Business Analysis CSDA Leadership Institute – May 2012 1 David Kilgore, Deputy Director Los Angeles County David_Kilgore@cssd.lacounty.gov Sharon Wardale-Trejo, Manager III Stanislaus County Swardale-trejo@stancodcss.org 2 A leader is the person who directs a team to successfully complete a goal through a series of tasks. 3 Business Analysis Agenda Business Analysis Business analysis is a critical process that drives organizational structures and systems. Through effective business analysis, one can define and evaluate potential initiatives that best fit organizational goals. In this course, you gain the foundational knowledge needed to effectively perform key business analysis functions. You learn how to apply a core business analysis framework as well as participate in interactive sessions to improve analytical competencies. Specific competencies developed include: • • • • • • Analyzing and prioritizing business needs Creating dynamic business models using workflow diagrams Deploying evaluative techniques for project selection and outcomes Writing SMART business objectives Quantifying business case benefits and costs Communicating the requirements package to stakeholders 4 Why Are We Here? • Strategic Plan – Organizational View – Lays out the expected mission of the organization – Aligns vision with State and Federal Strategic Plans and County Business Plan • Business Analysis – Process View – Where the rubber meets the road – Is our effort efficient and in line with Strategic Plan? 5 How does this Affect Your Organization Improving FPMs Budget Staffing/Resources Customer Service Etc…. Analyzing Federal Performance Measures How they effect each other!! 7 Perfect Performance Support Orders Paternity 100% 100% 90% 0% Oct Mar Sept 0% Oct Current Support Oct Mar Mar Sept Arrears Sept Oct Mar Sept This Year Last Year 8 Perfect Performance Distributed Collections Oct Mar Sept This Year Last Year 9 World’s Not Perfect Increase Support Order FPM Support Orders Paternity Current Support Arrears Increase this measure by the 2 options to the right. 2 Ways to Increase 1. Ramp up Court Orders 2. Case Closure • Close Pre-Court Order Cases The cases you close cap out your ability to establish paternity on those cases Increasing the amount of cases with money orders means more money to collect. Initially set up cases often do not get the 1st or 2nd months current support in. Initially set up cases often do not get the 1st or 2nd months current support in also causes arrears balances to occur. Ramp Up Court Orders vs. Closing Cases 40,000 / 50,000 = 80% This is your base FPM % 42,000 / 50,000 = 84% Increase Orders by 2,000 40,000 / 48,000 = 83.3% Close additional 2,000 42,000 / 48,000 = 87.5% Do both Increasing the numerator gives you greater effect to the FPM, but closing cases is the easier course. Doing both obviously is the best, but when planning, you have to decide how much on each side you will be shooting for. 85% to 90% on this FPM should be a comfortable standard for all counties. 10 World’s Not Perfect Increase Paternity FPM Support Orders Increase Support Orders to increase Paternity 4 Ways to Increase 1. Push Support Orders 2. Push Outreach • Paternity Increase by 4 options to the right Get POP Declarations 3. Ensure it is Correct on the system 4. (Eventually) – Case Closure Current Support No effect other than what Increasing Support Orders would do = The closure you do in the current year potentially hurts the Paternity Percentage but has a positive effect for the following year. Getting Over 100% 1. The denominator is set at the beginning of the year, but new cases after that date can also have Paternity established. Since that new case is not in the denominator, but counted in the numerator you can go over 100% 2. Cases moved into your county that happened after the denominator will also count in the numerator. 11 Arrears No effect other than what Increasing Support Orders would do World’s Not Perfect Increase Current Support FPM Support Orders Closing Cases to improve Current Support Negatively effects the numerator of this FPM 4 Ways to Increase 1. Ramp up ONTWs 2. Case Closure • Paternity No Effect to Paternity Close Cases with current Support Obligation 3. Negotiate Collections 4. Modify for appropriate orders Current Support Increase this measure by the 4 options to the right. NTWs vs. Closure vs. Negotiation vs. Modification Numerator = Greater Effect Denominator = Easier Effect Arrears Positive-Increasing Current Support also brings in more money to arrears Negative-Closing cases with arrears balance can limit the number of potential cases to get arrears payments on. Negotiation = Minimal immediate effect, long term relationship effect Modification 1. Tries to get connection with Client for payment. 2. Fixes the difference between owed and collected. 12 World’s Not Perfect Increase Arrears FPM 4 Ways to Increase Support Orders No Effect 1. Ramp up ONTWs 2. Eventually - Case Closure • Paternity No Effect Close Cases with Arrears Obligation 3. Negotiate Collections – At least $1 negotiated fully satisfies this FPM 4. COAP Current Support Also increases if ONTWs are increased Negative Impacts often outweigh the Potential ways to increase the measure Case Closure – Limits the number of cases you can get a payment on. Arrears Increased in the 4 ways to the right Case Establishment – Cases can end up owing arrears before the 1st payment ever comes in Inappropriate court orders – Not only do they generate arrears balances, but the NCP cannot pay enough to satisfy current and then effect arrears. 13 Business Analysis Is the discipline of identifying business needs and determining solutions to business problems. Solutions often include: • Systems development • Process improvement • Organizational change • Strategic planning • Policy development. 14 Overview of the Process of Business Analysis • • • • • Select the Process Define the Process Map the Process Analyze the Process Identify Opportunities to Improve the Process 15 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs 16 How will we track Individual Projects? The PDSA Cycle 17 Planning Phase The PDSA Cycle 18 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs • Help an organization do a better job of what it exists to do • “Better” is defined in terms of increased effectiveness or efficiency • Effective improvement begins and ends with strategic alignment • Link specific projects, initiatives, training and job responsibilities to your most important organizational goals – Look to your Strategic Plan 19 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs SWOT This is used to help focus activities into areas of strength and where the greatest opportunities lie. This is used to identify the dangers that take the form of weaknesses and both internal and external threats. The four attributes of SWOT: Strengths - What are the advantages? What is currently done well? (Internal) Weaknesses - What could be improved? What is done badly? (Internal) Opportunities - What good opportunities face the organization? (External) Threats - What obstacles does the organization face? (External) 20 SWOT Analysis Worksheet Internal Strengths Weakness What advantages does your organization have? What could you improve? What do you do better than anyone else? What should you avoid? What unique or lowest-cost resources can you draw upon? What are other people likely to see as your weaknesses? What do other people see as your strengths? What factors cause you to miss the mark? Opportunity Threats What good opportunities can you spot? What obstacles do you face? What interesting trends are you aware of? What are others doing that will hurt your organization? Are there changes in Technology you can tap into? Is changing technology threatening your position? Are there changes in government coming? Could any of your weaknesses seriously threaten your business? Negative Positive What factors mean that you “get it right”? External 21 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs SWOT Analysis Exercise Key points to remember: • You need a Vision, Mission and Value Statements to guide this exercise • You must be realistic and forthright in preparing this document • Be specific, but keep it short and simple • Don’t over analyze • Prune down the list to the top 4 or 5 items Exercise: Identify Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats common to the group 22 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs Take it one step further… TOWS Analysis By analyzing the external environment (threats and opportunities), and your internal environment (weaknesses and strengths), you can use these techniques to think about the strategy of your whole organization, a department or a team. You can also use them to think about a process. It helps you ask, and answer, the following questions. How do you: • Make the most of your strengths? • Circumvent your weaknesses? • Capitalize on your opportunities? • Manage your threats? 23 TOWS Analysis Worksheet External Opportunities External Threats (O) (T) 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. Internal Strengths SO ST (S) “Maxi-Maxi” Strategy “Maxi-Mini” Strategy 1. Strategies that use strengths to maximize opportunities. 2. Strategies that use strengths to minimize threats. 3. 4. 1. 2. Internal Weakness WO WT (W) “Mini-Maxi” Strategy “Mini-Mini” Strategy Strategies that minimize weaknesses by taking advantage of opportunities. Strategies that minimize weaknesses and avoid threats. 3. 4. 24 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs TOWS Analysis Exercise Key points to remember: • Strengths and Opportunities (SO) – How can you use your strengths to take advantage of the opportunities? • Strengths and Threats (ST) – How can you take advantage of your strengths to avoid real and potential threats? • Weaknesses and Opportunities (WO) – How can you use your opportunities to overcome the weaknesses you are experiencing? • Weaknesses and Threats (WT) – How can you minimize your weaknesses and avoid threats? Exercise: Tackle this exercise as a group 25 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs Value Chain Analysis Value Chain Analysis is a useful tool for working out how you can create the greatest possible value for your customers. How do you use this tool: 1. Activity Analysis: First you identify the activities or services you deliver. At an organizational level, this will include the step-by-step business processes that you use to serve the customer. 2. Value Analysis: For each activity, think through what you would do to add the greatest value for your customer. List the things that your customers’ value in the way that each activity is conducted. 3. Evaluation and Planning: Evaluate whether it is worth making changes, and then plan for action. Pick off the easy, quick, or cheap wins first. Then, screen the more difficult changes for practicality. 26 Value Added Chain Primary Activities Inbound Logistics Outbound Logistics Operations Marketing and Sales Services The Value Chain Procurement Infrastructure Human Resources Management Technological Development Support Activities 27 Value Chain Analysis Value Chain Value Factors Changes Needed Where you identify the things that your customers value in the way you conduct each activity, and then work out the changes that are needed. Where you decide what changes to make and plan how you will make them Activity 1 Where you identify the activities that contribute to the delivery of your service Activity 2 Activity 3 28 Value Chain Analysis Value Chain Taking Order Specifications Scheduling Value Factors Changes Needed • Fast answer to phones • 3 ring rule, then all ring • Knowledge of customer’s situation and system • Team updates on clients • Understand needs accurately • Team training on system • Training on client industry • Manage Expectations • Client briefing at end of call • Accurate, comprehensive description of changes • Training in writing & proofing • Easily understandable • Internal review for clarity • Lists all activities • • Explains basis of price Use aide memoire to ensure all points are covered • Description of all activities • Set expectations clearly • Accurate time estimates • Clear statement • Scheduling system needed • Meet commitments • • Timely job start Contingency time in schedule • Need sufficient capacity 29 Creating Dynamic Business Models Using Workflow Diagrams 30 What is a Workflow Diagram? • A tool designed to identify the steps or actions in a process • An objective diagnostic tool in improving workflow • Shared understanding of current workflow • Identifies areas to investigate/change/improve • Identifies assumptions and misconceptions • Team-building process 31 Workflow Symbols Begin/End On-Page Connector Off-Page Connector Action Wait Flow Arrows Decision 32 Workflow Diagram • • • • • • Time flows from left to right Identify the players in the workflow Diagram the workflow Estimate Time Determine Quantity of Work Determine Staffing Needs 33 The Five Simple Rules • See through the Customer’s eyes • Find a better way of doing things • Look at the whole picture • Give line staff the time and the tools to tackle the problems • Take small steps as well as big leaps 34 Sample Workflow Diagram 35 Sample Workflow Diagram 36 Workflow Diagramming – Why? • 30-70% of work may involve unnecessary steps • Up to 50% of process steps involve a ‘handoff’ leading to potential error, duplication of effort or delay in process • No-one is solely accountable for the customer’s end-toend experience • Job roles tend to be narrow and fragmented – Look at the big picture • 40-60% of Managers and Employees time is spent dealing with glitches and problems caused by the process. 37 Analyzing a Workflow Diagram First – Review the Workflow Diagram: • Are we doing the right thing? (effectiveness) • Are we completing our processes in an efficient manner? • Is the most appropriate person/classification doing the job? • How coordinated is the document’s journey or the customer’s experience? • What information do we give the customers at which state? Is that information useful? 38 Eight Column Format Look for the Interdependencies INPUT SUPPLIER REQUIREMENTS OUTPUT RECIPIENT REQUIREMENTS MACROS 39 Writing SMART Business Objectives 40 SMART Business Objectives Specific – Objective is clear, concise and unambiguous Measureable – Qualifiable & quantifiable Achievable – Can be successfully attained Realistic – Appropriate to scope and resources Timely – Connected to business needs or associated with a stakeholder, process or system function 41 What is SMART Specific Is the objective precise and well-defined? Is it clear? Can everyone understand it? Measurable How will the individual/team know when the task has been completed? What evidence is needed to confirm it? Have you stated how you will judge whether it has been completed or not? Achievable Is it within their capabilities? Are there sufficient resources available to enable this to happen? Can it be done at all? Realistic Is it possible for the individual to perform the objective? How sensible is the objective in the current business context? Does it fit into the overall pattern of this individual’s work? Timely Is there a deadline? Is it feasible to meet this deadline? Is it appropriate to do this work now? Are there review dates? 42 Brainstorming Solutions PEOPLE MATERIALS Problem to be Solved RULES & REGULATIONS SYSTEMS 43 Brainstorming Solution Objectives • • • • • Eliminate Root Causes Process Simplification Dollar Cost Control – Who has authority/control? Speed of Implementation 44 What is Your Role? Executive Management *Strategic Vision *Strategic Objectives *Change Leadership Middle Management *Contradictions *Interpretations *Communication *Management First-Line Supervisors and Employees *Day-to-day Work *Implementation 45 Who is responsible for the Results? Executive Management to prioritize the work Managers to manage the process and create results Program Specialists to analyze and recommend Supervisors to supervise team and deliver results 46 Data Analysis Ask Questions… …Find Answers 47 Example – Improve Arrears FPM What is the current trend on Arrears? What is the total number of cases with an arrears balance? How many cases have only an arrears balance? Of the cases with Arrears how many had at least one payment last year? How many cases have less than $500 owing on arrears and no current support? How many cases have never had a payment on the case? How many cases have had no payment in the last 18 months? How many cases have no active address? How many cases have active phone numbers? 48 Arrears Trend Arrears FPM 60.00% 55.00% 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb "FFY 07 Mar Apr "FFY 08 May Jun Jul Aug Sep "FFY 09" 49 Example – Improve Arrears FPM • What is the total number of cases with an arrears balance? Query: 218,971 at September 2009 Follow-up Questions • Of the cases in the denominator, how many were closed throughout FFY 2009 Query: Identify all cases on the Sept 1257 that are now closed •39,037 Cases with arrears closed through FFY 09 •New starting denominator would be ~178,000 Of the cases rolling into FFY 2010, how many are expected to get a payment at some point during the year? Query: Use the remaining balance of cases and identify which of the cases had at least one payment in FFY 09 to estimate this year’s potential performance result. •97,239 of the cases that are remaining open had a payment the previous year. •97,239/178,000 = 54.6% (This is the estimated year end performance) 50 Example – Improve Arrears FPM How many cases have only an arrears balance? Query: Identify cases with an arrears balance, but no current support amount •48,254 are arrears only (Some cases CSE classifies as Long term delinquent or in locate are arrears only cases How many cases have less than $500 owing on arrears and no current support? Query: Identify cases with an arrears balance less than $500 and that have no ongoing current support amount. •1876 Cases meet this criteria •Accounts for 1.04% points of FPM 4 51 Example – Improve Arrears FPM What is the typical amount owed in arrears? Query: Identify all cases with an arrears balance. Calculate the Average, high, low and group cases by balance amounts •Average Arrears balance = $14,911 •Highest Arrears balance = $1,786,080 •Lowest Arrears balance = $.01 • 500k+ = 43 Cases • 250k – 500k = 579 Cases • 100k – 250k = 8,406 Cases • 50k – 100k = 24,550 Cases • 25k – 50k = 36,596 Cases • 10k – 25k = 43,850 Cases • 5k – 10k = 25,139 Cases • 500 – 5k = 32,400 Cases • >0 – 500 = 9,108 Cases 52 Example – Improve Arrears FPM How many cases have never had a payment on the case? Query: Identify cases with an arrears balance but no last payment date •Unable to determine…Last Payment Date data begins with conversion to CSE. Data starts November 2008 How many cases have had no payment in the last 18 months? Query: Identify all cases owing arrears which have not had a payment since Conversion to CSE •98,539 Cases which is 54.76% of the cases owning Arrears •This would lead one to believe that 45.24% is around what LA could expect to do this FFY without intervention •These case counts can be broken down by an amount breakdown as seen before 53 Example – Improve Arrears FPM Of the cases not expected to pay on arrears, how many cases have no active address? Query: Identify all cases with an arrears balance, have not paid in since conversion, which have addresses vs those that do not •76,495 have addresses •48,346 are arrears only cases •22,044 have no addresses •12,875 are arrears only cases Of the cases not expected to pay on arrears, how many cases have no active address? Query: Identify all cases with an arrears balance, have not paid in since conversion, which have phone numbers vs those that do not •19,066 have phone numbers •11,785 are arrears only cases •79,473 have no phone numbers •49,436 are arrears only cases 54 Example – Improve Arrears FPM What do we now know? 178,000 Cases have an arrears balance starting the year • 97,239 of these cases paid something towards arrears last year and will probably perform similarly this year (=54.60%) • Remaining 80,761 need intervention (98,539 had no payment since conversion, but only 80,761 remained open as the new FFY starts) • 37,624 are arrears only • We know which of these have addresses and phone numbers • 1,876 of these cases have an arrears balance less than $500 (=1.04% of FPM) • 43,047 have current support and arrears • We know which of these have addresses and phone numbers • 43 Cases have an Arrears balance over $500k • 8,985 Cases have an Arrears balance between $100k and $500k 55 The Doing Phase The PDSA Cycle 56 Example – Improve Arrears FPM Identify Strategies to Improve FPM • • • • • • • Stern Letter Invitations - Targets cases with current support and arrears to pay on their case, review for modification, or prepare for criminal referral Auto-Dialer Campaign - Target cases where no payment has happened since conversion as worker intervention on these cases will yield low results Arrears Days - Target NCPs in the LA area with arrears only balances or low overall arrears balances to meet with an attorney to discuss their case Negotiations Campaigns - Structure Operations Divisions to enhance child support officer interaction with NCPs for the purpose of improving negotiated collections Case Closure - Target cases that meet the case closure criteria to ensure cases are closed before the end of the FFY Task Cleanup - Target tasks in CSE that affect the Arrears FPM and bring current Employment Record Cleanup - Enhance the accuracy of the data in CSE for more efficient electronic assistance 57 The Game Plan • Focus our energy on the right things at the right time of the year • Maximize automation before utilizing manpower • Push the data down into the hands of the end user • Track the progress to ensure we are on track Developing Evaluative Techniques for Project Selection and Outcomes 59 Data Analysis Phase • Does a quantifiable/qualitative measure exist? – How will you measure on an ongoing basis? – Who maintains these stats now? – How can they be gotten on an on-going basis? Manually or Extracted from the System? – How is the data being use now? How is it being interpreted? – What problems might come up with tracking this data? 60 How will we evaluate as an organization? • • • • • • Standardized Reporting Report over Time Visually Direct Analysis of Past Plans Analysis of Current Processes Plan for the Future 61 The Study Phase The PDSA Cycle 62 Stern Invitation Project Month Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Total # % # Scheduled Appeared Appeared # Paid 622 181 29% 55 2,165 599 28% 265 2,590 574 22.16% 313 2,461 537 21.82% 253 2,757 626 22.71% 280 2,084 484 23.22% 177 1,592 311 19.54% 107 2,126 477 22.44% 205 2,612 565 21.63% 225 1,818 343 18.87% 126 725 125 17.24% 56 768 77 10.03% 24 621 181 29.15% 55 1,313 169 12.87% 78 1,528 222 14.53% 73 25,782 5,471 21.22% 2,292 % of Appeared Total $$ Paid 30% $12,198.00 44% $52,531.49 54.53% $53,747.47 47.11% $44,418.93 44.73% $78,638.78 36.57% $57,541.55 34.41% $21,709.17 42.98% $45,970.26 39.82% $40,202.48 36.73% $21,798.00 44.80% $10,867.07 31.17% $7,774.10 30.39% $12,198.00 46.15% $16,300.00 32.88% $15,773.95 41.89% $491,669.25 # Referals for Mod % of Appeared 85 285 219 167 149 108 122 103 145 90 32 23 85 49 68 47% 48% 38.15% 31.10% 23.80% 22.31% 39.23% 21.59% 25.66% 26.24% 25.60% 29.87% 46.96% 28.99% 30.63% 1,730 31.62% 2,292 Cases Effected the by FPM = 1.12% Arrears Days May 26th Court Furlough Day 500 Showed up 300 made payments Effect to the FPM = ~.15% in one day April 19th Court Furlough Day 531 Showed up 430 made payments Effect to the FPM = ~.22% in one day Open EN003 Tasks Open EN003 Tasks on CSE Division I Division II Division III Division IV Division V Division VI Interstate Executive Criminal Jan 310 307 508 390 521 153 177 6 37 Feb 150 115 151 125 152 38 102 1 18 Mar 687 743 1173 800 1089 287 477 16 86 Apr 745 755 1249 841 1153 304 22 8 91 May Abandoned Jun Jul Aug Sep Arrears FPM End Result Arrears FPM by FFY 60.00% 55.00% 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% Oct Nov FFY 05 Dec Jan FFY 06 Feb Mar FFY 07 Apr FFY 08 May Jun FFY 09 Jul FFY 10 Aug Sep FFY 11 2.93% point increase in 2010 – 2.17% point increase in 2011 Does the Data Exist? Data you Date Data you marry 67 Preparing for the Next Cycle Phase The PDSA Cycle 68 END OF DAY 1 69 Quantifying Business Case Benefits and Costs 70 Quantifying Business Case Benefits and Costs • Costs and benefits of a decision – Costs are either one-time costs or on-going, financial or nonfinancial • Equipment • Training • Recurring contract costs • Lost time – Benefits usually received over time. • Efficiency in workflow and staff time or other resources • Greater customer satisfaction 71 Cost Benefit Decision Matrix BENEFIT HIGH LOW LOW #1 BEST OKAY HIGH OKAY #4 WORST COST 72 Communicating the Requirements Package to Stakeholders 73 Do You Know Who Your Customers Are? • To judge the value of what we deliver we need to know • Who our customers are • What they want and need • What they expect of us 74 Customers or Stakeholders? • Customers – The direct users of your services or products. They are the reason your organization exists. – Determine quality – External and Internal Customers – External being users of services; Internal being employees within agency. • Stakeholders – People who are not users but can influence or have a stake in your services – Influence the work 75 Differentiating Customers from Stakeholders LCSA CA DCSS Customers NP, CP, Children, Other Parents, Employer LCSAs, NP, CP, Children Stakeholders • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • CA DCSS, Board of Supervisors, CEO’s Office, Legislature, Public/Constituents, Other County Agencies (Welfare, Workforce Investment), Other LCSAs, Other State Jurisdictions, Other State agencies (Courts, DMV, DOJ, OTECH) Governor, County Board of Supervisors, Health and Human Services, State and Federal legislature, AOC, OCSE, Other State Agencies, CSDA, County Auditor, Vendors 76 Refresh of Day 1 • What is Business Analysis • Analyzing and prioritizing business needs • Creating Dynamic business models using workflow diagrams • Deploying evaluative techniques for project selection and outcomes • Writing SMART business objectives • Develop evaluative techniques 77 78 Workgroup Breakout Activity 1 Analyzing and Prioritizing Business Needs 1. 2. 3. SWOT TOWS Value Chain Analysis Activity 2 Workflow Diagrams 1. 2. Perform a Workflow Analysis Locate High Impact Change Areas Result: Develop the County Priorities and the results needed in each Priority Result: Redesign the process for efficiency and identify target key areas to improve Activity 3 Brainstorm Solutions Activity 4 Evaluative Techniques/Cost Benefit Analysis 1. Utilize Solution Criteria to identify the best solutions to address the problem 2. Prioritize and organize your solutions into a timeline covering the FFY Result: Create a project plan to implement over the course of a FFY 1. Identify the milestones to measure and where to gather the information 2. Create mock-ups of the charts 3. Determine Cost Benefit Analysis Result: Develop an evaluation and analysis plan assessing the its effectiveness 79 Communicating Results to Stakeholders 80 81