Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions

Financial Accounting Theory

Craig Deegan

Chapter 10

Reactions of capital markets to financial reporting

Slides written by Michaela Rankin

Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust

. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan 10.1

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions

Learning Objectives

• In this chapter you will be introduced to

– the role of capital market research in assessing the information content of accounting disclosures

– the assumptions of market efficiency adopted in capital market research




Learning Objectives

– the difference between capital market research that looks at the information content of accounting disclosures, and capital market research that uses share price data as a benchmark for evaluating accounting disclosures

– why unexpected accounting earnings and abnormal share price returns are expected to be related

– the major results of capital market research into financial accounting and disclosure




Capital market research— introduction

• Explores the role of accounting and other financial information in equity markets

• involves examining statistical relations between financial information and share prices

• reactions of investors evident from capital market transactions

• no share price change implies no reaction




Capital market versus behavioural research

• capital market research:

– assesses the aggregate effect of financial reporting on investors

– considers only investors

• Behavioural research:

– analyses individual responses to financial reporting

– examines decision-making by many groups

• eg. bank managers, loan officers, auditors




Reasons for capital market research

• Information about earnings and its components is the primary purpose of financial reporting

• earnings are oriented towards the interests of shareholders

• earnings is the number most analysed and forecast by security analysts

• reliable data on earnings is readily available




Underlying assumption of

CMR—EMH

• CMR relies on the assumption that equity markets are efficient

– in accordance with Efficient Market Hypothesis

• efficient market defined as a market that adjusts rapidly to fully impound information into share prices when the information is released




Three forms of Market

Efficiency

•

Weak form : prices reflect information about past prices and trading volumes

•

Semi-strong form: all publicly available information is rapidly and fully impounded into share prices in an unbiased manner when released

– most relevant for accounting-based capital market research

• strong form : security prices reflect all information (public and private)




Market efficiency

—implications for accounting

• If markets are efficient they will use information from various sources when predicting future earnings

• if accounting information does not impact on share prices then it is deemed not to have any information value above that currently available




Earnings/return relation

• Share prices are the sum of expected future cash flows from dividends, discounted to their present value using a rate of return commensurate with the company’s risk

• dividends are a function of accounting earnings

• unexpected earnings rather than total earnings expected to be associated with a change in share price




Earnings/return relation— market model

• Used to separate out firm-specific share price movements from market-wide movements

– derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model

• assumes investors are risk averse and have homogeneous expectations

• its use allows the researcher to focus on share price movements due to firm-specific news




Earnings/return relation— continued

• Total or actual returns can be divided into:

– normal (expected) returns given market-wide movements

– abnormal (unexpected) returns due to firmspecific share price movements

• abnormal returns used as an indicator of information content of announcements




Results of CMR—Ball and

Brown (1968) study

• examined data from 261 US firms

• tested whether firms with unexpected increases in accounting earnings had positive abnormal returns, and firms with unexpected decreases had negative abnormal returns




Results of CMR—Ball and

Brown (1968) study—continued

• Found:

– information contained in the annual report, prepared using historical cost was useful to investors

– 85-90% of earnings announcement is anticipated by investors

– much of information is obtained from other sources




Results of CMR—extent of alternative information sources

• Information content varies between countries and companies

• compared to US markets, Australian market had slower adjustments during the year with larger adjustments at earnings announcement

– less alternative sources of information for

Australian market

• less alternative sources of information for smaller firms than larger firms




Results of CMR—permanent and temporary changes

• Research examined relation between the magnitude of unexpected changes in earnings (EPS) and magnitude of abnormal returns

– known as the earnings response coefficient

– a 1% unexpected change in earnings associated with 0.1 to 0.15% abnormal return

– depends on whether earnings increases expected to be permanent or temporary




Results of CMR—relative magnitudes of cash and accruals

• Earnings persistence depends on proportion of accruals relative to cash flows

– firms with large accruals relative to actual cash flows unlikely to have persistently high earnings

• share prices found to act as if investors

‘fixate’ on reported earnings without considering relative magnitudes of cash and accrual components




Results of CMR—information announcements of other firms

• Earnings announcements by one firm also results in abnormal returns to other firms in the same industry

• related to whether the news reflects a change in conditions for the entire industry, or changes in relative market share within the industry




Results of CMR—information content of earnings forecasts

• Announcements of expected earnings rather than actual earnings are associated with share returns

• management and security analysts both make forecasts




Results of CMR—benefits of voluntary disclosure

• Voluntary disclosures include those in annual reports as well as media releases etc.

• firms with more disclosure policies have:

– larger analyst following and more accurate analyst earnings forecasts

– increased investor following

– reduced information asymmetry

– reduced costs of equity capital




Results of CMR—recognition versus footnote disclosure

• Recognising an item in the financial statements is perceived differently to disclosure in footnotes

• investors place greater reliance on recognised amounts than on disclosed amounts




Results of CMR—size

• Relationship between earnings announcements and share price movements is inversely related to the size of the entity

• earnings announcements found to have a greater impact on share prices of smaller firms than larger firms

• more information generally available for larger firms




Do current prices anticipate future announcements?

• As firm size increases, share prices incorporate information from wider number of sources

– relatively less unexpected information when earnings are announced

• may be able to argue that share prices anticipate future earnings announcements for larger firms with some accuracy




Accounting earnings reflecting information

• Rather than determining whether earnings announcements provide information, recent research examines whether earnings announcements reflect information that has been already used by investors

– ‘looking back the other way’

– market prices viewed as leading accounting earnings




Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued

• Share prices are considered as benchmark measures of firm value

• share returns are considered as benchmark measures of firm performance

• benchmarks are then used to compare usefulness of alternative accounting and disclosure methods

• based on premise that market values and book values are both measures of firm value




Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued

• If market value is related to book value, returns should be related to accounting earnings per share, divided by price at the beginning of the accounting period

– provides an underlying reason why we should expect returns to be related to earnings over time




Results of CMR—Accounting earnings reflecting information

• Beaver, Lambert and Morse (1980) found share prices and related returns were related to accounting earnings

• because of various information sources, price appeared to anticipate future accounting earnings

• supported by Beaver, Lambert and Ryan

(1987)




Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont.

• Collins, Kothari and Rayburn (1987) found evidence that share prices was a better indicator of future earnings in larger firms than smaller firms

• Dechow (1994) found over short intervals earnings are more strongly associated with returns than are realised cash flows

– the ability of cash flows to measure firm performance increases as the measurement interval increases




Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont.

• Studies examining which asset value approaches provide accounting figures that best reflect market valuation found:

– fair value estimates of bank’s financial instruments seem to provide a better explanation of bank share prices than historical cost (Barth, Beaver and Landsman 1996)

– revaluation of assets results in better alignment of market and book values (Easton, Eddy and

Harris 1993)



Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions

Financial Accounting Theory

Learning Objectives

Learning Objectives

Capital market research— introduction

Capital market versus behavioural research

Reasons for capital market research

Underlying assumption of

CMR—EMH

Three forms of Market

Efficiency

Market efficiency

—implications for accounting

Earnings/return relation— market model

Earnings/return relation— continued

Results of CMR—information content of earnings forecasts

Results of CMR—benefits of voluntary disclosure

Results of CMR—recognition versus footnote disclosure

Results of CMR—size

Do current prices anticipate future announcements?

Accounting earnings reflecting information

Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued

Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued

Results of CMR—Accounting earnings reflecting information

Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont.

Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont.

Related documents

Products

Support

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions

Financial Accounting Theory

Learning Objectives

Learning Objectives

Capital market research— introduction

Capital market versus behavioural research

Reasons for capital market research

Underlying assumption of

CMR—EMH

Three forms of Market

Efficiency

Market efficiency

—implications for accounting

Earnings/return relation— market model

Earnings/return relation— continued

Results of CMR—information content of earnings forecasts

Results of CMR—benefits of voluntary disclosure

Results of CMR—recognition versus footnote disclosure

Results of CMR—size

Do current prices anticipate future announcements?

Accounting earnings reflecting information

Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued

Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued

Results of CMR—Accounting earnings reflecting information

Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont.

Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont.

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