Module 20: Economic Policy & the AD/AS Model Macroeconomic Policy: Because the long-run adjustment back to LRAS can take a long time, some economists believe that the government can help hurry-up the process, getting back to LR EQ. Stabilization Policy – the use of government policy to reduce the severity of recessions and to rein in excessively strong expansions. Demand shocks can be reversed by government intervention but supply shocks are not so easily manipulated. The Basics of Fiscal Policy: Government spending, transfers and taxation make up what we call fiscal policy. Government Spending: Local: Police cars for the city State: the system of State Parks Federal: military Transfer Payments: (some households) Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, VA benefits, food stamps, etc. Taxation: Sales tax, income tax, property tax, vehicle registration tax, excise taxes (gas, alcohol, tobacco), etc. IMPORTANT NOTE: GDP & AD are “besties”, they always move together! How does the government influence AD? G (government spending) affects GDP and thus AD. They can also influence C (consumer spending) by changing transfers and taxes. Remember Yd (disposable income), when it changes, C will change in the same direction. The gov’t can change Yd by changing taxes and gov’t transfers. Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy If we are find ourselves in a recessionary gap, fiscal policy should try to move AD to the right. Expansionary fiscal policy would be in order here. An increase in gov’t spending A cut in taxes An increase in gov’t transfers If we are in an inflationary gap situation, fiscal policy should try to move AD to the left. Contractionary fiscal policy would do the trick here. A decrease in gov’t spending An increase in taxes A decrease in gov’t transfers Lags in Fiscal Policy: Things look nice and easy in the model, but reality is a bit more complicated. Time lags can make this process pretty long. Recognition lag: It takes time for the gov’t to even realize that the gap exists due to getting good information (takes time to collect and analyze the data). Recessions are usually only recognized months after they actually start. Decision lag: Once the gap is recognized, it can take time to get a plan together and for congress to pass any legislation to get the ball rolling to close the gap. (Look at congress today, they can’t decide on anything!) Implementation lag: Yes, it even takes time to spend $$! Bids have to be analyzed for spending projects, roads have to be surveyed, etc. By the time the spending begins, the economy could already be self-correcting and the policy may push us to the other side of LRAS!