Scenario-Based Planning for the
Impacts of
Multimodal Transportation Policies
James H. Lambert
Matthew J. Schroeder
October 14, 2008
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Project Steering Committee
 Mary Lynn Tischer, Director, Commonwealth of Virginia
Multimodal Office
 Wayne Ferguson, Virginia Transportation Research
Council
 Katherine Graham, Commonwealth of Virginia
Multimodal Office
 Mark McCaskill, Roanoke Valley Area Metropolitan
Planning Organization
 John Miller, Virginia Transportation Research Council
 Kimberly Pryor Spence, Virginia Department of
Transportation
Acknowledgments
 Ralph Davis, Virginia Deputy Secretary of Transportation
 Michael Garrett, Virginia Department of Transportation
 Matthew Grimes, Virginia Transportation Research
Council
 Roger Howe, Virginia Transportation Research Council
 Ben Mannell, Virginia Department of Transportation
 Joost Santos, University of Virginia
 Chad Tucker, Virginia Department of Transportation
 Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office
 VTrans2035
 Virginia Department of Transportation
 Virginia Transportation Research Council
Project Team
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James Lambert, Principal Investigator
Matthew Schroeder, Graduate Research Assistant
Megan Kersh, Undergraduate Student
Asad Saqib, Undergraduate Student
Ward Williams, Undergraduate Student
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Prologue
My administration will begin immediately and work urgently
to address the transportation dilemma that complicates
our lives and threatens our prosperity. Together, let us
find answers through a dialogue that is shaped not
simply in terms of dollars and cents, but also by new
solutions and common sense. A lack of coordination and
planning has us stuck where we are today.
-Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Inaugural Address, 2006
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Summary of Accomplishments
 Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning
 Assessed the needs of regional transportation
agencies in long-range planning
 Developed a scenario-based analysis of the
regional impacts of transportation policies
 Designed an Excel workbook
 Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke
region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of
VTrans2025
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Presentation Outline
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Introduction and motivation
Overview of approach
Background
Methodology
Demonstration of the workbook
Results and recommendations
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Motivation
 Scenario-based analysis is essential for
the VTrans 2035 planning horizon
 Virginia’s transportation system in 2008
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More than 60,000 miles of roadway
67 public-use airports
4 state-operated port terminals
Over 40 fixed route transit systems
Extensive freight and passenger rail
Bicycle and pedestrian amenities
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VTrans 2035
Pierce R. Homer
Secretary of Transportation
Modal Agencies
VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
Analysis for scenario-based
transportation planning
 “…policy framework for an
integrated multimodal
transportation system that
improves mobility and adds to
the prosperity and the quality of
life for Virginia”
 Modal agencies
• DOAV
• VDRPT
• VDOT
• DMV
• VPA
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Overview of Approach
 Study the impacts of multimodal
transportation policies by region across
Virginia
 Understand how future scenarios and
related assumptions matter to Virginia’s
transportation system
 Support coordination among regional and
statewide transportation planners
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Regional Planning Organizations
Source: 2035 Virginia State Highway Plan 2008
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Milestones
 September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office
 November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke,
Virginia
 December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper
competition
 February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary
Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine
Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis
 February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO
 March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO
 May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham
 May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
 June-September 2008: Survey of MPOs/PDCs
 August 2008: Draft of final report submitted to the VTRC
 September 2008: Second draft final report, 80% executive review
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Project Website
www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2
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Scenario-Based Planning
 Use of scenarios to guide forecasts,
projects, and policies
 Advocated by the Federal Highway
Administration
 Several existing different approaches for
methodology
Source: FHWA, MWCOG, various sources
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Sample of Literature
 Cervero, R., & Aschauer, D. (1998). Economic impact analysis of
transit investments:Guidebook for practitioners.
 Cole, Sam (2001). Dare to Dream: Bringing Futures into Planning.
Journal of the
 Flyvbjerg, B, Holm M. K., Buhl, S. (2005). How (In)accurate Are
Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?
 Jarke, M., Bui, X.T. and Carroll, J.M. (1998). Scenario
management: an interdisciplinary approach.
 Wachs, M. (2001). Forecasting versus Envisioning: A New Window
on the Future.
 Bartholomew, K. (2005). Integrating Land Use Issues Into
Transportation Planning: Scenario Planning.
 Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. (2005). Regional
Analysis of What-If Transportation Scenarios.
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Sample of Literature (cont.)
 Federal Highway Administration. (2007). FHWA Scenario Planning
Initiatives.
 Federal Highway Administration. (n.d.). Scenario planning.
 National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board and the
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. (2004). What If
The Washington Region Grew Differently: The TPB Regional
Mobility and Accessibility Scenario study.
 Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission. (n.d.). Jefferson
Area Eastern Planning Initiative.
 Watts, R. A., Poitras, C., Chamberlin, R. (2008). Citizen
Participation and Frame Analysis in the Development of Scenarios
for the VTrans Long Range Transportation Business Plan.
 Virginia Department of Transportation. (2004). Virginia’s Statewide
Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan: Phase 3 and Final
Report to the General Assembly.
 Zergas, C., Sussman, J., Conklin, C. (2004). Scenario Planning for
Strategic Regional Transportation Planning.
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Types of Scenarios
 Spatial
 Economic
 Demographic
• Number of households, in/out-migration
 Other
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Environmental
Availability of energy resources
National emergencies
Natural disasters
Workforce
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Spatial Scenarios
 Urban core repopulates
• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged
• Public transportation increases, clean transportation
 Sprawl accelerates
• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases
• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion
 Information technology amenities grow
• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues
• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas
 Region undivided
• Shift job and household growth from west to east
 Transit oriented development
• More people live and work closer to transit
Sources:
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committeedocuments/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Economic Scenarios
 Regional economy strengthens
• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues
 Global trade intensifies
• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles
 Energy cost rises
• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations
• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases
 Infrastructure investment expands
• May draw people to area in the long run
Sources:
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committeedocuments/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Demographic Scenarios
 In-migration increases
• Total population increases, decreased use of
auto
 Out-migration increases
• Population decreases, increased use of auto
 More households
• Increased household growth to balance
forecast job growth Sources:
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committeedocuments/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Other Scenarios
 “Green” region emphasized
• Use of public transit, bike, etc.
 Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland
security tightened
• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation
• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized
 Carbon constrained future
 Energy constrained future
• Global price shocks and shortages
Sources:
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committeedocuments/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Methodology Components
Performance
Goals
Transportation
Policies
Future
Scenarios
VTrans Statewide Policies
 Twenty-one policies of VTrans and Office of
Multimodal Transportation Planning
 Sample of policies
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P.4 – Fund rail
P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling
P.24 – Going green (specific to region)
P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific
to region)
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MPO Interest in VTrans Policies
Source: VTrans survey 2008
Future Scenarios
 Used nineteen scenarios based on studies
throughout the U.S.
 Focused on five scenarios for the region in our
case study
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S.2 – Sprawl accelerates
S.17 – Retirement
S.18 – Natural disaster
S.3 – IT amenities grow
S.19 – Decrease in air quality
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MPO Interest in Future Scenarios
Source: VTrans survey 2008
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Transportation Goals
 Six high level goals with 34 performance criteria
 High level criteria:
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C.1 – Safety and Security
C.2 – Preservation and Management
C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People
C.4 – Economic Vitality
C.5 – Quality of Life
C.6 – Program Delivery
Source: VTrans 2025
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Excel Workbook - Introduction
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Workbook – Policy Definitions
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Workbook – Policy Ratings
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Workbook – Scenario Definitions
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Workbook – Goals Re-Weighting
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Goals Re-Weighting Example
Workbook – Policy Comparison
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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
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Interpretation of Results
 Results are useful to group policies by
performance
 Results are useful to group policies by
upside or downside sensitivity to scenarios
 Decision making by VTrans and MPOs is
informed by choices of scenarios, policies,
and performance criteria
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Summary of Accomplishments
 Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning
 Assessed the needs of regional transportation
agencies in long-range planning
 Developed a scenario-based analysis of the
regional impacts of transportation policies
 Designed an Excel workbook
 Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke
region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of
VTrans2025
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Recommendations
 Deploy Excel workbook for survey of
additional regional organizations
 Collate the results in support of
VTrans2035, comparing the regional
impacts of VTrans policies
 Provide key input to upcoming summit of
transportation thought and vision leaders
in Charlottesville, November 2008
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Recommendations (cont.)
 Costs/resources of deployment
• Time to interact by telephone, email, and
Excel workbook with regional planners
• Time to compile and present comparison
comparing regional results
• Maintenance of website with Excel workbook
 Benefits
• Improved coordination of VTrans2035 and the
regional planning organizations
• Policies that are robust to disruptive scenarios
and appropriate to Virginia regions
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Next Steps
 Study VTrans2035 multimodal corridors
 Find the sensitivity of the corridors to
VTrans “issues”
 Study the sensitivity of VTrans and other
statewide policies to future scenarios of
climate change
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Sea-level rise
Frequencies of storms, flood, drought
Intensities of storms, flood, drought
Demographic/socioeconomic climate impacts
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RVAMPO Student Paper Award
to UVa/VTRC Student Team
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