Share of Home Sales
Vacation
Home Buyers,
13%
Investor Buyers,
20%
Primary
Residence
Buyers, 67%
2014 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey
Consumer and REALTOR® Confidence
Buyers’ View of Homes
Good
financial
investment
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Married Single Single
All Buyers couple female male
Unmarried
couple
79% 79% 78% 81%
83%
Pent Up Demand
Existing
Home Sales
Population
2000
2013
5.2 m
5.1 m
282 m
316 m
Online Agent Recommendations
Used online
Did not use
online
recommend
ations and
would not
consider
using
43%
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Used online
recommendations and it
influenced choice of agent
10%
recommend
ations and it
did not
affect my
agent choice
9%
Did not use
online
recommend
ations but
would
consider
doing so
next time
38%
Call Them Back!
Number of Agents Buyer Interviewed Before Picking Agent Used
70%
67%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20
20%
8
10%
4
0%
One
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Two
Three
Four or more
Consumer Satisfaction
• Process:
–89% of buyers are satisfied with
the buying process
–88% of sellers are satisfied with
the selling process
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Consumer Satisfaction
• With the agent:
– 88% of buyers would use agent or recommend
to others
• Since buying typically have recommended
3+ times - 28%
– 83% of sellers would use agent again or
recommend to others
• Since selling typically have recommended
3+times—28%
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of
REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual
Residential Forum
New Orleans, LA
Real Estate
Trends and
2015 Outlook
Expectations of Firm Profitability
(over the next 12-months)
Existing + New Home Sales
Single Family Housing Starts …
½ the Normal
Thousand units
Multifamily Housing Starts …
Back to Normal
Thousand units
Nationwide Home Price Recovery
(Almost Doubled over 20 years)
FHFA Home Price Index
Household Net Worth
($5,500 vs. $195,500)
Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
Renter Households from 2010
(Increased by 4 million)
In thousands
Homeownership Rate
First-time Buyer Share
(Less than 30% of All Buyers for 18 months)
Among only primary owner-occupants (excluding investors)
= 33% in 2014 … Lowest since 1987
30-year Mortgage Rates
Where Are Young People Hiding?
• 57 million Americans or 18.1% of the
population live in a multi-generational
family household in 2012,
– double the number who lived in
such households in 1980
• Of those who are 25-34:
– 20% of the unemployed live with
parents
– 12% of employed live with parents
Pew Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
failure to launch
Pew Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Student Loan
(in $billion)
Desire of Gen Y to Buy a Home?
• 75% believe home ownership is an important
long-term goal
• 73% believe ownership is an excellent
investment
• 59% of young renters (18 to 39) believe owning
a home makes more sense
• 73% of young renters also believe it would be
difficult to get a mortgage today
• Many young people think 20 percent down
payment is needed !
Fannie Mae, 2013 Demand Institute Housing and Community Survey
Non-worrisome CPI Inflation – Yet
COLA of 1.7% in 2015
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent
Growth
(Above 3%)
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Shrinking Shadow Inventory
(but not in CT, NY, NJ)
Distressed Property Sales
(% of total sales)
Household Net Worth at All-Time High
Sales to International Buyers Increased
Both in Terms of Transactions and Price
Median Expected Price Change of REALTORS® in Next
12 Months, By State
Based on July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
Housing Forecast
2013
2014
Likely
2015
2016
Forecast Forecast
Housing Starts
925,000
1.0 million
1.3 million
1.4 million
New Home
Sales
430,000
440,000
620,000
700,000
Existing Home
Sales
5.1 million
4.9 million
5.3 million
5.4 million
Median Price
Growth
+ 11.5%
+ 5.3%
+ 4%
+ 4%
30-year Rate
4.0%
4.2%
4.9%
6.0%
Underwriting
Standards
Strict
Strict
Transition
Normal
Fayetteville Regional
Association of REALTORS®
2412 Raeford Road
1-910-323-1421
www.FayettevilleNCRealtors.com