The New Orleans Index at Ten
Measuring Greater New Orleans’ Progress toward
Prosperity
Allison Plyer
Nihal Shrinath
Vicki Mack
Sources: http://www.metairie.com/Hurricane%20Katrina%20Photos/New%20Orleans/
http://www.rothkochapel.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=394%3Aa-tale-of-two-cities-from-thesuperdome-to-the-astrodome&catid=1%3Apublic-programs&Itemid=65
Metro New Orleans
Dr. George Dr. Allison
Plyer
Ben
“Weak City” Metros
Aspirational Metros
Summary
•
The metro New Orleans economy is taking first steps towards a new
trajectory—with sustained job growth, an increasingly diverse set of
industry clusters, and high rates of entrepreneurship.
•
In metro New Orleans, employment and income disparities between
African Americans and whites are starker than national disparities,
and poverty is increasing in surrounding parishes—undermining
social cohesion and resilience capacity across the region.
•
New Orleans has seen a surge in youth investments, increased
convictions of public corruption, and much needed reductions in
crime and improvements in schools—all of which may yield
increased community competence and problem-solving capacity in
the years ahead.
•
Expanding bike lanes point to greater appreciation for sustainability.
But disappearing wetlands and encroaching salinity put a spotlight
on the importance of coastal restoration and urban water
management.
Economic Growth
•
The metro New Orleans economy is taking first steps towards a new
trajectory—with sustained job growth, an increasingly diverse set of
industry clusters, and high rates of entrepreneurship.
•
In metro New Orleans, employment and income disparities between
African Americans and whites are starker than national disparities,
and poverty is increasing in surrounding parishes—undermining
social cohesion and resilience capacity across the region.
•
New Orleans has seen a surge in youth investments, increased
convictions of public corruption, and much needed reductions in
crime and improvements in schools—all of which may yield
increased community competence and problem-solving capacity in
the years ahead.
•
Expanding bike lanes point to greater appreciation for sustainability.
But disappearing wetlands and encroaching salinity put a spotlight
on the importance of coastal restoration and urban water
management.
By 2014, metro New Orleans had reached 5 percent above its 2008, prerecession jobs level, while the nation reached only 1 percent above its 2008
level.
15
Source: The Data Center analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For every “traded” or “export” job there are two local/government jobs. And
traded clusters typically have higher average wages than local/government
clusters.
JOBS
METRO NEW ORLEANS, 2014
AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGES
METRO NEW ORLEANS, 2014
$66,410
$70,000
$60,000
$50,192
$50,000
46,611
Government Jobs
169,607
347,182
$37,369
$40,000
Government Jobs
Traded Jobs
Local Jobs
Traded Jobs
$30,000
Local Jobs
$20,000
$10,000
$Government
Jobs
16
Traded Jobs
Local Jobs
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from EMSI and The U.S. Cluster Mapping Project.
Jobs in knowledge-based clusters have grown substantially since 2010 including in construction
products & services (an essential part of the water management cluster), video production, and
electric power generation, which have grown 14%, 90%, and 22% respectively.
17
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from EMSI, The U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, and Moody’s Analytics.
Local clusters naturally rise and fall in relation to population increases and
declines. Most pay lower than average wages.
19
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from EMSI and The U.S. Cluster Mapping Project.
Following Katrina, average wages in metro New Orleans rose to meet the
national average for the first time since 1985, but have since slipped to 4
percent below.
20
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the Regional Economic Information System, BEA data.
Productivity in metro New Orleans has been consistently higher than the
U.S., and it grew even higher post-Karina, to 58% above the U.S. by 2013.
21
Source: The Data Center Analysis of data from Moody’s Economy.com Database (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CES,
QCEW; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).
New Orleans airport traffic rebounded well from the Great Recession and has
grown 22 percent since 2008, well above most aspirational metros and the
nation.
22
Source: The Data Center Analysis of data from Air Carrier Statistics Database, Office of Airline Information,
Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Business starts-ups have dipped post recession, but metro New Orleans rates
continue to exceed national rates by 64 percent and aspirational metros by
40 percent.
23
Source: The Data Center Analysis of data from Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity.
Note: Data is not available for eight of the 57 “weak city” metros.
Venture capital funding has doubled in metro New Orleans from $16 per
capita in 2010 to $32 in 2014, but is only a fraction of that in competitive
metro Austin.
24
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from Mattermark, the U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census &
Population Estimates 2006-2009, 2011-2014.
By 2013, only 27 percent of adults in metro New Orleans had at least a 4year degree compared to 30 percent nationwide.
25
Sources: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American Community
Survey 2013.
In 2003, LA’s appropriations per full time enrollment—at $8,886 (in 2014$)—
were 14% below the nation. By 2014, funding had fallen to $5,127—22%
below the nation.
26
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from State Higher Education Executive Officers’ Association’s State Higher
Education Finance: FY 2014 Report.
Job centers have shifted across the region. Parishes upriver and on the north
shore are now home to 24 percent of all the metro’s jobs.
27
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from Moody's Analytics (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CES,
QCEW).
Inclusion
•
The metro New Orleans economy is taking first steps towards a new
trajectory—with sustained job growth, an increasingly diverse set of
industry clusters, and high rates of entrepreneurship.
•
In metro New Orleans, employment and income disparities between
African Americans and whites are starker than national disparities,
and poverty is increasing in surrounding parishes—undermining
social cohesion and resilience capacity across the region.
•
New Orleans has seen a surge in youth investments, increased
convictions of public corruption, and much needed reductions in
crime and improvements in schools—all of which may yield
increased community competence and problem-solving capacity in
the years ahead.
•
Expanding bike lanes point to greater appreciation for sustainability.
But disappearing wetlands and encroaching salinity put a spotlight
on the importance of coastal restoration and urban water
management.
Median household income for whites in metro New Orleans is on par with
whites nationally. But income for blacks in 2013 was 20 percent lower than
blacks nationally, and thus 54 lower than whites locally.
29
Sources: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American Community
Survey 2013.
In metro New Orleans, smaller shares of white and black adults regardless of
gender, have bachelor’s degrees than in aspirational metros.
31
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American Community
Survey 2013.
While employment
for white males
the N. O.
on par with
Employment
ratesin differ
bymetro
raceis and
aspirational metros at 77% , black male employment at 57% is below
XXX
aspirational gender.
metros (62%)
and has not significantly increased since 2000.
33
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American Community Survey
2013.
n.s.
n.s.
n.s.
n.s.
n.s.
n.s.
n.s.
33
n.s.
Despite significant decreases post-Katrina, jail incarceration rates in Orleans
Parish more than twice as high as the national rate as of 2013.
34
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics: Annual Survey of
Jails; Prisoners Series; U.S. Census Bureau: Population Estimates Program.
The percent of the city’s households that are middle and upper class has
increased from 44 to 46 since 1999, but 53 percent have income in the two
lowest national quintiles.
35
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American Community Survey
2013; U.S. Census Bureau Historical Income Tables: Households; HUD Fair Market Rents.
The share of New Orleans’ white households in the top national income
quintile grew from 25% in 1999 to 30% in 2013. Black households saw
increases only in the lowest income quintile.
37
New Orleans is more unequal than the national average. The ratio of the
income of the top 95% of households to the bottom 20% is 15:1 in New
Orleans. It’s 9:1 for the U.S.
39
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community
Survey, 2010 & 2013.
The share of the metro’s poor that lives in suburbs continues to expand,
rising from 46 percent in 1999 to 59 percent by 2013.
41
Source: The Data Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American Community Survey 2013.
Quality of Life
•
The metro New Orleans economy is taking first steps towards a new
trajectory—with sustained job growth, an increasingly diverse set of
industry clusters, and high rates of entrepreneurship.
•
In metro New Orleans, employment and income disparities between
African Americans and whites are starker than national disparities,
and poverty is increasing in surrounding parishes—undermining
social cohesion and resilience capacity across the region.
•
New Orleans has seen a surge in youth investments, increased
convictions of public corruption, and much needed reductions in
crime and improvements in schools—all of which may yield
increased community competence and problem-solving capacity in
the years ahead.
•
Expanding bike lanes point to greater appreciation for sustainability.
But disappearing wetlands and encroaching salinity put a spotlight
on the importance of coastal restoration and urban water
management.
Total revenues for arts and culture nonprofits have
Total revenues for arts and culture nonprofits have grown to $428 per capita
to $428
per capita
— roughly
timesnonprofits
— grown
roughly four
times greater
than revenues
for artsfour
and culture
nationally.
greater than revenues for arts and culture nonprofits
nationally.
43
Sources: The Data Center analysis of data from National Center for Charitable Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates Program.
The revenues to youth serving nonprofits in New
The revenues to youth serving nonprofits in New Orleans have doubled since
Orleans have doubled since 2004 to $85 per capita,
2004 to $85 per capita, much more than the $39 spent in Harris County
muchHouston).
more than the $39 spent in Harris County
(includes
(includes Houston).
47
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics and U.S. Census
Bureau, Population Estimates Program.
Increasing shares of public school students across the
Increasing shares of public school students across the metro attend schools
metro attend schools that pass state standards.
that pass state standards. Orleans Parish has seen the greatest gains.
Orleans Parish has seen the greatest gains.
45
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from Louisiana Department of Education.
45
But graduation rates indicate that a large share of
But graduation rates indicate that a large share of students are dropping out
students are dropping out before finishing high school
before finishing high school – with graduation rates below 80 percent in 6 of
– with graduation rates below 80 percent in 6 of 8
8 parishes.
parishes.
46
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from Louisiana Department of Education; National Center for
Education Statistics.
In 2004 violent crime rates in New Orleans were twice
In the
2004national
violent crime
rates in New
national average.
average.
By Orleans
2013, were
localtwice
andthenational
By 2013, local and national violent crime rates had fallen by 17 and 21
violent
crime rates had fallen by 17 and 21 percent
percent
respectively.
respectively.
49
Sources: The Data Center analysis of data from Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Crime in the United States
and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta analysis of data form FBI Criminal Justice Information System.
49
Pre-Katrina, federal corruption convictions picked up
Pre-Katrina,
federal
corruption
picked up pace.at
Per12.1
capita, New
pace. Per
capita,
New convictions
Orleans convictions
Orleans convictions at 12.1 exceeded comparison areas. The next closest
exceeded
comparison
areas. The next closest was
was
Houston with
9.1 convictions.
Houston with 9.1 convictions.
50
Sources: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Department of Justice, Public Integrity Section.
Fully 51 percent of renters in Orleans Parish pay
Fully 51 percent of renters in Orleans Parish pay unaffordable housing costs,
unaffordable housing costs, significantly higher than
significantly higher than 42 percent of renters nationally.
42 percent of renters nationally.
53
Sources: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American Community
Survey 2004 and 2013.
Sustainability
•
The metro New Orleans economy is taking first steps towards a new
trajectory—with sustained job growth, an increasingly diverse set of
industry clusters, and high rates of entrepreneurship.
•
In metro New Orleans, employment and income disparities between
African Americans and whites are starker than national disparities,
and poverty is increasing in surrounding parishes—undermining
social cohesion and resilience capacity across the region.
•
New Orleans has seen a surge in youth investments, increased
convictions of public corruption, and much needed reductions in
crime and improvements in schools—all of which may yield increased
community competence and problem-solving capacity in the years
ahead.
•
Expanding bike lanes point to greater appreciation for sustainability.
But disappearing wetlands and encroaching salinity put a spotlight
on the importance of coastal restoration and urban water
management.
Bicycle
and pathways
have increased
more
than in New
Bicycle
laneslanes
and pathways
have increased
more than
eightfold
eightfold
— now at
92.4
miles
compared
to in
Orleans
— nowinatNew
92.4Orleans
miles compared
to the
10.7
miles
that existed
2004.
the 10.7 miles that existed in 2004.
55
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the Regional Planning Commission for Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St.
Bernard, and St. Tammany Parishes.
The share of commuters using public transit in New Orleans is only 7
The
share of
using
public
transit in
Orleans is only 7 percent
percent
incommuters
2013, down
from
13 percent
in New
2000.
in 2013, down from 13 percent in 2000.
56
Sources: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census & American
Community Survey 2006, 2011 and 2013.
During the three-year period ending in 2013, metro
During the three-year period ending in 2013, metro New Orleans
New Orleans experienced twice as many “unhealthy”
experienced twice as many “unhealthy” air quality days as Houston.
air quality days as Houston.
Air Quality
57
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from U.S. EPA Air Quality System Air Quality Index Report.
Fully 29 percent of the coastal wetlands that
Fully 29 percent of the coastal wetlands that protect metro New Orleans
protect metro New Orleans have converted to open
have converted to open water since 1932.
water since 1932.
61
Sources: Brady
Couvillion, John
Barras, Gregory
Steyer, William
Sleavin, Michelle
Fischer, Holly Beck,
Nadine Trahan, Brad
Griffin, and David
Heckman, “Land area
change in coastal
Louisiana from 1932 to
2010,” U.S. Geological
Survey Scientific
Investigations Map
3164, (2011).
Note: 1932 and 1956
land area data are
derived from a
different source of
imagery than later
years. Thus, there are
issues of comparability
with these time
frames.
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with eight of nine
eight of nine groundwater sample sites registering
groundwater sample sites registering increasing salinity.
increasing salinity.
Water quality
SALINITY OF GROUNDWATER AT SELECT SAMPLING SITES
CHLORIDE, DISSOLVED, IN MILLIGRAMS PER LITER
59
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with eight of nine
eight of nine groundwater sample sites registering
groundwater sample sites registering increasing salinity.
increasing salinity.
Water quality
SALINITY OF GROUNDWATER AT SELECT SAMPLING SITES
CHLORIDE, DISSOLVED, IN MILLIGRAMS PER LITER
59
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with eight of nine
eight of nine groundwater sample sites registering
groundwater sample sites registering increasing salinity.
increasing salinity.
Water quality
SALINITY OF GROUNDWATER AT SELECT SAMPLING SITES
CHLORIDE, DISSOLVED, IN MILLIGRAMS PER LITER
59
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with eight of nine
eight of nine groundwater sample sites registering
groundwater sample sites registering increasing salinity.
increasing salinity.
Water quality
SALINITY OF GROUNDWATER AT SELECT SAMPLING SITES
CHLORIDE, DISSOLVED, IN MILLIGRAMS PER LITER
59
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with eight of nine
eight of nine groundwater sample sites registering
groundwater sample sites registering increasing salinity.
increasing salinity.
Water quality
SALINITY OF GROUNDWATER AT SELECT SAMPLING SITES
CHLORIDE, DISSOLVED, IN MILLIGRAMS PER LITER
59
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with eight of nine
eight of nine groundwater sample sites registering
groundwater sample sites registering increasing salinity.
increasing salinity.
Water quality
SALINITY OF GROUNDWATER AT SELECT SAMPLING SITES
CHLORIDE, DISSOLVED, IN MILLIGRAMS PER LITER
59
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with
Saltwater is encroaching within the levee walls, with eight of nine
eight of nine groundwater sample sites registering
groundwater sample sites registering increasing salinity.
increasing salinity.
Water quality
SALINITY OF GROUNDWATER AT SELECT SAMPLING SITES
CHLORIDE, DISSOLVED, IN MILLIGRAMS PER LITER
2014
59
Source: The Data Center analysis of data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Conclusion
• Ten years after Katrina, the regional economy is embarking on a new
path, benefitting from new infrastructure investments, a more diverse
set of clusters, and an entrepreneurship boom.
• New Orleanians’ love of their home, high levels of citizen engagement,
and dedication to improving their community have been key strengths
that have fueled the region’s resilience.
Source: http://myidiya.com/idiya-at-new-orleans-entrepreneur-week/
Conclusion
• Despite economic and reform-driven progress, metro New Orleans is
performing worse than the nation and other fast-growing southern
metros.
• Significant cultural shifts toward accountability and continued
investments in infrastructure will be required to truly set New Orleans
on an aspirational path.
Source: http://www.bestofneworleans.com/gambit/work-and-home/Content?oid=1256446
Conclusion
• To ensure resiliency, New Orleanians must simultaneously restore their
coast while growing prosperity that benefits broader segments of the
population.
• If successful, New Orleans’ efforts will serve as a global demonstration
of deliberate adaptation to the challenges that many cities will face in
the century ahead.
Source: http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/Missions/Environmental/LouisianaCoastalArea.aspx
Check out the full report online @
datacenterresearch.org