were completed using production cost simulations. These studies stimulated an interest in economic evaluation of transmission expansion and led to the formation of TEPPC. These studies were also influential in triggering an interest in a number of major transmission projects now being developed across the Western Interconnection. However, one of the concerns expressed regarding the early studies was the inclusion of potentially redundant generation and transmission expansion proposals. The presence of surplus generation and transmission tended to mask possible congestion – eliminating it before it could be identified. To avoid this problem, the SWG uses a study methodology consisting of two types of study cases: portfolio cases and expansion cases. The relationship between the two types of study cases is shown in Figure 2 for a set of illustrative, hypothetical cases. 1 Historical analysis of actual flows has been conducted by WECC for the past 12 years. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 8 Figure 2. Simulation Study Case Relationships Common Case and Reference Case The Common Case and Reference Case are the Study Cases from which all other Study Cases are built. The Common Case is the 10-year “expected future” based on a compilation of all the existing and 10year projected load, resources, and transmission. The Reference Case is the 20-year “possible energy future” extending the trajectory of the 10-year Common Case assumptions another ten years into the future. Portfolio Cases Portfolio Cases (PC) are developed to represent a possible pattern of future load and resource development. The type and location of incremental resources will be different among portfolio cases, based on the analysis of the WECC Loads & Resources information. Load and general policy changes can also be included to reflect varying futures. For the network topology, portfolio cases use a representation of the existing transmission plus new transmission for which construction is sufficiently certain in the given horizon year. From the Common Case, additional Portfolio Cases are developed that represent other possible patterns of load and resource developments. The portfolio cases provide a hypothetical portfolio of resources that balance load and generation. In past TEPPC studies, the incremental resources were added in three groups: 1) renewable resources needed to meet the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) of a given state in the study year, 2) more likely planned resources listed in LRS reports, and 3) enough conventional generation to achieve loadresource balance. Evaluation of a portfolio case is used to identify binding constraints that may suggest W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 9 what additional transmission is needed to alleviate congestion. In other words, these are used to evaluate the impact of different future market, regulatory, and policy conditions on the need for transmission network expansion. Sensitivity Cases Sensitivity Cases are typically a set of studies consists of “single-parameter” changes within the load, resource, and transmission assumptions of a Study Case. By changing a single variable or specific set of variables such as hydro conditions or load, this set of studies informs stakeholders about how deviations in the study case assumptions can impact on the initial study case’s results. Expansion Cases Expansion Cases (EC) are developed from portfolio cases by adding incremental transmission and/or storage projects, or any other incremental piece of infrastructure that may provide operational or economic benefit. This is the second step in the transmission study analysis to investigate the effect that various transmission expansion options may have on system utilization. By reporting the impact on system utilization and a capital cost estimate of different alternatives, stakeholders will be more able to judge their interest in various projects and provide a basis for further project studies. Power Flow Export Cases Power Flow (PF) Export Cases are power flow models (PFM) that represent the system condition of a specific hour within a production cost study case’s simulation. Study Cases “Study Case” generically describes other Study Cases that don’t fall into the above mentioned types of study cases. Varies numerous inputs and/or assumptions of a specific study case to evaluate the aggregate impacts (typically built from the Common Case) Elements and Themes of the this Study Program The consolidated list of proposed study cases prepared by the SWG and TAS is provided in Appendix A. Because of the large number of study requests, only a limited number of study cases were given a high priority, indicating the intent to complete them within the current study year. The remaining studies were ranked as medium priority and will be completed as time permits. An explanation of each proposed study cluster and general study approach is located at the beginning of Appendix A. Once the Study Program is approved by TEPPC, the study formulation effort is kicked off in a “scoping call” where the exact study specifications, timeline, and central study questions are developed by SWG leadership, WECC staff, and the study requestor(s). TEPPC will rely on a number of W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 10 study requestors to provide data needed for its study cases. Requests for this data will be communicated clearly and in a timely fashion via the Study Scoping Form (Appendix D) that is filled out in the scoping calls. General Study Themes This section describes the general study themes of the study programs (Appendices A and B). The study themes represent the areas of interest where TEPPC would like to focus its attention while leveraging both WECC analysis and studies being conducted by others. Studying the Important Challenges to the Grid Stakeholder requests influenced the Study Program to examine some important trends that pose major challenges to the grid over the 10-year and 20-year study horizons. In particular, key topics to be addressed are increasing levels of distributed generation, increasing levels of renewable generation to meet evolving policy objectives, and the potential increase in coal plant retirements or displacements (e.g., not explicitly retired as part of a study assumption, but rather displaced due to an indirect study assumption such as high carbon costs) in the Western Interconnection. These scenarios strive to raise and explore important questions about the reliability of the grid and whether the future system has sufficient flexibility to meet increased levels of variable generation. The use of transmission expansions to mitigate future stresses introduced by load growth and resource build-outs has and should continue to be the focus of interconnection-wide planning efforts. In addition, it is important to explore and study how new resource and transmission technologies (e.g., storage facilities, enhancements to thermal ramping capabilities, synchrophasors, advantages of DC transmission lines) can be used to mitigate future issues. Unifying Planning Efforts and Tools The desire to analyze the reliability and flexibility of the future grid requires adding new innovative tools of analysis to transmission expansion planning. TEPPC has augmented its traditional use of the production cost model (PCM) with a capital expansion model (CXM) by integrating a Long Term Planning Tool (LTPT) developed by WECC to study potential long term energy futures (e.g., 20-years). WECC is also working to further integrate its PCM, CXM, and power flow model (PFM). The PCM is ideal for learning how efficiently the system may be utilized economically and where weaknesses exist and under what conditions. The PFM is ideal for examining the reliability of the system in greater detail through power flow (PF) analyses which could include contingency analysis, congestion analysis, reactive voltage support, transfer capabilities, and dynamic stability, to name a few. The CXM, using the LTPT, is ideal for gaining an understanding of potential energy futures and what investment decisions might be needed in terms of future generation and transmission infrastructure. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 11 In order to improve continuity between 10-year, 20-year, adequacy, and reliability studies, mechanisms and processes must be developed to strengthen the linkages between the WECC planning models to create more cohesive and holistic sets of models. These mechanisms and processes must enable a seamless conversion and exchange of data inputs and results between the various planning models so that studies can be performed more holistically (e.g., build a PCM from the results of a CXM and build a PFM from the results of a PCM). Aging assets and retirement of major base load resources The focus of some of the study cases is on learning and understanding the impacts of future generating resource retirements in the 10-year horizon. The Western Interconnection needs to understand the reliability and environmental implications associated with decisions to retire or maintain aging base load resources. Collaboration with other efforts beyond WECC The core cases (10-year Common Case and 20-year Reference Case) serve as foundations for other transmission expansion studies in the Western Interconnection. In addition to running and analyzing the cases in the Study Programs, TEPPC is committed to maintain close ties with other study efforts to provide support and maximize synergies. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 12 Appendix A – 2015 TEPPC Study Program The following high priority studies will be undertaken by TEPPC and WECC. Some studies are focused on only 10-year production cost model runs, while others ask for both 10- and 20-year analyses. Assumptions for studies featuring 10-year and 20-year analyses have the opportunity to be aligned in this study cycle. 10-year production cost studies are designated with “2026PC” or “2026EC” case IDs, 20-year capital expansion studies are designated with “2036PC” case IDs, and power flow (PF) export studies are designated with “PF” case IDs. WECC has taken steps to develop a common dataset and the analytical tools to link production cost modeling results into power flow analysis for the purpose of analyzing reliability issues. The ability to move from production cost modeling to power flow analysis has been referred to as performing a “roundtrip” analysis. At this time, however, TEPPC and WECC do not have the capabilities to perform the roundtrip from production cost modeling to power flow analysis. The studies requesting a roundtrip analysis are designated with a new “Conditional” priority in the 2015 Study Program. The Conditional priority recognizes the importance and desire to the proposed studies but acknowledges that it is not technically possible for WECC staff to run such roundtrip studies because of current limitations in the data sets and experience in using both sets of modeling tools. If WECC develops the capability to perform the roundtrip capability, these studies would convert to the High priority status. Common Case and Reference Case Case ID Case Summary Common Case and Sensitivities 2026PC01 2026 Common Case 2036PC01 2036 Reference Case W E S T E R N E Priority Requester(s) High High WECC WECC L E C T R I C I T Y Comments 10-year “expected future”, update 2024 Common Case Jumps off from 2026 Common Case C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 13 High Priority Case ID Case Summary “Single Variable” Sensitivities Priority Requester(s) 2026PC02 10-year Increased Load High/Pending PG&E 2026PC03 10-year Decreased Load High/Pending PG&E 2026PC04 10-year Increased Hydro High PG&E 2026PC05 10-year Decreased Hydro High PG&E 2026PC06 10-year Increased Natural Gas Price High PG&E 2026PC07 10-year Decreased Natural Gas Price High PG&E 2026PC08 10-year Increased CO2 Price High PG&E 2026PC09 10-year Decreased CO2 Price High PG&E High PacifiCorp, SPSC/WIRAB, High Plains Express Comments Pending TAS resolution of on-going discussions2 Coal Retirement / Low Carbon 2026PC10 10-year Coal Retirement / Low Carbon Future Refresh 2024 coal retirement cases 2 TAS Work Groups currently discussing three options: (1) simple +/- west-wide percent change for “robustness test”, (2) developing more complex study case to represent likely extreme load futures (load & related impacts), and (3) sub-annual timeframe of extreme load (e.g., one or several extreme load days). W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program Case ID 14 Case Summary Priority 2026EC10 Add High Plains Express Requester(s) Comments [Bill Pascoe, comment receved 4/8/2015] I've taken a quick look at the draft study plan and am generally satisfied with the prioritization. My only significant concern is with the High Plains Express cases that are assigned a "High" priority. These are the High Plains Express only project-specific cases in the "High" category, the rest are ranked as "Medium". I can see no good reason for singling out HPX for this special treatment. HPX has been studied in past TEPPC study cycles as have TransWest, Centennial, etc. High 20-year Coal Retirement / Low High Carbon Future High Renewables West-wide & Test Possible Mitigations 2026PC11 10-year High RE west-wide High 10-year High RE west-wide, 2026EC11a High consolidate BAs 2036PC10 W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y SPSC/WIRAB Jumps off of 10-year case SPSC/WIRAB SPSC/WIRAB High Plains Express C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program Case ID 15 Case Summary Priority 2026EC11b Add High Plains Express W E S T E R N E Comments [Bill Pascoe, comment receved 4/8/2015] I've taken a quick look at the draft study plan and am generally satisfied with the prioritization. My only significant concern is with the High Plains Express cases that are assigned a "High" priority. These are the High Plains Express only project-specific cases in the "High" category, the rest are ranked as "Medium". I can see no good reason for singling out HPX for this special treatment. HPX has been studied in past TEPPC study cycles as have TransWest, Centennial, etc. High 10-year High RE west-wide, increase flexible resources 10-year High RE west-wide, increase 2026EC11d RE geographic diversity 10-year High RE west-wide, add 2026EC11e storage resources Increased Renewables in California 10-year 5% increase in California RPS (38% total, ~+14,000 GWh) supplied 2026PC12 by additional renewables in WY and CO 2026EC11c Requester(s) High SPSC/WIRAB High SPSC/WIRAB High SPSC/WIRAB Open for revision per review of the status of CAISO studies to ensure these High Plains Express studies are complementary and not duplicative to those studies. High L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program Case ID 16 Case Summary Priority 2026EC12 Add High Plains Express Requester(s) Comments [Bill Pascoe, comment receved 4/8/2015] I've taken a quick look at the draft study plan and am generally satisfied with the prioritization. My only significant concern is with the High Plains Express cases that are assigned a "High" priority. These are the High Plains Express only project-specific cases in the "High" category, the rest are ranked as "Medium". I can see no good reason for singling out HPX for this special treatment. HPX has been studied in past TEPPC study cycles as have TransWest, Centennial, etc. High West Coast Offshore Resources 2026PC13 10-year +3000MW offshore wind/wave & tidal wave resources High Oregon Wave Energy Trust 2036PC13 20-year offshore wind/wave & tidal wave breakthrough High Oregon Wave Energy Trust 10-year Impact of De-Rating COI by ~30% High PG&E Opportunity for DWG investigation: Resource & transmission data exists, just a matter of investigating/reviewing Opportunity for DWG investigation: Resource & transmission data exists, just a matter of investigating/reviewing Other 2026PC14 W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C CDWR has discontinued participation in PACI RAS, which reduces COI capability O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 17 Medium or Low Priority Case ID Case Summary High Renewables: New Mexico Priority 2026PC20 Medium 10-year High RE in New Mexico Requester(s) Clean Line Energy Partners Clean Line Energy Partners Comments Re-analysis of a past study case 2026EC20a Add Centennial West Medium 2026EC20b Add Western Spirit Medium Clean Line Energy Partners Re-run/refresh of 2014 Study Program study case. Connects wind farm to four corners - not inter-regional. Medium Absaroka Energy Re-run/refresh of 2014 Study Program study case Medium Absaroka Energy Re-run/refresh of 2014 Study Program study case Medium Absaroka Energy Re-run/refresh of 2014 Study Program study case Medium TransWest Express Medium TransWest Express Medium High Plains Express High Renewables: Montana 10-year Add Montana RE & swap out Pacific Northwest RE, add Gordon 2026PC21 Butte Pumped Storage. Remove Path 8 upgrades if in Common Case 10-year Replace Colstrip with Montana RE, add Gordon Butte 2026PC22 Pumped Storage. Remove Path 8 upgrades conditional per Common Case 10-year Add more Montana RE & 2026PC23 swap out Pacific Northwest RE, add Colstrip South transmission expansion High Renewables: Wyoming 10-year Add 3000 MW of Wyoming 2026PC24 wind Add TransWest Express 2026EC24 High Renewables: Wyoming & Colorado 10-year Add 12,000GWh of Colorado 2026PC25 wind W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C Re-analysis of a past study case Re-run/refresh of 2014 Study Program study case Re-run/refresh of 2014 Study Program study case Continuation of 2014 Study Program study case O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program Case ID 18 Case Summary 2026EC25 Add High Plains Express Priority Requester(s) Medium High Plains Express High Renewables West-wide & Test Possible Mitigations 10-year High RE west-wide & create 2026PC26 Low EIM High Plains Express Study Cases SPSC/WIRAB 2026PC27 10-year EPA 111(d) Scenario Low High Plains Express 2026PC28 10-year “Special High Plains Express Study Case” Low High Plains Express Low High Plains Express Low High Plains Express Low High Plains Express Low High Plains Express 2026PC29 2026PC30 2026PC31 2026PC32 10-year EPA 111(d) scenario with Special High Plains Express Study Case 10-year +12,000GWh of CO wind with High Plains Express & Special High Plains Express Study Case 10-year Re-run 2024EC25-1 PCM with Special High Plains Express Study Case 10-year Re-run 2024EC25-2 PCM with Special High Plains Express Study Case W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C Comments Continuation of 2014 Study Program study case EIM is beyond WECC TEP tools/models (i.e., requires intra-hour PCM) Refer to others’ analysis. EPA 111(d) assumptions will be included, to the extent possible, in the “Common Case” Partnered with SPSC High RE Westwide. Assume significant increase in BA Coordination (zero hurdle rates?), higher carbon taxes, higher cost of natural gas and lower capital cost for renewable resources (Wind, Storage, and Solar) O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program Case ID 2026PC33 19 Case Summary 10-year Increased Renewables for California supplied by additional renewables in WY, CO, AZ, & NM with High Plains Express& Special High Plains Express Study Case Priority Requester(s) Low High Plains Express Low Great Basin Transmission Comments Other 2036PC34 20-year System-wide increase in north to south transfer capability: Boardman-Hemingway+SWIP-N, increased PDCI capacity, increased north-to-south capacity of Gateway projects W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C Uncertain on how to do with LTPT. Maybe as a 10-year PCM? O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 20 “Conditional” Priority Case ID Case Summary Coal Retirement / Low Carbon 2026PF10 10-year Power flow analyses of 2024 or 2026 coal retirement study case High DG West-wide 10-year High DG Power flow 2026PF35 analyses - focus on voltage and frequency response issues High Renewables: Wyoming & Colorado Priority Requester(s) Comments Conditional PacifiCorp, SPSC/WIRAB, High Plains Express See above for current treatment & future possibilities. Conditional SPSC/WIRAB See above for current treatment & future possibilities. Continuation of 2014 Study Program study case. See above for current treatment & future possibilities. Continuation of 2014 Study Program study case. See above for current treatment & future possibilities. 2026PF36 10-year Analyze reliability or stability issues in 2024EC25-1 (PF Analyses) Conditional High Plains Express 2026PF37 10-year Analyze reliability or stability issues in 2024EC25-2 (PF Analyses) Conditional High Plains Express Conditional High Plains Express See above for current treatment & future possibilities. Conditional High Plains Express See above for current treatment & future possibilities. Analyze reliability or stability issues (PF analyses) in adding 12,000GWh 2026PF25 of Colorado wind & High Plains Express Analyze reliability or stability issues (PF analyses) of 10-year Increased 2026PF12 Renewables for California supplied by additional renewables in WY, CO, AZ, & NM W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 21 Appendix B - Glossary of TEPPC Terminology AC: Alternating Current – A type of electrical current, the direction of which is reversed at regular intervals or cycles. In the United States, the standard is 120 reversals or 60 cycles per second, denoted as 60 Hz (Hertz). DOE: U.S. Department of Energy – The federal agency designed “to advance the national, economic, and energy security of the United States; to promote scientific and technological innovation in support of that mission; and to ensure the environmental cleanup of the national nuclear weapons complex.” DSM: Demand-Side Management – The term for all activities or programs undertaken by a LoadServing Entity or its customers to influence the amount or timing of electricity they use. DWG: Data Work Group – The DWG collects and verifies data used in the TEPPC database for economic studies of transmission planning. This data is made available to SPGs, developers, regulators, and others. EDTF: Environmental Data Task Force – A task force created by the SPSG to develop recommendations on the type, quality, and sources of data on wild lands, wildlife, cultural resources and potential water resources that can be used in transmission planning processes. EE: Energy Efficiency – Programs and policies designed to reduce electric energy consumption or increase the efficiency of electric loads. FERC: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission – An independent federal agency that regulates the interstate transmission of natural gas, oil, and electricity. FERC also regulates natural gas and hydropower projects. Generation – The process of producing electricity by transforming other forms or sources of energy into electrical energy; measured in kilowatt-hours. IRP: Integrated Resource Plan – A plan developed by an electric power provider, sometimes as required by a public regulatory commission or agency, that defines the short- and long-term capacity additions (supply-side) and demand-side management programs that it will undertake to meet projected energy demands. Load Center: A geographic area with a concentrated electrical load. LSE: Load-Serving Entity – Secures energy and transmission service (and related Interconnected Operations Services) to serve the electrical demand and energy requirements of its end-use customers. MW: Megawatt – 1,000 kilowatts, or 1.0 million watts; standard measure of electric power plant generating capacity. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 22 MWG: Modeling Work Group – The MWG evaluates and proposes improved models for production cost simulation. NERC: North American Electric Reliability Corporation – NERC is the electric reliability organization certified by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to establish and enforce reliability standards for the Bulk-Power System. Path, or Transmission Path: A single or set of transmission lines with an established rating. There are 66 WECC-rated paths in the Western Interconnection. Paths are analogous to the term “flowgate” used in other parts of North America. PCM: Production Cost Model – An analytic representation of an electrical generation and transmission system used to determine the most efficient dispatch of generation to meet system loads within the reliability constraints on power system operations. Renewable Generation – Energy derived from resources that are regenerative or for all practical purposes cannot be depleted. ROW: Right of Way – A corridor of land on which electric lines may be located. The Transmission Owner may own the land in fee, own an easement, or have certain franchise, prescription, or license rights to construct and maintain lines. RPS: Renewable Portfolio Standard – A regulation that requires an established level of production or purchase of energy from renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. Scenario – A plausible future that is defined by various economic, social, political, and technological factors. RPCG: Regional Planning Coordination Group – Coordinates regional planning activities of mutual interest related to TEPPC activities. RPCG Common Case Transmission Assumptions (CCTA) – The RPCG facilitated the preparation of and developed the criteria for the RPCG Common Case Transmission Assumptions. The list identified projects having a high-probability of being constructed by the 10-year study horizon year. These projects provide an assumed minimum transmission system starting point for TEPPC’s future planning studies, and are included as inputs into the WECC 10-Year Regional Transmission Plan. SPG: Subregional Planning Group – An organization that coordinates planned transmission system changes within a defined geographical area in the Western Interconnection. WECC currently recognizes nine SPGs in the Western Interconnection: 1) 2) W Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO); British Columbia Coordinated Planning Group (BCCPG); E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 23 California Independent System Operator (CAISO); Colorado Coordinated Planning Group (CCPG); ColumbiaGrid; California Transmission Planning Group (CTPG); Northern Tier Transmission Group (NTTG); Sierra Subregional Planning Group (SSPG); and Southwest Area Transmission (SWAT). SPSC: State-Provincial Steering Committee – The SPSC is composed of appointees from each state and province in the Western Interconnection, and comprises one-third of the SPSG membership. The Western States’ Water Council and the Western Governors’ Wildlife Council are ex-officio members of the SPSC. The purpose of the SPSC is to provide input to Western Interconnection transmission planning and analysis. SPSG: Scenario Planning Steering Group – The SPSG is a multi-constituency steering group that provides strategic guidance and direct participation in TEPPC activities. The purpose of the SPSG is to provide: 1) strategic guidance to TEPPC; 2) scenarios to be modeled in transmission planning studies; 3) modeling tools to be used; and 4) key assumptions to be used in creating and reviewing the scenarios. Stakeholder – A person or entity interested or wishing to participate in WECC’s planning activities. Study Case – A set of load, resource, and network topology conditions used to model the performance of the Western Interconnection transmission grid. Study Program – A set of studies, developed under the provision of the TEPPC Transmission Planning Protocol, to be completed by TEPPC within that study year. Each Study Program is developed based on consideration and prioritization of all study requests received for that year. SWG: Studies Work Group – The SWG directs studies for which TEPPC is the study lead, establishes assumptions, and confirms methodology. TAS: Technical Advisory Subcommittee – TAS collects and disseminates data for historic and forwardlooking planning studies. TAS subgroups include the Data Work Group, Modeling Work Group, and Studies Work Group. TEPPC: Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee – A WECC Board committee that conducts and facilitates economic transmission planning for the Western Interconnection. TEPPC activities include fulfilling transmission owner/operator and Subregional Planning Group planning requirements under FERC Order 890. TEPPC has a balanced membership comprised of individuals from WECCmember organizations and stakeholders. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 24 Transmission – An interconnected group of lines and associated equipment for the movement or transfer of electric energy between points of supply and points at which it is transformed for delivery to customers or is delivered to other electric systems. WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council – The Regional Entity responsible for coordinating and promoting Bulk Electric System reliability in the Western Interconnection. WGA: Western Governors’ Association – An independent, nonpartisan organization of Governors representing 19 Western states, and three U.S.-flag Pacific islands. The WGA identifies and addresses key policy and governance issues in natural resources, the environment, human services, economic development, international relations, and public management. Western Interconnection – The interconnected electrical system that encompasses the provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, the northern portion of Baja California (Mexico), and all or portions of the 14 Western states in between. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2015 TEPPC Study Program 25 Appendix C - TEPPC 2015 Study Program Study Case Scoping Form The purpose of this document is to define the overall scope of a TEPPC study case so that the study requestor, TEPPC, and the WECC staff have a common understanding of the expectations and limitations of the study that will be completed. Study Case Name Case Number Study Requestor(s) Date of Adoption Study Timeframe Priority Study Case Summary(ies) Key Questions to be Answered/Addressed by the Study This information will be used to identify data inputs required for the study as well as key outputs that should be communicated back to the study requestor. 1. 2. Study Case Tasks Requestor Task(s) 1. 2. WECC Staff or Work Group Task(s) 1. 2. Responsible Party(ies) Completion Date Responsible Party(ies) Completion Date Key Limitations What issues will not be addressed by this TEPPC study due to limitations in time, resources, or modeling tools? 1. 2. Other Study Information Link to background material (reports/analysis completed in support of study) and/or study results W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L