MOLDOVA
2009 NATIONAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT
(forthcoming)
Moldova’s exposure and sensitivity to climate
variability and change
(with a focus on agricultural sector)
Roman Corobov, Key Expert on Climate Change
Nadja Vetters, UNPD Moldova
Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop on Reducing
Vulnerability to Climate Change in Moldovan Agricultural Systems –
Operationalizing the Climate Change Agenda
Chisinau, 28 October 2009
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
UNDP’s Strategy Plan 2008-2011 adopted as programming core:
‘the promotion of adaptation to climate change’
UNDP’s Climate Change Strategy’s GOAL has 4 pillars:
1
Support the design of integrated
climate change policies,
strategies and quantified actions
plans
3
Attract and drive direct private
and public investment towards
lower carbon technologies and
sustainable land use practices
National Human Development Report on Climate Change
2
Promote early adaptation actions
and long-term adaptive capacity
of developing countries
4
Integrate climate change into UN
and UNDP development
assistance at the global, regional
and national levels
Advisory Board Meeting, Friday 4 September 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT (1)
•
•
•
•
Human Development challenge
Low income-countries particularly vulnerable
Impacts can be observed already today
Moldova
– High exposure to natural hazards
– High vulnerability particularly in rural areas
• Requires action by all stakeholders and
across all sectors
National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Advisory Board Meeting, Friday 4 September 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT (2)
• NHDR is a starting point
• Trigger the discussion and bring the topic on
the national agenda
• Human Development perspective at the
center of the analysis
Launch of the report: December 2009 (tbd)
Findings to be considered preliminary
National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Advisory Board Meeting, Friday 4 September 2009
THE PRESENTATION IS AIMED AT SHOWING
• We already live in new climate
• To adapt to global warming is impossible
without comprehensive knowledge about
future regional climate
• Climate change projections are the ensemble
of climatic variables and indexes
• Some approaches to assess future
agroclimate and its consequences for
Moldova agriculture
National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Advisory Board Meeting, Friday 4 September 2009
Mean air temperature,
Mean
temperature,СС
о
0
Precipitation sum,
Precipitation
sum,mm
mm
Slope1 = +0.0075, p1 = 0.487
Slope2 = +0.0395, p2 = 0.369
-0.5
-1.0
Slope1 = +0.3301, p1 = 0.075
Slope2 = +0.2827, p2 = 0.812
Winter
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
Chisinau’s air
temperature and
precipitation trends
for
1887-1980 and
1981-2007 periods
of observation
12.5
12.0
11.5
Slope1 = -0.0926, p1 = 0.613
Slope2 = +0.3199, p2 = 0.825
Slope1 = +0.0001, p1 = 0.991
Slope2 = +0.0605, p2 = 0.094
11.0
10.5
Spring
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
Slope1 = +0.5875, p1 = 0.125
Slope2 = -1.3187, p2 = 0.513
Slope1 = +0.0018, p1 = 0.687
Slope2 = +0.0958, p2 = 0.000
Summer
Slope1 = +0.7437, p1 = 0.069
Slope2 = +2.5940, p2 = 0.174
Slope1 = +0.0046, p1 = 0.399
Slope2 = +0.0372, p2 = 0.174
Autumn
1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
Slope – coefficient of trend
(change per year, С)
p-value – significance of change
Slope1 = +1.8778, p1 = 0.040
Slope2 = +1.8779, p2 = 0.478
Slope1 = +0.0035, p1 = 0.237
Slope2 = +0.0583, p2 = 0.041
Annual
1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
Years
Moldova National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Years
Environment & Energy COP meeting, 22 September 2009
Comparison of means (x) and SD (σ) of mean temperature
and precipitation for 1887-1980 (1) and 1981-2007 (2)
periods of observations
Air temperature, С
Season
Mean values
Standard deviations
x1
x2
P-value
σ1
σ2
P-value
Winter
-2.15
-1.12
0.013
2.05
1.74
0.342
Spring
9.39
10.05
0.041
1.35
1.46
0.565
Summer
20.47
21.06
0.022
1.07
1.15
0.575
Autumn
9.98
10.24
0.319
1.41
1.09
0.144
Year
9.4
10.1
0.003
0.78
0.95
0.195
Precipitation, mm
Winter
102
100
0.859
46.8
46.7
0.973
Spring
123
124
0.963
44.5
57.0
0.101
Summer
186
189
0.869
90.5
79.6
0.465
Autumn
114
137
0.109
57.5
76.4
0.062
Year
523
549
0.361
130.3
104.4
0.210
Moldova National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Environment & Energy COP meeting, 22 September 2009
Conceptual model for climate change impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation
Source: Isoard, Grothmann
and Zebisch, 2008
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Regional climate vs.
global climate
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Global projections of temperature changes
for the 21st century as to 1980-1999 period
2010 - 2039
2070 - 2099
For Moldova: 1-st time horizon – 1.5-2.0 oC; 2-d time horizon – 4.0-5.0 oC
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Necessity in the study of regional climate
1
1961-1990
0.8
0.6
Global
Nothern hemisphere
o
Temperature anomaly, C
Chisinau
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Global
N. Hemisphere
r
0.405
0.457
r2
16.4
20.1
Moldova National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Environment & Energy COP meeting, 22 September 2009
Initial parameters for climate change modeling
Climate change horizons:
2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099
Emission scenarios:
SRES A2 and B2 emission
The baseline period:
1961-1990
General Circulation Models used
HadCM3
CGCM2
CSIROMk2
ECHAM5
GFDL-R30
CCSR-NIES
The UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
The Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organization
Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology
US Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory
Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for
Environmental Studies
Moldova National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Environment & Energy COP meeting, 22 September 2009
Presenting the climate change
modeling results



Country-scale projections – climate
change information for a country on the
whole;
Local projections – the expected changes
in any place over the territory;
User-oriented projections – information
satisfying the demands of particular
sectoral research.
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Projections of annual mean air temperature
and precipitation changes, averaged by six
GCMs as to 1961-1990 climate
Time
slice
Temperature, oC
Precipitation, mm
SRES A2
SRES B2
SRES A2
SRES B2
2010-2039
1.7
2.0
-9
-17
2040-2069
3.4
3.2
-38
-11
2070-2099
5.4
4.1
-64
-23
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Projections of seasonal T and P relative
changes (%) against baseline climate
Emissi
on
Season
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Air temperature
Precipitation
2020s
2050s
2080s
2020s
2050s
2080s
A2
1.9
4.0
5.0
7.5
11.4
10.4
B2
2.2
3.5
4.4
8.5
13.6
15.5
A2
13.2
26.8
43.2
4.4
6.0
5.5
B2
18.6
25.3
32.7
6.4
12.3
11.6
A2
9.3
19.7
32.9
-7.8
-19.3
-30.2
B2
11.8
18.3
23.8
-13.2
-16.7
-22.6
A2
17.8
34.3
55.4
-6.1
-16.0
-17.6
B2
19.3
34.0
42.3
-6.2
-6.1
-6.8
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Spatial distribution of likely
air temperatures
SRES A2
SRES B2
Briceni
Briceni
Briceni
Balti
Balti
Balti
Chisinau
2010-2039
Chisinau
Chisinau
1961-1990
Cahul
Cahul
Mean air
temperature,
Celsius Degree
15
Cahul
Briceni
Briceni
Balti
Balti
14.5
14
2040-2069
Chisinau
Chisinau
13.5
13
12.5
Cahul
Cahul
12
Briceni
Briceni
11.5
11
Balti
Balti
10.5
10
Chisinau
9.5
Chisinau
2070-2099
9
8.5
8
Cahul
Cahul
7.5
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Projections of absolute (Abs) and relative
(%) changes in humidity conditions
Time horizon and emission scenario
Parameter
2010-2039
A2
2040-2069
B2
A2
2070-2099
B2
A2
B2
Annual
Potential
evaporation
Abs, mm
126
158
258
238
420
307
%
16.0
20.1
32.6
30.2
53.1
38.9
Aridity
Index
Abs, mm
-0.11
-0.14
-0.22
-0.18
-0.30
-0.22
%
-15.8
-19.9
-30.3
-25.3
-42.7
-31.5
Vegetation period
Potential
evaporation
Abs, mm
105
135
221
205
366
266
%
15.3
19.7
32.2
29.9
53.3
38.8
Aridity
Index
Abs, mm
-0.10
-0.12
-0.19
-0.16
-0.27
-0.20
%
-17.4
-22.0
-33.8
-28.9
-48.2
-37.1
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Possible change of the aridity of Moldova
territory in new climatic conditions
1961-1990
2010-2039
Baseline
SRES A2 SRES B2
2040-2069
2070-2099
SRES A2 SRES B2 SRES A2 SRES B2
0
0,1
Aridity Index
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
Aridity Zones:
< 0,03 - Hyperarid zone
0,50-0,65 - Dry subhumid zone
0,03-0,20 - Arid zone
0,65-0,75 - Wet subhumid zone
0,75-1,00 - Insufficiently wet zone
0,20-0,50 - Semiarid zone
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
SRES A2
SRES B2
50
50
40
40
30
30
2010-2039
20
10
20
10
0
0
-10
-10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
50
50
40
40
30
30
2040-2069
20
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
20
10
0
0
-10
-10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
Seasonal
dynamic of
the likely
aridization
of Moldova
climate in
21th century
50
40
30
20
2070-2099
10
0
-10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
Semiarid period
Arid period
8
9 10 11 12
Month
Mean air temperature, oC
Precipitation/2, mm
Precipitation/3, mm
Note: The half and third precipitation curves under the temperature one shows
respectively the duration and intensity of dry and semiarid periods.
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Baseline and likely distribution of the Index of
Climate Biological Effectivity (ICBE) by 2010–2039
Note: ICBE = HC * T>10°C, where CH – Coefficient of Humidity; T>10°C – sum of air temperatures >10°C; Orange zone – ecological optimum;
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Likely changes in
extreme temperatures
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Differences of summer Tmax between 2071-2100
and baseline climate (HIRHAM projections)
Frequency of days with temperatures above 30°C, can
reach 60-90 days against 10-30 before the 1980s.
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Mean values and different probabilities of observed
and projected summer temperatures (Chisinau)
Mean maximal
Period
Range
Mean
Max
Absolute maximal
Percentile, %
90
95
99
Range
Mean
Max
Percentile
90
95
99
1961-1990 25.6 28.1 27.1 27.6 28.4 32.0 29.0 33.9 34.4 35.5
1981-2008 26.4 30.2 28.2 28.6 29.6 32.9 29.2 35.3 36.0 37.2
2010-2039 28.0
29.8 30.3 31.2 34.7
37.0 37.7 40.0
2040-2069 29.9
31.7 32.2 33.1 36.8
39.2 39.8 41.1
2070-2099 32.0
33.8 34.3 35.2 39.1
41.5 42.2 43.4
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Climate change
impacts
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Inevitability of adverse
consequences
1. New opportunities that can appear in some
places and some sectors are much less than
general worldwide negative effects over a
longer period.
2. The general adverse consequences include
an increased risk to loss biodiversity, threats to
human health, damage to economic sectors
such as energy, forestry, or agriculture, etc.
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Key future agriculture impacts








While moderate warming benefits crop and pasture yields in
mid- to high-latitude regions, even slight warming decreases
yields in dry regions
Increases in frequency of climate extremes may lower crop
yields beyond the impacts of mean climate change
Impacts on weed and insect pests
Expected changes in irrigation water requirements
Changes in pastures and forage quality
Reduction in productivity and potential life-threatening to
livestock due thermal stresses; the increased droughts severity
may lead to livestock loss
Increase of food deficit, with increased dependence of most
developing and poor countries on food import
Social and economic impacts, in particular, increases in the
number of people at risk of hunger
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Sensitivity of cereal yields to
temperature change: planetary estimations
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Cereal prices (% of baseline) vs.
global mean temperature change
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Some approaches to
estimations of climate
change impacts on
agriculture
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Levels
• CO2
• Solar
Radiation
• Air
Organelle
Agroclimate
Change
Cell
Tissue
Temperature
Organ
Response
• Precipitation
• Humidity
• Other
Factors
Individual Plant
Community/Field
Assessment
Factors under change
of the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural
plants by their physiological and biophysical response
Sensitivity
Ecosystem
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Some projections of
changes in Moldova’s
agroclimate
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Likely heat supply change under
two SRES emission scenarios
Growing
season
parameters
Time horizon and emission scenario
19611990
2010 - 2039
2040 - 2069
2070 - 2099
A2
A2
B2
A2
B2
B2
Vegetation period (T > 5 oC)
Beginning
82
75
72
68
68
60
64
End
314
321
322
327
327
335
330
Duration, days
232
249
253
264
264
283
272
Degree-days, ºC
3533
3986
4100
4465
4416
5054
4659
Active vegetation period (T > 10 oC)
Beginning
106
101
97
94
93
87
91
End
290
297
297
304
303
313
307
Duration, days
184
196
201
210
209
225
215
Degree-days, ºC
3174
3592
3717
4056
4018
4628
4246
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Sum of active temperatures (T > 10 oC),
expected in Moldova by the 2020s in
comparison with the baseline period
Baseline
1961-1990
Celsius
Degree
SRES A2
2010-2039
Briceni
SRES B2
2010-2039
Briceni
Briceni
4000
3900
Balti
Balti
Balti
3800
3700
3600
3500
Chisinau
Chisinau
Chisinau
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
Cahul
Cahul
Cahul
2800
2700
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Baseline and projected future distribution of
Selianinov Hydrothermal Coefficient
SRES B2
SRES A2
Briceni
Briceni
Balti
Briceni
Balti
Chisinau
Balti
2010-2039
Chisinau
Chisinau
1961-1990
Cahul
Cahul
Cahul
Briceni
Briceni
Balti
1.6 Excess wet zone
1.5
Balti
Chisinau
Chisinau
2040-2069
Suffiently wet zone
1.4
Cahul
Cahul
1.3
1.2
1.1
Briceni
Briceni
Unsufficiently wet zone
Balti
Balti
1
0.9
0.8
Chisinau
Arid zone
Chisinau
2070-2099
0.7
0.6 Hyperarid zone
Cahul
Cahul
0.5
Note: HTC = 0.1 Pwp / T>10°C, where: Pwp – precipitation sum of warm period; T>10°C – sum of air
temperatures >10°C
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
The cultures, recommended for
assessment
 Summer (maize)
 Annual (winter wheat)
 Perennial (grapevine)
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Projections of cereals yield change
Yield Response (%)
(no adaptation & without CO2 fertilization)
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
Wheat
Corn
2010-2039
Wheat
Corn
2040-2069
SRES А2
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Wheat
Corn
2070-2099
SRES В2
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Projections of cereals yields change in case of
no adaptation actions with CO2 fertilization
Yield Response (%)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Wheat
Corn
2010-2039
Wheat
Corn
2040-2069
SRES А2
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Wheat
Corn
2070-2099
SRES В2
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Prognosis of grape yield (left)
and sugar content (right) changes
centner/ha
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
%
Table
Sparkling
2010-2039
Table
Sparkling
2040-2069
SRES A2
SRES B2
Table
Sparkling
2070-2099
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-1,2
-1,4
-1,6
Table
Sparkling
2010-2039
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Table
Sparkling
2040-2069
Table
Sparkling
2070-2099
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Number, productivity and variability (Cv) of
the vineyards, used in the research
Table wine
cultivars
N
Yield
Sugariness
c/ha
Cv
%
Cv, %
Sparkling
wine cultivars
Yield
Sugariness
N
c/ha
Cv
%
Cv, %
Feteasca
16
75.9
8.1
17.4
4.0
Chardonnay
14
66.5
4.79
17.8
4.7
Muscat
4
67.8
4.1
17.6
3.8
Pinot
22
68.6
5.48
17.9
4.4
Traminer
5
68.1
6.2
17.7
4.1
Riesling
6
69.2
9.03
17.6
4.7
Rkatsiteli
41
72.6
6.8
17.5
4.2
Sauvignon
10
76.6
9.97
17.6
4.4
Cabernet
10
71.8
6.3
17.4
4.4
Merlot
8
72.3
7.5
17.5
4.3
Aligote
44
70.8
6.2
17.4
4.0
Total
128
71.3
6.3
17.5
4.0
Total
52
70.2
7.23
17.7
4.5
Moldova 2009 National Human Development Report on Climate Change
World Bank Workshop, 28 October 2009
Thank you!
Moldova National Human Development Report on Climate Change
Environment & Energy COP meeting, 22 September 2009