Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty July 2006 Welfare Analysis of Distribution Inequality and Poverty Measurement Technical University of Lisbon Frank Cowell http://darp.lse.ac.uk/lisbon2006 Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Introduction From introductory lecture… …should be able to incorporate inequality and poverty analysis into standard welfare economics In this lecture, focus on the underlying principles Examine the underlying motivation for concern with redistribution Why is this necessary? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Overview... Welfare Analysis of Distribution Foundation Roots in basic microeconomics Income, welfare, utility The basis for redistribution Risk and welfare Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Agenda Briefly reconsider the rôle for government Central problem is often simply depicted We will examine the components of this problem Then consider how social values fit in. A policy trade-off…? A classic trade-off Social values An optimum? efficiency Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty A standard approach? Need to define terms... What is “efficiency”? What is “equity”? equity Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Policy options “Equity-efficiency trade-off” idea raises some serious questions. Is a trade-off actually necessary? If so, what does it mean? And how to make the choice from the trade-off options? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Efficiency-equity trade-off 1 Is there necessarily a trade-off? Not if we are inside the frontier: Not if we can redistribute resources without transactions cost. Dismiss such cases as frivolous? Not, perhaps in the world of practical politics But this is only possible with lump-sum transfers Encounter informational problems So there is some meaning to the trade-off Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Efficiency-equity trade-off 2 Not clear what goes on the axes What is efficiency? Standard approach to efficiency gains losses: PE provides a criterion for the goal of efficiency itself. Pareto criterion gives no guidance away from efficient point. Based on cost-benefit analysis Used as a criterion for applications in Public Economics such as tax design. What is equity? Raises issues of definition. Also of the case for egalitarianism (Putterman et al. - JEL98). Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Components of the trade-off Specification of the technology A definition of equity Also related concepts such as inequality See next lecture An analysis of the nature of the trade-off Enables precise definition of efficiency Informational problems A statement of social preferences What is the basis for concern with distribution? We deal with this in the current lecture Review the alternative welfare approaches Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Welfare approaches 1 The constitutional approach Purely ordinal Uses peoples’ orderings of social states Including attitude to redistribution Motive for redistribution in terms of social states must come from somewhere This is extremely demanding Run into the Arrow problem Hence – hopelessly indecisive? No clear imperative for action Difficulties of implementation Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Welfare approaches 2 Equity as a fundamental principle like “efficiency” Some attempts at formalising this in economics E.g. Varian (1974) “no-envy” criterion But these are usually very restrictive Usually need to seek support on philosophical base outside economics But what? Both traditional and modern approaches To be reviewed later Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Welfare approaches 3 Welfarism Uses a cardinally measurable and interpersonally comparable approach to welfare. Usually based on individualism Provides the basis for a coherent model Need to examine the basic building blocks… Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Overview... Welfare Analysis of Distribution Foundation The basic units of analysis Income, welfare, utility The basis for redistribution Risk and welfare Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Ingredients of an approach A model of individual resources A measure of individual welfare A basis for interpersonal comparisons An intellectual base for state intervention We will deal with the first three of these now. Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Individual resources and distribution We adopt two simple paradigms concerning Fixed total resources: income The cake-sharing problem The general case with production Incorporates incentive effects Irene and Janet Often distributional analysis can be conducted in terms of typical individuals i and j. The F-form approach In some cases one needs a more general distributional notation Two persons The feasible set The interesting distributions The basic cake-sharing income-distribution problem Janet’s income Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty A simple model for the distributional problem Income distributions with given total 45° 0 Irene’s income Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Limitations of this basic model Just 2 persons Fixed-size cake Economic growth? Waste through distortion? Essential to first-best welfare economics Costlessly transferable incomes n 3 persons for the inequality problem The “leaky bucket” problem (Okun 1975) Analysed further in discussion of incentives Incomes or utilities? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Example 1 Example 2 For welfare purposes we are concerned with utility... Comparability without measurability : Imagine a world where access to public services determines utility and the following ordering is recognised: •Gas+Electricity •Electricity only •Gas only •Neither It makes no sense to say “U(G+E) =2U(E)”, but you could still compare individuals. Measurability without comparability: Imagine a world where utility is proportional to income, but the constant of proportionality is known to depend on family characteristics which may be unobservable. Double a family’s income and you double each member’s utility; but you cannot compare utilities of persons from different families. What is the relationship of utility to income? What properties does utility have? Is it measurable? Is it comparable? These properties are independent We usually need both We need a simple model of utility.... Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Ingredients a: personal attributes y: income Could be exogenous Or you can model as a function of attributes: y=y(a) u: individual utility Identity Needs Abilities Special “merit” or “desert” Several ways of modelling this… …see below x: “equivalised” income Dollar/Pound/Euro units… Can be treated as a version of “utility” Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Ingredients (2) F : distribution function U : utility function Standard tool borrowed from statistics A variety of specifications – see below Gives indicator of how “well-off” a person of given attributes is c : equivalisation function A simple way of accounting for differences in needs Perhaps too simple? We will try something different in the next lecture Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Basic questions about income Is it unique? How comprehensive should it be? What is the relevant receiving unit? Is it comparable between persons? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Income: Uniqueness? Should we use univariate or multivariate analysis? A relationship between different types of “income”? income and expenditure? income and wealth? income over time? covariance of earnings and asset income? conditional transfers? Several definitions may be relevant? gross income? disposable income? other concepts? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Income: comprehensiveness? Is income “full income”? Is income a proxy for economic welfare? discount for risk? valuation over time?.. Can income be zero? final income + value of leisure +...? rental income? ... or less than zero? business losses? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Income: Comparability? Price adjustment Adjustment for needs and household size Normalise by price indices Usual approach is to introduce equivalence scales The equivalence transformation is x = c ( y, a ) Equivalised income personal attributes nominal income Usually a simplifying assumption is made. Write transformation as an income-independent Number of equivalence scale: equivalent adults x = y / n (a) Where does the function c come from? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Equivalence Scales We will assume that there is an agreed method of determining equivalence scales. But there is a variety of possible sources of information for equivalence scales: From official government sources From international bodies such as OECD From econometric models of household budgets. Consider an example of the last of these: Plot share of food in budget against household income A reference household type... sfood Engel Equivalence Scale proxy for “need” Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty A model of income and need childless couple couple with children xr yr From budget studies x, y 0 xi yi income Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Alternative models of utility u = U (y) u = U (y; a) Inter-personally comparable utility Individualistic utility May not be comparable, depending on information about a. u = U (y, F) Concern for distribution as a kind of externality Need not be benevolent concern Evidence that people are Concerned about relative incomes “upward looking” in their comparisons. Ferrar-i-Carbonell (2005) x = c(y ; a) = y / n(a) A comparable money-metric utility? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty The relationship between utility and income: u Increase concavity u = U(y) ^ u = U(y) y Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty A simple model As an example take the iso-elastic form: y1 – d – 1 U(y) = ———— , d 1 –d We can think of d as risk aversion But it may take on an additional welfare significance Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty What to do with this information? We need a method of appraising either the distribution of utilities… …or, the system by which they were produced This involves fundamentally different approaches to welfare judgments. Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Overview... Welfare Analysis of Distribution Foundation Philosophies, social welfare and the basis for intervention Income, welfare, utility The basis for redistribution Risk and welfare Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Five intellectual bases for public action …and five social philosophers Entitlement theories Unanimity Bentham Concern with the least advantaged Pareto Utilitarianism Nozick Rawls Egalitarianism Plato Standard cake-sharing model N stands for “Nozick” Janet’s income Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty A distributional outcome N implications for utility possibilities 45° 0 Irene’s income Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Utility-possibility set Plot utility on the axes Simple cake-sharing uj The effect of utility interdependence N N Assuming that U is strictly concave... …and that U is the same function for both Irene and Janet. 45° 0 ui Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Should we move from N? What is the case for shifting from the status-quo point? Answer differs dramatically according to social philosophy: Entitlement approach is concerned with process Other approaches concerned with end-states Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Entitlement approach Focus on Nozick (Anarchy, State and Utopia, 1974). Answer depends crucially on how N came about Distinguish three key issues: fairness in original acquisition fair transfers rectification of past injustice Presumption is that there will be little or no role for the State “Night watchman” Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Pareto Criterion Pareto unanimity criterion is an end-state principle Individualistic Based on utilities Approve the move from N to another point… …if at least one person gains …and no-one loses But utility may have a complicated relationship with income May depend on the income of others See how Pareto applies in the simple example Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Pareto improvement: simple case The utility-possibility set again The initial point uj Pareto superior points N No case for intervention? 0 45° ui Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty End-state approaches: beyond Pareto Pareto criterion can be indecisive Alternative end state approaches use a social welfare function What principles should this embody? Typically get unique solution Individualism? The Pareto principle? Additivity? Take a simple example that combines them all... Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Benthamite approach General principle is “Seek the greatest good of the greatest number” This is typically interpreted as maximising the sum of individual welfare. In Irene-Janet terms: u1 + u2 + ...+ un More generally the SWF is: WB = u dF(u) Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Distributional implications of utilitarianism Much of public economics uses utilitarianism. But does utilitarianism provide a basis for egalitarian transfers? Efficiency criteria Sacrifice theories in taxation Sen has argued that this is a common fallacy Sen and Foster (1997) Again look at this within the simple model Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Benthamite redistribution? Take a symmetric utilitypossibility set uj The initial distribution Benthamite welfare contour Maximise welfare Optimum in this case Implied tax/transfer N B ui+uj = constant 0 45° ui The general case? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty The general case... uj N C Incorporates differential incentive effects etc. N. The status quo B Pareto improvements Points that Paretodominate N C The voluntary solution? Anywhere above C might be a candidate B. Benthamite solution ui 0 Paretianism leads to multiple solutions Benthamite utilitarianism leads to a unique, possibly different, solution. Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty General case: discussion A motive for changing distribution? Nozickians might still insist that no move from N is justified unless it came through private voluntary action Applies even to C Implementation: Private voluntary action might not be able to implement C Could rise if there were many individuals Case for egalitarianism? Clearly Bentham approach does not usually imply egalitarian outcome. Consider two further alternative approaches: Concern for the least advantaged (Rawls) Egalitarianism Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Rawls (1971) Rawls’ distributional philosophy is based on two fundamental principles: 1. 2. Economic focus has usually been on 2 each person has equal right to the most extensive scheme of equal basic liberties compatible with a similar scheme of liberties for all society should so order its decisions as to secure the best outcome for the least advantaged Argument based on reasoning behind a “veil of ignorance” I do not know which position in society I have when making social judgment Needs careful interpretation Avoid confusion with probabilistic approach later Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty The Rawls approach…? What is meant by the difference principle? This is typically interpreted as maximising the welfare of the worst-off person. Based on simplistic interpretation of veil of ignorance argument Rawls interpreted it differently But rather vaguely In Irene-Janet terms: min {u1 , u2 , ..., un} So the suggested SWF is: WR = {min u: F(u)>0} Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Egalitarianism? Origin goes back to Plato… …but reinterpreted by Meade (1974). “Superegalitarianism” Welfare is perceived in terms of pairwise differences: [ui - uj]... Welfare might not be expressible as a neat additive expression involving individual utilities. Finds an echo in more recent welfare developments Covered in a later lecture Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty General case (2) uj N A 'Rawlsian' solution Superegalitarianism Contours of max min function R Maxi-min does not imply equality E Superegalitaranism implies equality ui 0 Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Bergson-Samuelson approach But why an additive form of the SWF? We could just use a weaker individualistic form. This is the basis of the Bergson-Samuelson formulation A generalisation Subsumes several welfare concepts In Irene-Janet terms: W(u1 , u2 , ..., un) More generally the SWF is: WBS = W(F) Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty General individualistic welfare The specific welfare functions are special cases of Bergson-Samuelson. Most satisfy the principle of additivity Except for the last one (utility differences) In Irene-Janet terms this means we can write: u(u1) + u(u2) + ... + u(un) More generally the SWF is: WBSa = u(u) dF(u) This is clear for Bentham where u(u)= u. But… Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty General individualistic welfare (2) …we can say more Again take the iso-elastic form, this time of the (social) u-function: u 1–e – 1 u(u) = ————, e 1–e Bentham corresponds to the case e = . Max-min (“Rawls”) corresponds to the case e=. Intermediate cases (0<e<) are interesting too Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty General case (closeup) B. Benthamite (e = 0) W. Intermediate (e = 1) R. 'Rawlsian' ( e =) B ‘E. Superegalitarianism' (no e value) W E R Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty A brief summary Entitlement theories Unanimity A basis for egalitarianism? Concern with the least advantaged Blairism? Utilitarianism Thatcherism? How to be interpreted? (Super)-egalitarianism Out of fashion in UK. Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Overview... Welfare Analysis of Distribution Foundation A reinvention of utilitarianism? Income, welfare, utility The basis for redistribution Risk and welfare Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty But where do the values in the SWF come from...? Consensus High-minded idealism Social and private values...? The PLUM principle Again the problem of the “Arrow Theorem...” “People Like Us Matter” – a cynical approach The Harsanyi approach Based on individual rationality under uncertainty take another look... Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty High-minded idealism? Do people care about inequality or other distributional issues? Multiple values argument Externality argument Suppose that people are “schizophrenic” They have two sets of values, private and public. People treat the income distribution as a “public good” Hochman and Rodgers (AER 1969) Motivates the formulation u = U (y, F) Individuals care about the income distribution F Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty The PLUM principle Interest groups may determine what the SWF is Champernowne and Cowell (1998) No reason to suppose that it has a direct connection with individual utilities However we may still be able to say something about how values are/should be determined For example they should at least be consistent Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty An approach based on risk analysis Social welfare is based individual utility Each citizen ranks social states on the basis of expected utility These utilities concern life prospects Utility is of a representative person Harsanyi (Journal of Political Economy 1953, 1955) made behind a “veil of ignorance” similar to Rawls Ignorance concerns income, wealth, social position etc But what of personal values? We need to reconsider and reinterpret the sum-of-utilities approach. Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Reinterpret sum-of-utilities The Irene-Janet version: u1 + u2 + ...+ un This is equivalent to: (1/n)u1 + (1/n)u2 + ...+ (1/n)un Reinterpreted as: p1u1 + p2u2 + ...+ pnun , where pi := 1/n Which is simply E ui Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Reinterpret sum-of-utilities (2) The formal utility function: u dF(u) This is equivalent to: U(y) f(y)dy Reinterpreted as: U(y(a)) p(a) da Which is simply E U(y(a)) How do we reach this conclusion…? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Welfare and Risk? Expect links between welfare and risk analysis Argument by analogy Atkinson (JET 1970) on inequality The Harsanyi paradigm (J.Pol.E. 1953, 1955) Harsanyi’s contribution is fundamental Consists of two strands. See Amiel et al (2005) Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Harsanyi 1 Aggregation theorem Consider preferences over set of lotteries L Individuals’ preferences Vi satisfy EU axioms i=1,…,n Social preference V satisfies EU axioms Assume Pareto indifference is satisfied Then there are numbers ai and b such that, for all pL Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Harsanyi 1 (contd) Powerful result Does not assume interpersonal utility comparisons. If such comparisons ruled out, the ai are based on the evaluator’s value judgments (Harsanyi 1978, p. 227) personal? arbitrary? the evaluator? “Judges and other public officials” (1978, p. 226) Need not be a member of the society Must satisfy some consistency requirements Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Harsanyi 2 Impartial observer theorem. Basic idea already in Vickrey (1945). Assumes interpersonal comparisons of utility. An impartial observer sympathetic to the interests of each member of society makes value judgments. The observer is to imagine himself being person i. i’s objective circumstances i’s preferences Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Harsanyi 2 (contd) How to get a representative person? Thought experiment Evaluator imagines he has an equal chance of being any person in society Equal consideration to each person’s interests. Impartial observer calculates average expected utility of each lottery in L: I.e. person j’s expected utility Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Implications of Harsanyi approach The aggregation theorem gives an argument for additivity The “representative person” induces a probabilistic approach Then social welfare is found to be inherited from individual expected utility But on what basis do we get the probabilities here? And is “expectations” an appropriate basis for social choice? Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Harsanyi: Some difficulties Are preferences known behind the “Veil of ignorance”? Not in the Rawls approach But Harsanyi assumes that representative person knows others utilities Is it useful to suppose equal ignorance? Subjective probabilities may be inconsistent Should we be concerned only with expected utility? It is not clear that individuals view risk-choices and distributional choices in the same way Cowell and Schokkaert (EER 2001). Carlsson et al (Economica 2005) Kroll and Davidovitz (2003) the veil of ignorance the cynical approach a general view probability Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Identity | | | 1 2 3 | | i n identity Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty A difficulty with expected utility? Suppose the outcomes depend on uncertain events probabilities of Events 1,2 are (p, 1- p) Payoffs for persons (i,j) under two policies are Policy a b Event 2 (1,) (,1) Consider choice between policies a and b Expected payoffs are: Event 1 (1,) (1,) Under a: (1,0) Under b: (p, 1- p) Should society be indifferent between a and b? Mobility may be important as well as expected outcome See Diamond (Journal of Political Economy 1967). Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Views on redistribution Source: Ravallion and Lokshin (J. Pub. E. 2000) Clearly views on distribution depend on (i) your current position and (ii) your expectations Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty Concluding remarks We can construct a model with an individualistic base for welfare comparisons. The alternative social philosophies may give support to redistributive arguments, But it raises some awkward questions... Should the social basis for redistribution rest on private tastes for equality or aversion to misery? Should it rest on individual attitudes to risk? What if people like seeing the poor..? What if people are not risk-averse? We will come back to consider the implications of these questions Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty References 1 Amiel, Y., Cowell, F.A. and Gaertner, W. (2005) “To Be or not To Be Involved: A Questionnaire-Experimental View on Harsanyi’s Utilitarian Ethics, Distributional Analysis research Programme Discussion Paper, STICERD, LSE. Arrow, K. J. (1951) Social Choice and Individual Values ,Wiley, New York Carlsson et al (2005) “Are people inequality averse or just risk averse?” Economica, 72 Cowell, F. A. and Schokkaert, E. (2001), “Risk Perceptions and Distributional Judgments”, European Economic Review, 42, 941-952. Diamond, P.A. (1967) “Cardinal welfare, individualistic ethics and interpersonal comparison of utility: comment,” Journal of Political Economy, 75, 765-766. Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A. (2005) “Income and well-being: an empirical analysis of the comparison income effect”, Journal of Public Economics, 89, 997-1019 Harsanyi, J. (1953) “Cardinal utility in welfare economics and in the theory of risk-taking”, Journal of Political Economy, 61, 434-435 Harsanyi, J. (1955) “Cardinal welfare, individualistic ethics and interpersonal comparison of utility,” Journal of Political Economy, 63, 309-321. Harsanyi, J. (1978) Bayesian decision theory and utilitarian ethics, American Economic Review, 68, 223-228 Frank Cowell: TU Lisbon – Inequality & Poverty References 2 Hochman, H. and Rodgers, J.D. (1969) Pareto-optimal redistribution, American Economic Review, 59, 542-557 Kroll, Y. and Davidovitz, L. (2003) “Inequality aversion versus risk aversion.” Economica, 70, 19-29 Meade, J.E. (1976) The Just Economy, Allen and Unwin, London Nozick (1974) Anarchy, State and Utopia, Basic Books, New York Okun, A. M. (1975) Equality and Efficiency: the Big Trade-off, Brookings Institution, Washington. Putterman, L. and Roemer, J. and Silvestre, J. (1998) “Does egalitarianism have a future?”, Journal of Economic Literature, 36, 861-902 . Ravallion, M. and Lokshin, M (2000) “Who wants to redistribute? The tunnel effect in 1990s Russia,” Journal of Public Economics, 76, 87104. Rawls, J. (1971) A Theory of Justice, Harvard University Press Sen, A.K. and Foster, J. (1997) On Economic Inequality, Clarendon Press, Oxford Varian, H. R. (1974) “Equity, Envy and Efficiency”, Journal of Economic Theory, 9, 3-91 Vickrey, W.S. (1945) “Measuring marginal utility by reaction to risk,” Econometrica, 13, 319-333.