POLI 391- 008
INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
Professor Harvey Starr
Gambrell 432
777-7292; e-mail: starr-harvey@sc.edu
Department of Political Science
University of South Carolina
Spring 2014
Office Hours: Tues-Thurs 1:30-3:00pm
and by appointment
COURSE DESCRIPTION AND OVERVIEW
The contemporary international system poses a complex array of political, economic, ecological
and strategic problems and puzzles. One way to approach these complex issues, and the questions
"What can be done?" or "What must be done?" is to deal with the future through such endeavors as
forecasting, projections, and futurology. We also must recognize that the present world system is
only one outcome in a vast variety of possible world systems, and that we must begin to consider a
broad range of alternatives. To study about world order is to study about (alternative)
international futures. But, as Barry Hughes, co-author of your primary text, points out, to study the
future is to be concerned with choices, choices which must be made under conditions of
uncertainty: "We cannot know the future, but it is important to act in the face of that uncertainty.”
Hughes presents us with three questions to help deal with that uncertainty: "where do current
changes appear to be taking us? ...what kind of future would we prefer? ...how much leverage do
we have to bring about the future we prefer?" (Barry Hughes and Evan Hillebrand, Exploring and
Shaping International Futures, p.2). These questions will help to anchor the course and the
simulation which is at its core.
Students will learn the range of ways by which analysts have tried to think about and study the
future. We will briefly deal with general overviews, categorizations, and critiques of futurology.
We will then move on to the set of contemporary problems (the "problematique") and future
alternatives, applying futures concepts and approaches to contemporary issue areas: population;
economics; food and agriculture; energy; the environment; domestic and global sociopolitical
systems. These problem areas thus reflect, among other things, the politics of exchange and
distribution in energy and raw materials, environmental degradation, food, and technology, the
politics affecting labor and capital, and the politics of global security and conflict.
Students will learn how to explore the interdependencies and trade-offs among the issues of the
problematique through the use of computer simulation. The central text of the course is the Hughes
and Hillebrand book noted above. In the authors’ words (p.xv): "This book will immerse you in
thinking about global futures and a wide range of the issues and challenges you individually and
we collectively face around human development and sustainability... The book involves you in
exploring alternative futures in two ways. The first is via traditional text...through the
extrapolation of trends and through causal understanding of the world... The second method
involves you even more actively in exploration of alternative futures-- through the use of a highly
interactive computer simulation model called International Futures (IFs). IFs is a global model that
simulates long-term population, economic, food, energy, environmental, and sociopolitical
developments.” The central activity of the course will be the analysis of current trends and future
scenarios through IFs.
STUDENT REQUIREMENTS
Participation
There are two keys to the nature of this course. First, this course will be run as a proseminar. As
such, your participation in class discussions, class presentations, and class activities related to
mastery of the simulation, is vital. You must be present to participate. You must do the reading in
order to participate. All reading assignments are to be considered an essential part of the course
requirements. There is a relatively light reading load for an upper level seminar. Students will be
expected to have completed the relevant reading assignment before coming to class. Students will
also be expected to discuss that reading with some degree of thought and coherency. Class
Participation (the quantity and quality of participation in class discussion which includes mastery
of reading assignments; the completion and quality of class presentations) will comprise 25% of
the course grade. Each student must see the instructor during the week preceding Spring Break
(that is, during the week of March 3) for an interim evaluation of class participation.
Written Assignments
The second key is the IFs simulation. It is the basis (or objective) for all of the course exercises,
papers, presentations, and the final project.
Thus, 25% of the grade will be determined by performance on:
– Basic IFs Exercises
– Parameter and Variable Reports
– Scenario Designs
The final 50% of the grade will be based on the International Futures Scenario Final Project.
These assignments will be described in more detail below.
Course Reading
Books required for purchase (both are paperback):
● Barry Hughes and Evan Hillebrand, Exploring and Shaping International Futures (Paradigm,
2006)
● James Harf and Mark Owen Lombardi, eds., Taking Sides: Clashing Views on Global Issues, 8th
edition (McGraw-Hill, 2013)
Additional readings will be made available on Blackboard (indicated by BB), or will be found on
the International Futures (University of Denver) website: http://www.ifs.du.edu/.
COURSE OUTLINE AND READING ASSIGNMENTS
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Course Introduction/Organization (Jan.14)
PART I
THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE
1. The Future (Jan.16, 21)
Required Reading
Max Singer, "What is Happening in History," P.S., March 1997 [BB]
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.1, Appendix 1, Appendix 2
Edward Cornish, THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE, chs.4 [BB]
UN MILLENNIUM Development Goals– review goals and rest of website at:
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/mdgoverview/
Harf & Lombardi, “Introduction”
2. Overview of Futures Studies (Jan.23, 28)
Required Reading
Barry Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, chs.2, 3 [BB]
Cornish, THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE, chs. 6, 7 [BB]
National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, pp. i-xiv
[BB]
PART II
SIMULATING THE FUTURE (and Introducing the “Problematique”)
1. The Basics of IFs (Jan.30, Feb.4)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, chs.2, 3, 12
Begin reading Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.4; and start Help and Display menus
–General link to the “Help Home” page. You can look at these topics and
others as well as begin a thorough review of IFS—beginning with links at
top of page: www.du.edu/ifs/help
2. Variables, Parameters, and Basic IFs Exercises (Feb.6, 11, 13)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.4
– IFs Training Manual (BB) is an expanded version of ch.4; skim through for more
detail where necessary and to help in thinking about the course paper
– Guide to Scenario Analysis in IFs (BB), pp.5-10 (and skim through other parts
that interest you in regard to thinking about the course paper)
– Carefully read and think about the suggested exercises presented in each section
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designated by the right arrows (→ ) in Hughes & Hillebrand , ch.4
– These same questions/issues will be covered in The Basic IFs Exercises. These
are described below.
– Verbal Variable and Parameter Reports in class
PART III THE GLOBAL PROBLEMATIQUE: ISSUES, FACTORS, RELATIONSHIPS
1. Population (Feb.18, 20)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.5
Harf & Lombardi, Unit 1
2. Economics (Feb.25, 27)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.6
Harf & Lombardi, Unit 4
3. Food and Agriculture (Mar.4, 6)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.7
Harf & Lombardi, Unit 2, section 2.2, p.54
— Spring Break —
4. Energy (Mar.18, 20)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.8
NIC, Global Trends, pp.31-38 [BB]
The Economist Global Energy Crisis Debate at:
http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/131
First, click on the link to the Special Report on the Future of Energy, then
read the debate between Romm and Meisen
— No Class March 25 and 27—
5. Environment (Apr 1, 3)
Required Reading
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Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.9
Harf & Lombardi, Unit 2, sections 2.1, 2.3, 2.4
6. Domestic Social and Political Systems (Apr.8, 10)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch.10
Harf & Lombardi, Unit 3
7. The Global Sociopolitical System (Apr.15-17)
Required Reading
Hughes & Hillebrand, ch. 11
Harf & Lombardi, Unit 5
PART IV
SCENARIOS OF CHANGE
1. Changing the Future: Scenario Choices and Outcomes (Apr.22, 24)
Discussions and critiques of International Futures Scenario Final Project papers
based on student presentations/reports
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PAPER DESCRIPTIONS
●● Basic IFs Exercises
Part II of the course (January 30 to February 13) introduces students to the basic components and
capabilities of the IFs simulation. A set of exercises indicating that students have achieved some
familiarity with the basic components and procedures involved in the simulation will be submitted
when the class begins the second section of Part II (February 6-13). The exercises will be graded
simply pass/fail, and will be due in class on February 6.
Go again to: http://www.ifs.du.edu/assets/documents/syllabi/so191syl.htm#Exercises
This opens up a link to the syllabus of Donald Hodgson of Fairfield College, for the SO191 Course
Syllabus. Click on each of the exercises—Exercise #1, #2, and #3—and follow the instructions.
For both Exercise #1 and #2 you also need to add the following: Repeat both Exercises #1 and #2
for any single country/region that you select, and any other variable(s) that you select.
●● Parameter and Variable Reports
Review Tables 4.2, 4.4, and 4.5 for selected variables and parameters. On February 6 and 11 we
will discuss the nature and role of these parameters. Earlier in the semester we will divide the
parameters (in Table 4.4) equally among class members. For each parameter you will produce a
paragraph or two, explaining what the parameter is, which variables it is most closely related to,
and how it might be important to the simulation.
Having downloaded version 6.75 of IFs, you would open up the main page. Then click on “Use
IFs.” Click on the box with “Continue.” This will bring you to the page “Welcome to International
Futures,” where you will hit “load and continue.” The Main Menu will appear, and you’ll rest your
cursor on Scenario Analysis. Click the “Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree” under Scenario
Analysis. Select from the list of broad areas on the left to find your parameter of interest. For
example, if you have mortm (or Mortality multiplier), you would click on the box next to
“Technological Change” and get a drop-down menu with “Demographic/Population.” Click on
that and you’ll find mortm. Click on that, and you’ll see the following options: Select, Drivers,
Explain, View Equations, Define. You’ll need to go beyond the brief description in Define. Use
the other options except for Select (Drivers, Explain, View Equations) to generate your 1-2
paragraph discussion of the parameter.
Students will be responsible for presenting their material on the parameters in class on either
February 11 or 13. Both a hard copy and an electronic copy of your written Parameter and Variable
Reports will be due by class time on February 18. The electronic copy of the reports (in Word or
as a PDF) will be posted on Blackboard.
●● Scenario Designs
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These papers (six double spaced pages maximum length) will be due by Tuesday, April 1. They
are described below in the discussion of the International Futures Scenario Final Project.
NOTE: These three activities will combine to account for 25% of the course grade.
PAPER DESCRIPTION
International Futures Scenario Final Project (50% of grade)
The central activity of the course is the preparation (and presentation) of the International Futures
Scenario Final Project. This project requires you to find some aspect of the global system that is of
interest to you, and to explore (in any of a number of ways) what the future might look like given
the continuation and change in parameters, behavior, and policy choices. Hughes has asked:
"How do we want the future to look? What leverage do we have?" You will be investigating the
consequences-- both intended and unintended-- of the scenario you have selected, along with the
changes in parameters and variables.
The basic components of the Final Project include the following (with thanks to Brian Pollins of
Ohio State University from whose assignment I have borrowed, but substantially modified):
1) Choose one area of particular interest to you.
Each student will select one of the major issues of the problematique that were covered in
the course: population; economics; food and agriculture; energy; the environment;
domestic and global sociopolitical systems. While we will not finish class discussion of
these areas until April 17, earlier readings, such as Hughes and Hillebrand, chapters 2, 3
and 4, our coverage of parameters, as well as interests that you have developed in other
courses, should have led you to an area of interest by the week of March 3, when you see
the instructor to discuss class participation. During that meeting you and the instructor will
also agree on an area of interest for your Final Project.
2) Propose a change that you think might improve the situation which the world faces.
In selecting an area of interest, you will have identified current or potential problems or
dilemmas. You may investigate your area of interest in different ways: looking at a single
country/region (e.g. China or the USA or Africa or OECD) looking at one or more
countries/regions (e.g. the USA, EU27, G20, NAFTA; or China and India and Asia and
Pacific); looking at the world system as a whole. You may also use any combination of
these (e.g. the World plus the US plus China; or the World plus EU27 plus OECD).
Whichever alternative you select, you must explain/justify why you have taken this
country/region focus given the area of interest of your scenario.
In suggesting "changes," you are, in effect, creating a new "scenario" of how you think the
world would look given different or altered conditions. The "change" that you suggest must
be based within some theoretical context. That is, in your assigned reading there are many
arguments as to global interdependencies, and hypotheses about what is related to what,
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and what things should lead to what changes. These are perhaps most clearly presented in
Hughes and Hillebrand, chapters 2, 3 and 4. Chapter 3 is particularly useful in providing
"models" of relationships-- how variables, parameters and factors might interact; (see also
“Explain” and “View Equations” under Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree). See also
pp.5-10 in the Guide to Scenario Analysis that is posted to Blackboard (as well as sections
in the Training Manual).
Chapter 3 in Hughes’ World Futures includes a section called "Forecasting: Theories and
Models," which might also help you in coming up with a scenario and providing its
theoretical justification. There are other sources that might help in this regard as well. For
instance, look at the “Documents” link on the front page of the IFs website (the
“bibliography” section). Harf and Lombardi might be used in a similar manner—look at
the materials listed under the “Exploring the Issue” section at the end of each Unit,
especially “Additional Resources.” Students should feel free to discuss their area of
interest with the instructor for additional sources of theoretical material (as well as
instructors in other courses!). But note that while it could be very helpful to use these other
materials (articles, books, reports) that you do not have to go beyond the course readings.
The scenario should also reflect your understanding of the study of the future-- including
the different types of change, issues of the utility and problems of extrapolation, projection,
etc.
3) Create a model that reflects your scenario (selecting parameters/table
functions/variables).
In creating your scenario you will have selected some factor/set of factors-- explaining
which ones have been selected and why, and what the hypothesized direction and
magnitude of impact might be. Now you must set out which parameters/table
functions/variables are to be involved, what your independent and dependent variables are.
Set out the hypothesized consequences; (later, when running your scenario you can match
the actual consequences, which are both intended and unintended, against the hypotheses).
You should make clear whether or not your purpose is to maximize some condition,
minimize some condition, simply to see what happens when some changes are made,
and/or to see if hypothesized expectations are met.
NOTE: The results of the activities involved in components #2 and #3 will be condensed
into the Scenario Design paper (6 double-spaced pages maximum). Scenario Design
papers are due on April 1.
4) Set up the model run of your scenario, run it, compare the results of your scenario to
results from the Base Run.
You need to see how your scenario for a particular country/region (or combination thereof)
affects that same country/region, other countries/regions, and the world. If your scenario
starts out with a focus on the world, then you need to see how your scenario affects various
countries/regions as well as the world. You also need to see how the changes in your
scenario affect not only your specific area of interest (e.g. energy) but at least one other
area (e.g. economic development or population). The central question is did your proposed
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change make a difference? Did you obtain the desired outcome? What about higher-order
or interdependence effects? (That is, how did your changes affect other countries/regions
and/or other areas of interest?).
5) Write up a report describing the various components and steps involved in the Final
Project.
Carefully construct a Final Report which reflects the thinking that went into the
development of your scenario, the country/region focus, the area of interest selected, the
steps you followed in looking at your scenario (which could be set for an end point of 2100
or multiple time periods-- e.g. 2007, 2030, 2050). Summarize the results in terms of the
theory behind your scenario, and in comparison to the Base Run. You must include
relevant tables, charts, graphs, scatterplots, etc. (e.g. including the data for all relevant
aspects of the scenario, both before and after changes in the parameters and independent
variables). [NOTE: While IFs is not set up with its own statistical package, you should feel
free to export results to any statistical package with which you are familiar for additional
analyses. Such analyses are not required.]
Provide conclusions-- what does this all mean? What does it mean for policy? What does it
mean for current trends? What does it mean for the interdependence among issue areas?
How did this project affect your own thinking about global problems and potential
solutions? What was missing-- from your own scenario? from IFs in general?
NOTE: The results of the analyses in your International Futures Scenario Final Projects
will provide the basis for student reports and discussions on April 22 and 24. The Final
Projects are due to the instructor by 4:00 pm, Thursday, May 1. Papers should be
double-spaced (normal margins normal fonts such as Times Roman 12), and be between
15-25 pages in length. This page limit does not count tables, charts, graphs, or a list of
references.
HINTS:
♦ You should spend time playing with IFs in general, and your model in particular. Just like any
"game" software you may have used, there is no substitute for experience. The more time you
spend simply playing with IFs and the model, the easier the assignment will become (and the more
complex and more interesting and more fascinating the exercise will be for you). You might want
to review some of the other syllabi that are provided on the IFs web page.
♦ Try one change at a time, that is, do not make multiple changes on your model all at once
because that will make it more difficult to trace the effects of any single change as its effects work
their way through the system. Remember, simulation is one way in which we can "experiment," by
being able to control cause and effect. Develop and run your model in such ways as to maximize
the control in your experiment.
♦ Create a master table of some kind which keeps track of: initial values of parameters and
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variables; changes made to these parameters or variables (alone or in combination); and
consequences for interpolated or final values (for 2100 or any year between 1960 and 2100). Be
sure to note which country/region/[world] (or combination) is being analyzed, and for which
country/region/[world] (or combination) you are presenting results.
*******
PLEASE NOTE IMPORTANT DATES FOR POLI 391L:
February 6
February 11-13
February 18
March 3-7
April 4
April 21-28
May 2
Basic IFs Exercises due
Verbal Parameter and Variable Reports in class
Parameter and Variable Reports due
Meetings with instructor on class participation; Futures Scenario area of
interest consultation
Scenario Designs due
Verbal Final Project reports in class
Final Projects due
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