Overview of Recent Public Opinion
in Anne Arundel County
By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College
October 25, 2011
www2.aacc.edu/csli
Overview of Survey Process
•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel
Community College
•Operating since 1978
•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged
learning, community outreach
• Main activity – public interest surveys
oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers
combined with computer generated numbers
oTypical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers
o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth,
taxes/spending, schools…
•
since 1978
• Last survey – Oct. 10-13, 2011 – focus of most of this presentation
• 487completed surveys
• Press releases available online.
www2.aacc.edu/csli
Polling Results for AA County
Right/Wrong Direction - Anne Arundel County
70
66
62
60
60
58
57
61
62
58
58
55
54
53
51
50
57
55
51
52
51
50
52
52
52
49
47
50
47
40
34
27
20
33
31
30
23
20
19
25
24
26
23
20
17
15
14
19
13
27
24
21
18
19
15
25
29
15
10
18
16
29
26
18
20
32
32
31
28
25
27
21
16
17
27
28
21
20
28
28
23
22
17
12
0
Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa Sp Fa
'99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11
Wrong
Unsure
Right
22
AA County Polling Results:
Most Important Problem - Fall '06 to Fall '11
50
48
48
45
40
38
36
35
36
35
33
30
Economy
25
23
Growth
21
20
17
Education
15
10
11
16
12
9
7
5
12
9
8
8
Crime
4
Transportation
0
'06
'07
'07
'08
‘08
'09
‘09
‘10
‘10
‘11
‘11
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Economy
Taxes – too high
Growth
Education
Transportation
Crime / drugs
5
AA County Polling Results: Rate the Economy
Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” since March 2009
60
50
46
48
44 45
49 48
40
27
30
32
30 31
35
33
20
11 11 11 11
10
9
5
0
S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11
Anne Arundel County
Maryland
USA
Economy Excellent or Good:
AA County vs. USA – County looks around 35% better
General economic conditions – % saying ‘applies’
80
75
71
70
70
60
60
60
56
52
51
51
50
46 47
47
44
40
35
30 29
30
24 24
19
20
35
33 32 34
32
21
21 20
15
11
10
6
4
6
8 7 7 9
8
0
Facing the possibility of
unemployment
Significant losses in your
stock or retirement accounts
S '08
F '08
S '09
Facing the possibility of
house foreclosure or loss
F '09
S '10
Delay in making a major
Health care insurance is
purchase such as a home or unavailable, too expensive
car
or inadequate
F '10
S '11
F '11
Economic costs, inflation: % saying ‘applies’
70
63
59
59
60
56
63
61
55 55
58
59 59
63
60
58
56 56
53
50
50
46
44
42
41
40
43
39
40
32
30
30
24
21
21
20
21
17
15
11
12
14
13
10
11
10
0
Unable to find affordable
housing
Wages or salaries are not
rising as fast as the cost of
living
S '08
F '08
Hard to afford the cost of
transportation
S '09
F '09
S '10
Hard to afford the cost of Taxes are too high in relation
utilities such as electricity or to government services
gas
provided
F '10
S '11
F '11
Economic conditions: Found job, got income increase
County residents vs. AACC students
Influences on Perceptions of Economic Conditions
Percentage saying “Excellent/Good” by Category vs. Overall Percentage
*Income
*Increase in income lately
*Possibility of losing job
*Found job lately
Increased income improves outcomes…more than
finding a job
Percentage citing a condition applies vs. average
Higher income=fewer economic problems
Percentage citing a condition applies vs. average
6
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
0
Wages
Unemp
Acct losses Lose house
Afford
house
Cost Trans Cost Util.
Delay
Health
Taxes
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-6
Low income
High income
-6
-8
Lower income=0 to $75k; higher income=more than $75k
Consumer confidence: County vs. students
60
54
54
50
50
42
44
44
40
37
36
34
36
33
30
28 29
30
25
27
25
20
20
20
22
20
Same
Same
Same
Same
13
11
10
Better
Worse
Worse
Worse
Better
Worse
Better
Better 5
0
Economic growth
Better County
Unemployment
Better Students
Same County
Inflation
Same Students
Your personal financial
situation
Worse County
Worse Students
Inflation as key indicator
of overall pessimism…
Inflation forecast =>
Better
Same
Worse
Economic growth
12
16
40
Unemployment
15
21
47
2
14
32
Those saying worse regarding…
Your personal financial situation
Perceptions of MD and AAC dealing with economic
downturn: County vs. students
57
60
53
50
46
46
40
36
32
30
29
25
20
Same
10
Better
16
14
11
7
Worse
7
Same
10
7
Better
2
Unsure
Worse
Unsure
0
State of Maryland
Anne Arundel County
Better County
Better Students
Same County
Same Students
Worse County
Worse Students
Unsure County
Unsure Students
Biggest Economic Challenge Facing the County –
Items Mentioned in 2005 and 2011
Spring 2011
Condition
Budget and jobs rise Fall
in importance
2005
Balancing the county budget (less spending, more
revenues)
Providing enough jobs
Providing enough skills/training or otherwise improving
education/schools
Managing growth/development
Having enough infrastructure, roads, transportation
All other answers
Total
Spring
2011
0
18
8
11
16
12
27
3
51
100
8
7
39
100
Perceptions of Decreases in Government Services
Spring 2011
Most don’t see an impact
from govt. belt-tightening
Services mentioned
Answer
Yes
No
Don’t know,
no answer
Total
Percentage
26
70
5
101
Cases
Percentage
Roads
39
24
Schools/teachers
31
19
Library
24
15
College tuition
12
7
Fire
10
6
Seniors services
Jobs/furloughs/pay
cuts
Police
10
6
9
6
Staffing
7
4
Child services
6
4
MVA
3
2
Mental health
2
1
163
100
Total
10
6
State and County Issues
Issue
Spring 2011
Support
Oppose
Unsure
Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving
86
13
1
Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City
80
10
10
Increasing the alcohol tax
Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes
68
65
29
29
3
7
Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes
64
32
3
Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights
59
41
4
Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland
47
46
7
Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law
43
50
8
Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with
public safety unions
35
42
23
Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college
33
63
4
Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education
32
66
2
Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers
28
65
7
Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750
bonus
25
59
16
Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid
cuts in essential services
25
68
7
17
18
80
3
Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund
Support for Proposals meant to Replenish
Maryland’s Transportation Trust Fund
Fall 2011
Proposal
Increase the toll on the Bay Bridge from
$2.50 to $4.00
Create a new tax on ownership of vehicles
Increase the state’s property tax, adding $63
million to the fund
Increase the corporate income tax rate by
one percent, adding $100 million to the fund
Support Oppose
Unsure/
NA
33
64
4
10
11
86
86
4
57
39
4
3
Watched, listened or read about…
Spring 2011
Yes
No
Total
28
Unsure
/N.A.
1
President Obama’s state of the union speech?
72
Governor O’Malley’s inaugural speech or his
state of the state speech
41
58
1
100
Watched County Council hearings being
broadcast on local cable stations anytime
over the last year?
19
80
1
100
101
Estimations
of Federal Budget
51% estimated
Estimates
Under $1 billion
$1 billion to $500
billion
$501 to $999 billion
$1-1.999 trillion
$2-2.99 trillion
$3-4.99 trillion
$5-6 trillion
Over $6 trillion
Total
22%
%
4
17
4
21
10
22
6
17
101
Estimations of
State Budget
31% estimated
Estimates
%
Under $1 billion
$1-5.99 billion
$6 to $10.99
billion
$11-15.99 billion
$16-20.99 billion
$21-30.99 billion
$31-40 billion
Over $40 billion
Total
30
26
7
13%
Spring 2011
4
5
3
1
24
100
Estimations of
County Budget
31% estimated
Estimates
Under $5 million
$5-50 million
$51 to $100
million
$101-350 million
$351-650 million
$651-999 million
$1-1.99 billion
$2-2.99 billion
$4-6.99 billion
Over $7 billion
Total
17%
%
22
18
10
8
9
7
14
3
4
6
100
Presidential job approval
70
61
60
53
54
50
47
40
47
43
42
39
37
34
33
30
47
35
32
40
37
30
28
25
24
20
10
0
Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '11
CSLI
Gallup
Obama’s Job Approval by Party Registration
Trust in Political Parties – Spring 2009 to Fall 2011
45
40
42
37
35
30
33
31
30
28
27
25
20
37
34
34
32
29
32
31
30
21
20
15
10
8
6
5
8
6
7
4
0
Spring
Fall
2009
Spring
Fall
2010
Democrats
Republicans
Spring
Fall
2011
Neither
No opinion