Issues and counter-measures related to
the status of the power supply
in SAARC countries
March 6, 2013
Professor Shigeru Sudo
Department of Business Management
Teikyo Heisei University
Three topics in the presentation
Ⅰ. The actual state of the power industry in India
Ⅱ. The problems being faced by SAARC countries
Ⅲ. The counter-measures which must be taken
in SAARC countries.
Ⅰ. Power industry in India
Electric power conditions in India may be summarized in the following;
(1) While power demand has been on the increase, power supply is unable to
catch up with it.
(2) Apart from technical losses in the process of power transmission and
distribution, power theft is also a major loss factor.
(3) Due to high economic/population growth rate, India’s primary energy
consumption is expected to grow by 3.9% annually from 0.524 billion tons (coal
equivalent) in 2010 to 1.376 billion (coal equivalent) in 2035.
(4) As of January 2012, 20 nuclear power reactors with a total power capacity of
4.78 million kW are in operation. The Indian Government has been
implementing active plans to construct nuclear power stations. It is intending to
expand plant capacity by 7.9 times from 4.10 million kW in 2010 to 32.40 million
kW in 2030.
Power Generation & Consumption in
SAARC countries
Ⅱ．Problems being faced by India in promoting
its nuclear power plan
1. An important element in its plan is the targeted
capacity of 32.40 million kW to be achieved by 2030.
2. Views of Japanese experts concerned are varied.
However, their majority is of the view that two
conditions must be met in order for this target to be
achieved.
3. These two conditions relate firstly to probability of
the eventual application of ｔhe Civil Liability for
Nuclear Damage Act (2010) and secondly to the issue
of how to ensure public acceptance.
Ⅲ．Identification of problems and
counter-measures to deal with them
Possible impacts on the South Asian economy in the event that India’s
nuclear power generation plan may not proceed as planned.
1. Since last year the situation has been continuing where the level of
power supply remains below the level of peak-time power demand.
2. Efforts on the part of certain States to procure electricity at levels higher
than predetermined from other States have aggravated the spread of
domino-like adverse effects.
3. The lack of sufficient power generation capacity comes from the fact that
investment in power plant construction does not catch up with rapidly
expanding power demand.
Basic framework of the countermeasures
1. To promote the development of alternative power sources concurrently and
in parallel with nuclear power development in India. In this connection, I
would like to count upon Indian participants for further detailed comments.
However, I myself believe that coal-fired thermal power generation could
play the most important role in this respect.
2.To promote intra-regional pooling arrangements
To what extent shall intra-regional pooling arrangements be considered to
be possible? According to a macro (country-by-country basis) analysis,
rates of reserve in power supplies in each country seem not to be high.
However, more detailed studies will be warranted to find what sort of overall
picture can be drawn by way of a more detailed region-by-region analysis.
3. Possibility of extra-regional cooperative arrangements
The third point for consideration is to work out extra-regional cooperative
arrangements as an exponential measure of intra-regional arrangements.
Electric Power Generation by Energy
Source in Japan
7.5
14.4
29.3
39.5
28.6
10.7
Source: “Federation of Electric Power Companies”
Utilization Ratio of Nuclear Power Plant
67.3%
23.7％
Source: “Federation of Electric Power Companies”
V. Relating basic questions
Question No1: Most important matter in keeping supply and demand balance
“Do you think that the most important matter in overcoming power shortages
is the expansion of generation capacity?” Or “Do you think that what is the
most important is power-pooling arrangements with neighboring countries?”
Question No.2: The possibility of regional cooperation
“Do you have any concrete plan for promoting power pooling
arrangements? ”
“Do you have any plan for making more effective use of the existing
transmission systems within the region?”
Question No.3 : Regional cooperation:
“Is there any example of regional cooperation in the field of financial
cooperation? ”
Proposed objectives of CASA1000
●The objective of the Project is to promote
clean hydroelectricity exports from Tajikistan
and the Kyrgyz Republic to Afghanistan and
Pakistan.
●The project outcome will be measured by the
amount of electricity (in Gigawatt-hours)
exported via the transmission system to be
constructed under the Project.
Source: World Bank “PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT CONCEPT STAGE Report No.70560 “
Preliminary description of CASA1000
The CASA-1000 Project would comprise of:
(a) around 750 km High Voltage Direct Current (DC)
transmission system between Tajikistan and
Pakistan via Afghanistan;
(b) a DC to Alternate Current (AC) converter station in Kabul
to supply Kabul area;
(c) an AC transmission link between the Kyrgyz Republic and
Tajikistan to supply the Kyrgyz electricity to South Asia via
Tajikistan;
(d) the concomitant institutional and legal framework to
enable such electricity trade.
Tentative financing source: To be determined
Approximately 950 US$ million
Source: World Bank “PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT CONCEPT STAGE Report No.70560 “