PUBLIC
OPINION
Based upon materials from
Roskin’s Text and Dr. Rosenberg Lectures
Public Opinion
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Is citizens’ reaction to current, specific issues
and events.
Plays a major role in modern democracy.
Is different from political culture.
Includes an array of diverse attitudes that can
change quickly.
Sometimes shows widespread ignorance.
Is often led or manipulated by interest groups.
Is a point of vulnerability for any government .
Scientific Method
Components of an Attitude
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Affective
Cognitive
Behaviorial
Types of Variables
Dimensions of and Attitude
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Direction
Location
Intensity
Centrality
Salence
Salience
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Literally, that which jumps out
The importance of given issues in public opinion
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The degree to which categories and issues
affect the public opinion of a country
Factors that Shape Public Opinion
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Social class
Education
Region
Religion
Age
Gender
Ethnic group
National Council on Public Polls
20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask
1.
Who did the poll?
2.
Who paid for the poll and why was it done?
3.
How many people were interviewed for the survey?
4.
How were those people chosen?
5.
What area (nation, state, or region) or what group(teachers,lawyers, Democratic
voters, etc.) were these people chosen from?
6.
Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed?
7.
Who should have been interviewed and was not? Or do response rates matter?
8.
When was the poll done?
9.
How were the interviews conducted?
10.
What about polls on the Internet or World Wide Web?
National Council on Public Polls
20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask (cont.)
11. What is the sampling error for the poll results?
12. Who’s on first?
13. What other kinds of factors can skew poll results?
14. What questions were asked?
15. In what order were the questions asked?
16. What about "push polls?"
17. What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say the same thing? If they are different,
why are they different?
18. What about exit polls?
19. What else needs to be included in the report of the poll?
20. So I've asked all the questions. The answers sound good. Should we report the results?
Classic Opinion Curves
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Skewed
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Unimodal or Bell-Shaped
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A matter on which there are few doubters shows
heavy opinion on one side, forming a “J-curve.”
On many issues, public opinion shows few people at
the extremes and most in the moderate center.
Bimodal
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Forming a “U-curve,” the extremes are bigger than
the center.
Common Methods of
Collecting Data
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Telephone
Mail
Web
In-Person
Additional Methods of
Collecting Data
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CATI, CAPI, CASI: What's the Difference? ACASI (Audio Computer-Aided Self-Administered
Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a computer-based
questionnaire, but the computer reads questions to the respondent over headphones.
Audio SAQ Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a paper questionnaire.
CAPI (Computer-Aided Personal Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a
computer-based questionnaire.
CASI (Computer-Aided Self-Administered Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying using a
computer based questionnaire.
CATI (Computer-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer-administered telephone surveying
using a computer-based questionnaire.
DBM (Disk-by-Mail) Self-administered surveying using a computer-based mail questionnaire.
PAPI (Paper-and-Pencil Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a traditional paper
questionnaire.
SAQ (Self-Administered Questionnaire) Self-Administered surveying using a traditional paper
questionnaire. TATI (Touch-Tone-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer- (or voice-response)
administered telephone surveying where respondents use touch-tone buttons to provide answers.
TDE (Touch-Tone Data Entry) Same as TATI.
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Source: Sawtooth News, Fall 1996.
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Polling Techniques
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Selecting a sample
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Choosing the method
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Reaching the sample
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Asking the questions
Sample
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Those persons to be interviewed in a
survey
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A small fraction of a population
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Should be as representative -- rather than
as large -- as possible
Types of Samples
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Random
RDD
Opportunity or Convenience
Purposive
Snow Ball
Presidential Ratings
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Honeymoon
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High support for presidents early in their terms
Rally events
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Occurrences that temporarily boost the president’s
support
The economy and foreign policies
may also affect a president’s support.
Weissberg’s Linkages Between Public
Opinion and Popular Sovereignty
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Direct
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Operate within Constraints of Public Opinion
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Consider the positions of the actors involved public and politicians and
use their positions as constraints.
After the Fact Approval
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The majority who don’t know or care about much beyond their
immediate concerns.
A minority who are among the better-educated and who follow more
abstract political concerns.
Public Approval of Leadership
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A few highly influential people who are involved in politics, often
professionally.
Edmund Burke’s
Topology of Representation
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Delegate
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Trustee
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Follow what the majority want.
Do what is best, even if there are political
consquences.
Politico
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Evaluate what is best for the politician and
what is best for the public, recognizing the
importance of re-election.
Public Opinion Polls
Are they fair?
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Help make public opinion
May distort an election
Are not neutral in their impact
Are not a substitute for careful analysis of issues
Should America be governed by polls?