An overview of European initiatives
relevant for FAIRMODE
M. Schaap and many others
Goal:
• To provide an overview of relevant ongoing initiatives in Europe
relevant to FAIRMODE
• Focus on:
• Objectives
• Modelling activities
2
FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
EURODELTA
COST 728 & 732
GEMS
Time scales of some
relevant projects
and activities
PROMOTE-2
COST ES0602 (Chemical Weather)
MEGAPOLI, CityZen
MACC
PASODOBLE
AQMEII
3
FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate
implementing the core monitoring and forecasting services
4
FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
The underlying computational approach
Input data
Model
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FAIRMODE
Weather,
constituents, emissions,
land and ocean conditions
Nov. 19, 2009
The underlying computational approach
Input data
Model
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FAIRMODE
Data assimilation
Nov. 19, 2009
The underlying computational approach
Input data
Model
Data assimilation
Model E
Model D
Model C
Model B
Model A
Forecast
Model G
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
Overall service structure (from MACC viewpoint)
Feedback
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
PASODOBLE - Goals
Develop and demonstrate user-driven downstream information services for the
regional and local air quality sector by combining space-based data, in-situ data
and models in 4 service lines:
9
•
Health community support
for people at risk, hospitals, pharmacies and doctors
•
Public forecasting and assessment support
for agencies, tourist industries and sport event organizers
•
Compliance monitoring support
on particulate matter for regional environmental agencies
•
Local forecast model evaluation support
for local authorities and city bodies
FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
PASODOBLE - Concept
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FAIRMODE
GMES Core Services Other Inputs
Air Quality Downstream Service Cluster
Health Community Support
Compliance Monitoring Sup.
Public Forecasting Support
Local Model Evaluation Sup.
Marketing and
Business Planning
Interface to Core and Inputs
Interface to Users
Users and Market
Nov. 19, 2009
Marketing cycle
2
User feedback cycle
1
Quality Management
User Needs
PASODOBLE users*
*at time of proposal preperation
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FAIRMODE
Map of Europe showing the
regions and cities covered by
PASODOBLE Downstream
Services for Committed Users
Nov. 19, 2009
COST 0602
 a forum for benchmarking approaches
and practices in data exchange and multimodel capabilities for chemical weather
forecasting
 Provide an easy interface to a wide
variety of web-based air quality forecasting
systems in Europe
 By selecting a point on the map, he or
she will automatically receive
 a list of the AQ modelling systems
 the domain, the research group of
each model
 a description of the service etc.
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FAIRMODE
A screenshot of the portal for
web-based air quality
forecasting systems in
Europe.
http://www.chemicalweather.
eu/Domains
Under construction!
Nov. 19, 2009
12
Figure: Illustration of
some of the services
available on the front
page of the portal.
http://www.
chemicalweather.eu/Domains
Please add your own
forecasting service !
An overview paper
on current chemical
weather forecast
systems is almost
finished
13
FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
Connections between Megacities,
Air Quality and Climate
• Some links shown have
already been considered by
previous studies and are
reasonably wellunderstood.
• However, a complete
quantitative picture of these
interactions is clearly
missing.
• Understanding and
quantifying these missing
links will be the focus of
MEGAPOLI.
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
https://wiki.met.no/cityzen/start
The CityZen project (2008-2011)
• Effect of Megacities on different spatial scales
• model studies and analyses of long-term observations
• development of emission scenarios
• Climate-chemistry coupling in and around Megacities
• Coordinated by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, involving 16 partners from
11 countries and 3 continents
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
Objectives of Cityzen & Megapoli
• Quantify and understand current air pollution in and around
selected megacities
• Development of tools to estimate interactions between
different spatial scales
• Estimate how megacities influence air quality and climate,
locally and globally
• Estimate how megacities are responding to climate change
• Estimate the impact of future emission change, including
mitigation options
• Provide technical underpinning of policy work
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
European scale top-down
Urban scale bottom up
Emissions
Total
Road Transport
Domain of selected 1st level Megacities
NRW – Rhine-Ruhr
Rhine-Ruhr
London
Paris
Po Valley
Local Megacity Emission inventories for Paris (Airparif), London,
Rhine-Ruhr, and Po Valley as well as global ( EGDAR team, JRC)
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
St-Petersburg
London
Moscow
Rhine-Ruhr
Paris
Po Valley
Istanbul
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
London
Nord Rhein
Westphalia
Paris
Istanbul
Po Valley
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FAIRMODE
Athens
Nov. 19, 2009
EU transport policy
Cities policy
Transphorm
Measures
(R)
EU measures
Cities measures
Health
Impact
(I)
ESCAPE
Cohort studies
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FAIRMODE
Transport Integrated
Assessment Cycle
Exposure
Exposure model
Emission models:
-road traffic;
-shipping;
-aviation;
Transport
(D)
AQ
(S)
Emissions
(P)
Dispersion models
-regional;
- point;
- line;
- street canyon;
Nov. 19, 2009
EURODELTA
• To benchmark the EMEP model
• Do regional air quality models produce a consistent response to
emission changes ?
• What is the range of modelled responses to emission changes ?
• What are confidence limits for the modelling used in policy ?
• Is a sectoral approach beneficial within IAM?
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
The JRC EURODELTA tool
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
0,02
0,02
0
0
-0,02
-0,04
-0,06
-0,08
0,02
0
-0,02
Relative change to SIA
Relative change to SIA
Relative change to SIA
Different models generally agree in their
responses to emission reductions – absolute
variability up to 50%
Germany, after 2020
-0,04
-0,06
-0,08
-0,1
-0,1
NOx
VOC
SOx
NOx
NH3
0
0
Relative change to SIA
Relative change to SIA
0,02
-0,02
-0,04
-0,06
-0,08
-0,1
SOx
NH3
-0,06
-0,08
-0,12
NOx
VOC
SOx
NH3
50 % reduction of
All models agree better in a
relative sense than in an
absolute sense:
-0,02
-0,04
SO4
NO3
NH4
-0,06
-0,08
-0,1
-0,12
-0,12
NOx
VOC
SOx
50 % reduction of
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VOC
50 % reduction of
50 % reduction of
0,02
-0,04
-0,1
-0,12
-0,12
-0,02
FAIRMODE
NH3
NOx
VOC
SOx
NH3
50 % reduction of
Nov. 19, 2009
COST 728
• to develop advanced conceptual and computational frameworks
to enhance significantly European capabilities in mesoscale
meteorological modelling for air pollution and dispersion
applications
Case study Stern et al. (2008)
Ongoing activities include an
investigation to the
differences in meteorological
input on the model results by
using independent
meteorological tower
observations
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of
Microscale Meteorological Models
Problem statement:
 The main objective of the Action was to improve and assure
the quality of micro-scale meteorological models that are
applied for predicting flow and transport processes in urban
or industrial environments.
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of
Microscale Meteorological Models
• Harmonised European views in the field of model evaluation
were established.
• Background and Justification Document to Support the
Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol
• Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol Document
• Best Practice Guideline for the CFD simulation of Flows in
the Urban Environment
• Model Evaluation Case Studies: Approach and Results
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
COST 732 Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths:
 Unique opportunity to combine knowledge available in the COST Countries
 Action was sufficiently focused
 Subject of the Action was timely
 Discussions within the group were controversial but fair
 The group was able to reach consensus
Weaknesses:
 National delegates not always qualified/motivated/leading
the field
 Additional support from EU / ESF had been requested but was refused.
 The workload for the active participants was finally overwhelming
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
Air Quality Model International Initiative
(AQMEII)
• Necessity was recognized to bridge between North American and European
regional scale model evaluation communities & practices
• 2008 first workshop organized at TNO and the constitution of the Steering
Committee
• May 2009: JRC-IES organizes the Stresa workshop. In depth analysis of the
four evaluation streams defined by AQMEII and starting the definition of the a
the first activity involving the two communities
• Activity supported by JRC-IES, US-EPA, Environment Canada, DG-RTD and
DG-ENV
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
4 model evaluation types
Model-predicted concentration and
deposition
Model Inputs: meteorology and emissions
Chemical transformation: gas, aerosol, clouds
Transport: advection and diffusion
Removal: dry and wet deposition
Operational Evaluation
Are we getting
the right answers?
Dynamic Evaluation
Can we identify
needed
improvements
for modeled
processes or
inputs?
Can the model capture changes related to
meteorological events or variations?
Can the model capture changes related to
emission reductions?
FAIRMODE
What are the overall temporal or spatial
prediction errors or biases?
Can we capture the
observed changes in
air quality?
Are we getting the
right answers for the
right (or wrong)
reasons?
Diagnostic Evaluation
Probabilistic Evaluation
Are model errors or biases caused by
model inputs or by modeled processes?
What is our confidence in the
model-predicted values?
Can we identify the specific modeled
process(es) responsible?
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How do the model predicted concentrations
compare to observed concentration data?
What is our
confidence in the
model predictions?
How do observed concentrations
compare within an uncertainty
range of model predictions?
Nov. 19, 2009
First phase (2010) : focus operational,
diagnostic and probabilistic evaluation
Time Line for cases for the year 2006
Invitation to participation including overall scope of
the activity and preliminary information on time
windows in focus and motivation
July 2009
X
Distribution of refined specification and commitment
by groups to take part to the activity
November 2009
X
Official start of the exercise
Distribution of the information and specification on
input data, requested output, etc
End January , 2010
Data submission
NA case: End of May
EU case: End of June
Discussion on the results and future steps at AQMEII
workshop: Probably within ITM 2010, Turin
End-September, 2010
Participation is opened: URL: http://aqmeii.jrc.ec.europa.eu
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
Overview of AQD applications & scale in on-going projects
Applications for the AQD
Compliance / Assessment
Data Assimilation
Fusion
Mitigation & Planning
Local-Hot spot
(dx ~ m)
Urban/Agglom
(dx ~ 1- 5 km)
Regional
(dx ~ 10 – 50 km)
EURODELTA
AQMEII
COST 602
CITYZEN
MEGAPOLI
MACC
PASODOBLE
MEGAPOLI
EC4MACS
TRANSPHORM
TRANSPHORM
EURODELTA
CITYZEN
Emission scenarios
Source Apportionment
PASODOBLE
MEGAPOLI
TRANSPHORM
Public information
AQ near real time forecast
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FAIRMODE
PASODOBLE
MACC
COST 602 Chemical Weather
Nov. 19, 2009
Types of Evaluation
Type of Evaluation
Operational
Routine statistics by
one-to-one pairing
Diagnostic
“process impact – why?”
Dynamic -Response to Δ
Meteo
Emissions
Probabilistic
“Ensembles”
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FAIRMODE
Local-Hot spot
(dx ~ m)
Urban/Agglom
(dx ~ 1- 5 km)
TRANSPHORM
COST 602
Regional
(dx ~ 10 – 50 km)
EURODELTA
AQMEII
CITYZEN
MEGAPOLI
MACC
PASODOBLE
EC4MACS
AQMEII
EURODELTA
CITYZEN
COST 728
MEGAPOLI
CITYZEN
EURODELTA
MEGAPOLI
AQMEII
CITYZEN
MACC
COST Chemical Weather
Nov. 19, 2009
EURODELTA
Conclusions
• There is a large experience on the regional scale, followed by the
hotspot scale.
• Model evaluation exercises and comparisons on the city scale
have attracted less attention
• A large experience is present on model evaluation for
• Compliance / Assessment
• Source Apportionment (Natural components)
• Public information, i.e. forecasting
• Limited experience is present on model evaluation for
• Mitigation & Planning
• Many initiatives were not “open” and not continuous, FAIRMODE
should be
• FAIRMODE can draw from a large pool of expertise
34
FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009
Other relevant projects
• FP6-Air4EU: Review of best practices on all scales
• Monitoring
• Modelling
• Data assimilation
•
•
•
•
CityDelta
EC4MACS
FP6-GEOMON
FP7-ENERGEO
• And probably many more …
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FAIRMODE
Nov. 19, 2009