Economics 215 Intermediate Macroeconomics Introduction What is Macroeconomics Studies of economies at aggregate level: world, nation, region, etc. Economic decision makers are representatives of a broader class (consumers, banks, firms, etc.) Why study aggregate economy? Classes of agents similar in important ways. Their behavior generates aggregate movements. Aggregate markets important to explain, foreign exchange, credit, energy. Single national policy-makers: central bank, treasury. Feedback when large number of agents act together. How is Intermediate Different from Principles Main subjects Long-term Growth Productivity Capital Accumulation vs. Technology driven growth Exchange Rates Long-term exchange rate fundamentals Business cycles in small open economy Macroeconomic Dynamics Savings and Investment Trade and Budget Deficits Concepts you should know GDP, Nominal and Real Price level and Inflation Interest Rates, Nominal and Real Variables are often studied in the form of time series: A set of observations indexed by time. GDP: Output Nominal GDP (PYt) – the total value of goods produced in a given period measured in current prices. Real GDP (Yt) – the total value of goods produced in a given period measured in the prices prevailing in some base year. Expenditure Categories in Hong Kong: 2001 160.00% 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% % of GDP 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Household Government Consumption Consumption Investment Exports Imports Income Distribution Household Income 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 China Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. Sweden Ratio of 10% Highest to 10% Lowest United States GDP Expenditure Shares Consumption Investment Government Net Exports Production Sectors of Hong Kong Production Account 0.25 0.2 0.15 % of GDP 0.1 1980 0.05 2001 1980 Landlord Services FIRE Transport Trade Construction Utilities Manufacturing Mining AFF 0 P: Price level Deflator (Pt) ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP (weighted average of the prices of goods produced using current expenditures as weights). CPI (CPIt) cost of a fixed market basket of consumer goods relative to the cost in a base year (weighted average of the prices of goods consumed using fixed expenditures as weights). Inflation: Growth rate of price level Pt Pt 1 t Pt 1 Inflation: HK GDP Deflator Inflation 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 19 61 19 64 19 67 19 70 19 73 19 76 19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97 20 00 20 03 # 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 Interest Rates Nominal Interest Rate (1+it): Number of $ a borrower will pay you in one year if they borrow $1 today. Real Interest Rate (1+rt): Number of goods a borrower will pay you in one year if they borrow 1 good today. Gross Nominal interest at the time of a loan divided by gross inflation over course of a loan. Net real interest rate approximated by net nominal rate minus net inflation rate. HK Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 -5 Time Series GDP 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 20 0 03 # 20 97 94 19 91 19 19 88 19 85 82 19 19 79 19 76 19 73 70 19 67 19 19 64 19 61 0 19 Million HK $ Growth Real GDP tends to grow over time. Yt Yt 1 Y Growth Rate gt Yt 1 gtY Yt 1 Yt 1 Growth compounds across time Yt 1 1 g Yt , Yt 2 1 g Yt 1 , Yt 2 1 g 1 g Yt 1 g Yt 2 Yt 3 1 g Yt 2 1 g Yt j Yt j 1 g Yt 3 Series with Exponential Growth 140 120 100 80 time GDP 60 40 20 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 Natural Log Empirical economists often study (natural) logarithms of series Study yt = ln Yt Natural log is a logarithm with Euler’s constant, e as base. Natural logarithm is a mathematical function that takes a straight line and turns it into a concave Most importantly, natural logarithm takes an exponential growth function and turns it into a straight line. -2 7.75 7.25 6.75 6.25 5.75 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25 2.75 2.25 1.75 1.25 0.75 0.25 Natural Log of a Straight Line 10 8 6 4 X ln X 2 0 Exponential to straight line 8 7 6 5 Y 4 lnY 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Properties of Natural Logarithm 1. If X t Yt Zt ln X t ln Yt ln Zt Yt 2. 3. If If Xt Zt ln Yt ln X t ln Zt Yt X t a ln Yt a ln X t Log of exponential growth function is linear function of time Yt j (1 g ) j Yt ln Yt j ln (1 g ) j Yt ln Yt ln (1 g ) j ln Yt ln(1 g ) j GDP vs. Log GDP ln(GDP) GDP 1,600,000 16 1,400,000 14 1,200,000 12 1,000,000 10 800,000 8 600,000 6 400,000 4 200,000 2 0 0 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 3# 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 200 19 61 964 967 970 973 976 979 982 985 988 991 994 997 000 03# 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 20 Small changes in X imply % changes in ln(X) If x = ln(X) and X changes by a small amount dX, then x changes by dX X Growth Rates: Between two periods of time Y changes by an amount ΔY = Yt – Yt-1. Then Y Yt Yt 1 Y t ln Yt ln Yt 1 gt Y Yt 1 -0.05 -0.1 2002# 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 Continuous vs. Discrete Growth 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 g μ 0 GDP Growth GDP displays exponential, but uneven, growth. Macroeconomists split GDP into two parts: 1) trend; and 2) cycle Trend – smooth, expositional growth 2. Cycle – Deviations of Actual GDP from Trend 1. Calculating Trend Developed Economies: Ln(GDP) is a linear function of time. Estimate linear regression of ln(GDP) on constant and time. Emerging Markets: Tend to experience slowing growth. Estimate linear regression of ln(GDP) on constant, trend, trend2. Log Trend & Log Cycle 16 14 12 10 ln(GDP) 8 TREND 6 4 2 2001 1997 1993 1989 1985 1981 1977 1973 1969 1965 1961 0 HK GDP – Trend and Cycle 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 19 61 19 66 19 71 19 76 19 81 19 86 19 91 19 96 20 01 0 trend GDP Calculating Cycles Gap (output gap) between actual ln(GDP) and trend ln(GDP). Small difference between two natural logs can be interpreted as a % difference. Output gap is the % deviation of GDP from trend. Output gap is variable and persistent but does not permanently grow or shrink over time. Output Gap Output Gap 0.15 0.1 0 19 61 19 65 19 69 19 73 19 77 19 81 19 85 19 89 19 93 19 97 20 01 % 0.05 -0.05 -0.1 -0.15 -0.2 Output Gap & Unemployment 10 8 6 4 2 Unemployment Output Gap -4 -6 -8 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 -2 19 82 19 80 0 Statistics Standard deviation of the output gap to measure the volatility of the output gap. Correlation to measure the movement of one stationary time series with one another. Auto-correlation measures the persistence of stationary time series. Point Elasticities Elasticity: The % change in one variable caused by % change in another variable. Given x = ln(X), y = ln(Y) and y = δ x =δ dy = (dY/Y), dx = (dX/X) So δ can be interpreted as the elasticity of X with respect to Y (dy/dx) Main Sources of Hong Kong Statistics 1. There are two main sources of macroeconomic statistics. Census and Statistics Department: National Income Accounts, CPI, Interest Rates, Employment, etc. See Frequently Requested Statistics http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/eng/hkstat/index1.html 2. Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Money and Banking Statistics See Monthly Statistical Bulletin http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/statistics/msb/index.htm