Week 7: Impacts on Regional Politics
Lecture 18: The American War
Against (Terrorist) Taliban
17th March 2003 (Monday)
Mid-term Examination
(24th March, Monday)
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30% of the Total Grade
7:00-8:30pm, Room To Be Announced
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Covers Lectures 1-20
20 Multiple Choices
1 Short Questions with Choices
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Mainstream Questions. E.g. Why did 911 happen? Among the possible
reasons, which are valid and which are overstated? Please draw the
examples from the course, as well as from other sources that you
know, and please answer in your own opinion.
Question from Readings. E.g. Please discuss two of the assigned
articles with contradictory perspectives, and analyze the origins of their
respective perspective.
Review Session this Week
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Next Monday Class
Please Bring All the Notes
Take it Easy! ^o^
Logistics of
Guest Lectures
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Israel Consul General Eli Avidar
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The Israeli-Palestinian Issue
The Israeli Response to the Current World Order
The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan Announced by US
President George W Bush Last Saturday
Lecture 19: 19th March 2003 (Wednesday)
PLEASE ARRIVE ON TIME at 11am SHARP
Lunch (12:00-1:00): Chinese Restaurant (南北小
廚), G/F
Structure of Lecture 18:
War Against Taliban
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Introduction
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Relationship Between
Superpower Politics & Regional
Politics
Afghanistan: A Brief History
Why Afghanistan in the 1st
Wave of Anti-terrorism?
Impacts of the War
Conclusion:
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What is the Name of the War?
PART I: Introduction
The Warring Relationship
Between Superpower Politics &
Regional Politics
On Behalf of the Superpower:
Proxy War
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War in a Remote Country of the
Superpowers:
 The Warring Parties are All
“Proxies” of the Superpowers.
 Backstage Bosses =
Superpowers
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Advantages:
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No Direct Conflict Between the
Superpowers
No Civilian Losses
Diplomatic Flexibility
The Angolan
Civil War (1970s)
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FNLA: US+China-back Angolan
Guerilla
MPLA: Cuba-back Angolan
Guerilla
 Proxy’s Proxy (USSR—
Cuba—MPLA)
UNITA: South Africa-back
Angolan Guerilla
 Proxy’s Proxy (AngloAmerican Rightists—South
Africa—UNITA)
Proxy or Direct Involvement?
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Advantage of Direct Involvement
Over Proxy War:
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Towards the Iron Triangle (esp.
Military and Industrialists)
Targeting towards the Regional
Order Vs towards another
International Competitor
Internal Politics: Polling, Public
Opinion and the Responsibility of
Governments…
On Behalf of Host Countries:
“Using the Barbarians against Barbarians”
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Qing Dynasty’s Strategy to Invite Foreign
Powers to Have Fun in China
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The Danger of Being Overtaken
Singapore’s Lee Kuan-Yew
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yiyizhiyi (Using the Barbarians against
Barbarians)
Invite British Interests to Stay to Counterbalance the Malaysian Interests
Taiwan’s Chiang Kai-shek
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Invite USA to Station the
Seventh Fleet to Safeguard
against Communist
Aggression
PART II
Afghanistan: A Brief History
The Location of Afghanistan
An Ignored Empire
in the Past
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CNN’s The History of Afghanistan.
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trad
e.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html
Have you heard of Afghanistan before
911?
China’s Vessel-state in the Qing Dynasty
19th Century: Sphere of Interest between
Russia (North) and Britain (South)
Soviet Occupation
(1979-1989)
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1973: Deposition of Zahir Shah
Civil War between Various Parties
(Ethnic Minorities, Islamists &
Communists)
1978: USSR Sponsored a Coup
1979: Iranian Revolution
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Rise of Islamist Movement
1979: Counter-Coup in Afghanistan
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Fall of Communist Regime
Soviet Invasion under Brezhnev
Execution of the Counter-Coup Leader
Amin
Guerilla Resistance Never Stopped
The Afghan
Proxy War?
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Not a Proxy War at the Beginning:
 Afghan Guerillas backed by
Fellow Islamic Countries in the
Counter-coup
After the Soviet Invasion:
 Mujahideen (Afghan Soldiers of
the God, inc. Taliban and
Laden) became an AntiCommunist Slogan
 Backed by Anti-Soviet Powers
(USA, NATO, China)
 Backed by Islamic Powers
(Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan)
All the Laden Allies!
 Western Technologies
 Islamic Ideologies
The Soviet Failure
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International Backing of
Mujahideen
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Local Geography and Tactics
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Military Vs Economic Aggression
Imperial Overreach of USSR
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 Over-conscious in the American
Preparation
Tactical Failure
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International Embargo
The 1980 Moscow Olympic Games
End of Détente in the Cold War
Analogy of Computer War Games
1989: Soviet Withdrawal, as USSR
was Collapsing
PART III
First Wave of
Anti-Terrorism:
Why Afghanistan?
The Taliban Regime
(1996-2001)
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Warlord Era (1989-1996)
Taliban = “students” of Islamic
Fundamentalism
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Legitimate Regime in Afghanistan
(1996-2001)
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The True Taliban and the Opportunist
Taliban
Foreign Allies:
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Pushtun, the Largest Tribe in Afghanistan
Strict Disciplines, Committed Ideology
Conquered Kabul & 90% of Land at 1996
Taught and Trained by Pakistan
Economically Sponsored by KSA, UAE (the
only 3 Countries Recognized Taliban
Before 911)
Leader: Mullah Omar, Mutawakki,
Zaeef
When Taliban turned Extremist
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Arrival of Osama Bin Laden
The Puritan Dictatorship of Islam
Sacred Plan to Destroy
Buddhism
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Destruction of Buddhist Statutes of
Bamyan
Loss of Anti-American Sympathy
The Chinese “Rebirth” Proposal
Any Credit?
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The Cruel Stability
The Taliban Talk on Campus
Osama Bin Laden
& Mullah Omar
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Partnership During the War
against USSR
Assistance of Laden to Taliban
 Public Administration Expert
 Money from KSA
 Stronger Ideological Control
 Kabul as a Terrorist Base?
Symbiotic Relationship or Mere
Guest?
 The American Argument
 The Taliban Argument
Bush Doctrine and Afghanistan
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Bush Doctrine: Tailor-made for Taliban:
 “Those harboring terrorists will be
treated as terrorists”
 Against any Proxies for Taliban
Laden = Chief Suspect of Terrorism
 Taliban “Hosting” Laden
 Taliban = Chief Suspect of Terrorism
as well
 Must NOT be a Proxy War
Rationales Beneath the Table?
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Long-term Planning Conspiracy
Theory?
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Lack of Knowledge in USA on
Afghanistan Before 911
Vs Long-planned War against Iraq
Afghanistan = Route to Oil Only, not
Oil
Immediate Planning?
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Embarrassment of “No Enemies”
If Laden escaped elsewhere with no
evidence to show his existence, what
might America bomb? How could
they react?
Strategic Planning of Restructuring
Regional Order was only Added
During the War
The Sudden Collapse
of Taliban
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The “War” (Oct – Dec 2002)
Expected Duration:
 10 Years (Example of the Last
Superpower: USSR)
 2 Months for USA
Reasons behind the Sudden Collapse
 Military Reasons: US Technology
 Assistance of the Northern Alliance
 Bribery of the Pushtun Leaders in Taliban
 Retreat of KSA/ UAE Money
 The Great Betrayal of Pakistan
Anything Else?! – the Rebirth of
Taliban in the Future?
PART IV
Impacts
of the War
Assigned Readings
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Main Text:
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William Maley: “The Reconstruction of
Afghanistan” (B&D P.184-193)
Supplementary Text:
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Milton Bearden. “Graveyard of Empire”
(H&R P.83-96).
CNN’s The History of Afghanistan.
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trad
e.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html
The New Order in Afghanistan
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Coalition Government
under Hamid Karzai
Deposed Zahir Shah as
the “Symbolic Supreme
Leader”
Convention of Loya Jirga
Introduction of “Reforms”
Complete Disappearance
of Taliban, Mullah Omar
and Osama Bin Laden?!
Assessing the American Success
in terms of Anti-terrorism
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Eradication of a Terrorist Base YES
Eradication of Al-Qaeda? NO
Capture of Laden, Life or Dead? NO
International Sympathy:
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Shifting from the American side to the Arabic
side
More Terrorist Attacks after 911:
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Indonesia, Russia, Kenya, Philippines
If Afghanistan was not attacked, will there be
more attacks or less? Safer or more
dangerous?
Assessing the American Success in terms of
Establishing a New Regional Order
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American Grand Oil Plan?
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Retreat of Russian and Islamic
Influence in Afghanistan? Not Sure
Afghanistan became an “American
Lake”
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Central Asian Republics  Afghanistan
 Iraq  Turkey  Black Sea  USA?
Yes
Starting Point to Expand in the Region
Domino Effects
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Bush’s Attempt to Create “More
Afghanistans”
Neighboring Countries Wary of their
Easy Collapses
The Transition of
American Policies
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Before the War against
Taliban
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More Cautious, More Strategic
After the East Victory
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More Ambitious, More
Barbaric
Boom Vs Doom in the
New Afghanistan
Impacts on Afghanistan:
The Bright Side
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Freedom of Women
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Education for All Students
“Human” Entertainment
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Sima Samar: Deputy Premier
of Afghanistan
The Afghani National Soccer
Team in the Asian Olympic
Games
International Attention: the
Chance to Raise Donation…
Impacts on Afghanistan:
The Doom Side
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Return to the Warlord Era
 Urban Order Vs Rural Disorder
 Assassinations of Ministers
 Assassination Attempts against President
Karzai
Continuation of Poverty
 Still the “Opium Empire”
A “Full” American Protégé:
 Personal Guards of Hamid Karzal – Who
Are They?
 Who are Maintaining Order at Kabul?
 Or, is America being “Used” as a
“Barbarian” against the “Barbaric” Taliban?
PART V
Conclusion –
What is the Name
of the War?
Name of the War…
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“War of Anti-Terrorism”?
(USA)
“War of American
Imperialism”? (Laden)
“War of American
Conspiracy”? (Conspiracy
Theory)
“War of Afghani Rebirth”?
(US Humanitarians)
Name of the War (II)…
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“Civil War assisted by the
American Follies”? (Northern
Alliance)
“War of the nth Anti-aggression
Campaign of Afghanistan”?
(Afghan history)
War of No Meanings?
What is the Name of the War
against Iraq?
~~The End~~
Thank you for attending