IAM – ILN
Regional Meeting
Belfast, Northern Ireland
May 18 – 20, 2015
IAM and the
USA & Global Outlook
Looking IN – Looking OUT
Terry Head – President
International Association of Movers
May 19, 2015
Who is IAM?
• The largest international trade association & advocacy
group for household goods forwarders, movers, logistics
& service provider
• Membership includes 2,300+ companies & individuals in
more than 180 countries and territories
• Founded in 1962 to represent the interests of military
TSPs; scope broadened to include commercial business
in 1970s
• Annual Meeting is world’s biggest & best networking
opportunity for business development in moving industry
IAM & It’s Affiliates
IAM MEMBERSHIP – May 15, 2015
• Core:
USA – 328
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1788
Overseas - 1460
Governing:
117 (106 in USA)
Supplier:
70
IAM -YP:
329
Student Members: 6
Industry Veterans: 20
Total:
2,330 Members in 180 Countries
• 190 Members recently dropped
68 Voluntarily – 122 for Non-payment of Dues
2015 IAM 53rd Annual Meeting & Expo
October 18 – 21
Manchester Grand Hyatt Hotel
San Diego, California
Hotel Reservations Now Open
Attendee Registrations and
Exhibits/Sponsorship Sales
Open Late May
Future
IAM Annual Meetings
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2016 – New Orleans, Louisiana
2017 – Long Beach, California
2018 – Washington, DC
2019 – Still to be determined
2020 – San Diego, California
2021 – Orlando, Florida
U.S. & Global Outlook
Let’s First Take - A Look Back
Looking BACK:
One of the WORST
U.S. Winters on Record
• East Coast – Mid-Atlantic & North East
• Closed Roads – Impaired Air/Rail Service
• Draught Continues on the West Coast
Looking BACK:
U.S. West Coast
Port Congestion
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Negotiation of New Labor Contracts
Increased Seasonal Goods Demand
Lack of available Chassis
Clogged Transportation Networks
Continues to impact Cargo Flows - Imports
Looking BACK:
Over – the – Road Capacity
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Constantly Evolving/Changing Regulations
EOBRs, CARB, Hours of Service, CSA
The Driver “Shortage”
HHG – Containers & Alternative Transportation
Increasing ‘e-Commerce’ Activity
Further Economic (Freight) Growth will strain
capacity – Crumbling USA Infrastructure
Looking Ahead
Positives and Negatives on
U.S. and Global Economies,
Trade, Mobility
& the HHG Industry
Looking AHEAD:
• Reduced Fuel & Energy Prices
• OPEC’s “Game of Chicken”
• How Much? How Long?
2013 - $98 a barrel - 2014 - $59 average
Dec. 2015 predicted = $85 a barrel
• U.S. Economy – Where is it headed?
More Hiring – Lower Unemployment – Low Inflation Rate
Looking Ahead:
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the Positives
Stronger U.S. Dollar
More Consumer Spending (up 3.3% in 2015)
Increased Housing Investments
Increased U.S. Government Spending
COD & National Account Business
Returning
• Drawdown in US Military – Short term gains
Looking Ahead:
the Negatives
• US Federal Reserve – Increased Interest
Rates – When? How Fast? How Much?
• U.S. Stock Market Slowdown / Pullback?
• Stronger U.S. Dollar
• Widening US Trade Deficit
• Negative impact on USA Manufacturing
Global Economic Outlook
• Rough Seas Ahead – But Don’t Abandon Ship, Yet!
• 2014 Global Growth (2.6%) less than anticipated or
predicted
• 2015 Growth expected to be slightly higher at 3.0%
• Economies sputtering in Euro Zone and Japan
• China – Undergoing carefully “managed slowdown”
• USA – Good, but not Great
Factors Driving Global Outlook:
• Soft Commodity Prices – Impacts Shipping Rates
• US Economic & Corporate Taxation Policies
• Persistent low interest rates
Both drive increased M&A (Moving) activity
• Increasingly divergent monetary policies – major
economies
• Sharp decline in oil prices
Helps offset headwinds, but hurts oil exporting
countries
M & A Generates Moves
 Merger & Acquisition activity becoming major reason
why companies relocate staff
 63% of USA companies will initiate at least one
acquisition or merger in 2015 – 36% as Divestiture
 Industries expecting highest number of M&A activity:
Technology, Media, Telecommunications, Health Care, Life Sciences,
Pharmaceuticals, Financial Services and Energy
 Regions where M&A activity is likely:
USA 56%, Western Europe 29%, China 29%, N. America 27%
and Asia (excluding China) 15%
Source: KPMG 2015 M&A Outlook Survey
Mobility Trends in the USA
Home Sales drive Domestic Moving
U.S. Mobility Trends
Why do People Move?
• Humans – Naturally Migratory
Every Year – One in Nine Americans Move
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Career Opportunities
Closer to Family
Lure of a Climate
Cheaper Cost-of-Living
Atlas International
North America Migration Study
U.S. Mobility Trends
People No Longer “Age in Place”
• By 2040, 80 Million Americans will be 65+
years
• Double the number in 2010
• Reasons for Moving: Affordable healthcare,
housing, transportation, cost-of-living, crime
rate, employment opportunities for older
workers, intellectual stimulation, weather
Ten Best Job Markets in the USA Today
1. Salt Lake City, Utah
2. Omaha, Nebraska
3. Madison,
Wisconsin
4. Minneapolis – St.
Paul, Minnesota
5. Des Moines, Iowa
6. Austin, Texas
7. Baton Rouge,
Louisiana
8. Springfield, Missouri
9. Irvine, California
10.New Orleans,
Louisiana
Mobility Trends Around the World
International Trade
drives
International Moving
Stronger U.S. Dollar
• Currency Swings – “Get-out-of-jail-free” excuse
• USA = Island of relative strength in the global
economy
• Drawing foreign cash into U.S. investments
• Pushes the U.S. Dollar even higher
U.S. TRADE
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Widening US Trade Deficit
Travel Abroad is more affordable
Imported goods are cheaper for Americans
25 Million Containers Inbound in 2014 (up
4.6%)
• “The CHINA EFFECT”
35% of U.S. Imports originate in China
Future Trade opportunities?
• NAFTA – North American Free Trade Agreement
• Europe – Not likely as US Dollar stays strong
• India – Promising market for USA & European
Exports
• ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations
• Cuba – Opportunities abound, but on very small
scale
• FDI – Foreign Direct Investments in USA
and Abroad
Global Mobility Trends
Expatriate & Corporate
What is an Expat?
 Expat: an expatriate person
transitive verb
 1. to withdraw (oneself) from residence in or
allegiance to one's native country
intransitive verb
• 2. to leave one's native country to live
elsewhere; also to renounce allegiance to
one's native country
Expatriates across the world
• Over 50 million Expats worldwide
• Likely to reach 57 Million by 2017
• Saudi Arabia has most followed by India,
China, and the U.K.
• 76% are Workers, Students, Retired
Expats and Corporate Transferees
Ten Best Job Markets in the World Today
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Saudi Arabia
Thailand
Kuwait
Somaliland
Region
5. Qatar
6. Laos
7. Philippines
8. Paraguay
9. Tajikistan
10. Panama
International Moving
• Top Five “Saddest Countries”
• Togo
• Benin
• Central African Republic
• Burundi
• Rwanda
• All five are in Africa
International Moving
• Top Five “Happiest “ Countries
• Norway
• Denmark
• Australia
• New Zealand
• Sweden
• Five of top ten in Scandinavia
• USA ranks #15, Ireland #18 & U.K. #21
2014 HSBC Expat Explorer Survey
Considering - Expenses, Economics, Life
Experience & Raising Children
• Switzerland – “Best Country” to live in
followed by:
• Singapore, China, Germany and Bahrain
WHERE are People Moving …or not?
 Five-Year Trend (Inter-Country Moves):
 USA and UK continue to hold onto first and
second place
 China is third, followed by Germany
 Both countries showing a slowing or flat trend in
relocations from USA
 Switzerland and Singapore – remain strong due
to financial firms rotating staff
 India, France and Hong Kong – Gone flat and
barely holding onto their previous slots
Source: CARTUS, Global Relocation Destination List
WHERE will People be Moving
to and from?
TOP TEN relocation destinations:
1.United States
2.United Kingdom
3.Singapore
4.China
5.Switzerland
6. India
7. Germany
8. Hong Kong
9. Japan
10. Canada
Source: UniGroup Worldwide UTS Migration Study
Where People are Looking in the USA
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Canada: Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, Los Angeles, Miami, Las Vegas
United Kingdom: Los Angeles, Orlando, New York, Kissimmee,
Davenport
Australia: Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Detroit
Germany: Los Angeles, New York, Miami, San Antonio, San Diego
Brazil: Orlando, Miami, New York, Los Angeles, Boca Raton
Mexico: San Diego, San Antonio, El Paso, Miami, Los Angeles
France: Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Miami Beach, San Francisco
India: New York, San Jose, Los Angeles, Dallas, Las Vegas
Italy: Miami, New York, Miami Beach, Los Angeles, San Diego
Russian Federation: Los Angeles, New York, Miami, San Francisco,
Chicago
Corporate Relocations
•$13.3 Billion: Spent on Corporate Relocation in past 12 months
•$14.1 Billion: Projected Corporate Relocation budget next 12
months
•83% Importance on customer satisfaction/experience when
selecting a Relocation Partner
•86% Importance on pricing when selecting Relocation Partner
•61% Importance of flexibility when selecting a Relocation
Partner
Source: Corporate Information Services
www.corporateinformationservices.com
Why Companies Move People
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Growth of Company
Reorganization / Restructuring
Promotions / Resignations
Knowledge / Skills Transfer
Expansion into New Territories
Budget Constraints
Tax Advantages or Disadvantages
Acquisitions / Mergers
Source: Atlas Van Lines – 2013 Corporate Relocation Survey
Corporate
Mobility Trends
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Split Families
“Managed” Lump Sum
Tiered Policies
Linking Diversity & Inclusion to Mobility
Younger & Female Assignees
Consecutive Assignments
Increased Assignments into Africa
What Percent of USA Employees
Relocate to Each Country?
Singapore
4%
Malaysia
3%
Brazil
3%
Belgium Italy
2%
3%
Israel
2%
U.K
24%
U.K
Germany
India
4%
China
Australia
Japan
5%
France
Switzerland
Netherlands
Japan
Netherlands
5%
India
Singapore
Malaysia
Switzerland
5%
Germany
16%
Brazil
Belgium
Italy
France
6%
Israel
Australia
6%
China
12%
WHERE is Corporate America
Moving IN From?
TOP TEN Origin Countries – Inbound USA:
1. Germany
2. United Kingdom
3. Switzerland
4. France
5. China
6. Australia
7. The Netherlands
8. Japan
9. Belgium
10. Singapore
Source: UniGroup Worldwide UTS Migration Study
“Keep An Eye On”
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Piracy on the High Seas
North Pole Moving
“The Russian Road”
China’s New “Silk Road”
Widening of the Panama Canal
Advanced Technology in Transportation
Moving in Outer Space
Moving Over the North Pole
North Sea Route
a.k.a “Northeast Passage”
 New Shipping Lane from Europe to Asia
 North of Russia – Cuts off thousands of miles
and avoids transiting Suez Canal
 In 2010 just four (4) ships made the trip
 Since April 2014, 300+ voyages have received
permission from Russia’s North Sea Route
Administration
 Similar increased shipping activity in the
Canadian Northwest Passage
China’s NEW “Silk Road”
Future Impacts on Ocean Shipping
 Panama Canal Expansion in 2015
 Larger TEU Vessels begin transiting Canal
 USA West Coast Ports will lose volume to Gulf
and East Coast Ports
 Bigger Ships = Bigger Mishaps/Cargo Loses =
Bigger Insurance Premiums
More Mis-declared Container weights
Impact on “General Average” ?
 Increase in “Round-the-World” sailings
Is Space the Next Market?
• Russia to begin Moon Colonization in 2030
• Which mover will handle first shipment of HHG?
• Who will be first mover to have branch on the
moon? Will they be a member of BAR / IAM?
Will Rogues still be a problem?
THANK YOU!
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