Modeling Working Group Update TAS- Steering Group July , 2015 Tom Miller- MWG Chair W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 2 Modeling Working Group 1. 2. 3. 4. W E Present MWG Work Plan Tom Miller Hurdles Tom Miller Prospects for Clearing Hurdles Stan Holland Potential Work Plan Adjustments Tom Miller S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 3 1- MWG Work Plan • Implement ABB Gridview Modeling Enhancements – – – – • • • • W E Multi-day look-ahead dispatch logic FERC 789 Operating Reserve Demand Response Programs Hydro Modeling Other High Priority Modeling “Deeper Dive” Validation Process improvement: tracking modeling Standard Sensitivities and Scenario S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 4 2015 Modeling Enhancements W No. Modeling Enhancement 1 Reserves FERC 789 Requirements & Flexibility Reserve Calculation 2 System Constraints Develop hierarchy for all system constraints (hard/soft) Including back-down protocol and emergency power 3 DRP Develop Gridview DRP Modeling Options to replace LBNL method 4 Look Ahead Develop look-ahead logics for all dis-patchable resources 5 Hydro PLF (Load Net Wind/Solar) and HTC-LMP Reference Hydro Contribution to reserves (frequency response issue) 6 Resource Modeling Solar-Thermal, Storage Technologies, Geothermal, Advanced Technologies, Existing Co-Generation 7 Intertie Multi-hour Ramping limits 8 Electric Topology BA Level /Reserve Pools Enhancements, Hurdle Rates across Major Inter-faces 9 CA GHG Linear Programming of import penalty for CA Global Initiative 10 CCGT Modeling of GT-Steam Generator Components E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 5 2- Hurdles • • • • • Lost Time: Lag from 2015 as Transition Year Going Forward: Time availability of WECC Staff WECC Re-Staffing Budget for ABB Support Uncertainty: Evolving TEPPC Protocol, IRAM and TEPPC Role (FERC Order 1000) • Need to develop 2016 Goals for Revised Study Plan W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 6 3- Prospects for Clearing Hurdles • Stan Holland Discussion W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 7 4- Potential Work Plan Adjustments Go Forward with Reduced/Deferred MWG Work Plan • Size MWG Work Plan commensurate with WECC Staff availability • Leverage MWG Gridview User’s/WECC-staff knowledge for implementation of enhancements w/o ABB support Position for Future Study Plan and 2026 Common Case • Validation and Calibration 2024 CC for use in new 2026 Common Case • Study Results (MWG Perspective): Deeper Dive to identify key metrics • Analytic Platform: (1) Investigate practical translations between PCM and PF; (2) support developemnt of zonal model • Support Long-term Planning Tool: Validation/Calibration • Support Development of New Resource Adequacy Tool (Gap Analysis) • Out-reach to engage WECC Groups PCC & RCSG regarding modeling needs • Host Vendors to share models and modeling techniques W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L 8 Questions or Comments W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L