Earth : Atmosphere Lecture 18 Increase in Atmospheric Oxygen The amount of oxygen in the atmosphere has evolved with time. Outgassing losing H & He, N2 remain increased O2 & decrease of CO2 Comparing Atmosphere Structure of Earth Atmosphere Like the interior, the atmosphere has a layered structure. Layered Structure Greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect Moderate Greenhouse effect is good! Without the modest greenhouse effect on the Earth, the average global temperature of the Earth would be -2°F With the right amount of greenhouse gas, Earth’s average temperature is 58°F Human and the Earth World Population Growth Through History 12 Prediction 11 2100 9 Old Stone 7 Age Billions 8 New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age 6 Modern Age Middle Ages 2000 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1 Black Death —The Plague 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 years B.C. B.C. B.C. 4000 B.C. Exponential Growth 10 1900 1800 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). Just how many of us are there? Paul MacCready, designer of the first solar-powered aircraft, has estimated the total weight of all terrestrial and avian vertebrates. When agriculture began, we humans and our pets and livestock together accounted for less than 0.1% of the total. Today, we and our domesticated animals account for 98% of the total Tokyo Water Park Slogan “Welcome to breathtaking Tokyo Water Park where you can wash away the pressure and stress of the overcrowded city and relax with your friends in the smoothing enjoyment of sun, fun and splashing." Summer Beach in Busan, Korea With its huge and still growing population and rapidly growing per capita use of resources, China is a disaster not only for China’s own environment, but for the world as a whole. Just a few specific examples: • Endless construction of coal burning power plants • Destruction of the world’s rainforests to supply China with food and other resources • Massacre of 100 million sharks a year for shark’s fin soup • Funding of numerous environmentally and socially destructive dams worldwide Did something change here? Logarithmic plot straight line in this plot is exponential behavior slope indicates growth rate 1%/yr 0.035% per year A closer look at recent trends… green (oil) revolution 1.9%/yr (pesticides, irrigation, fertilizers…) industrial revolution 0.8%/yr 1950 1865 0.4%/yr Human Impacts on the Earth! Deforestation : Amazon Global Warming Doesn’t everyone already know about Global Warming? GALLUP annual poll global warming is generally exaggerated? 392.40 ppm Venus and Earth Venus Earth 0.7 Astronomical Unit 0.95 Rearth Rocky planet Geological activity Thick atmosphere 1.0 Astronomical Unit (AU) 1.0 Rearth Rocky planet Geological activity Thick atmosphere 900°F 200,000 more CO2 in atmo 57°F Venus was like a tropical paradise (~80°F) before Either through “Dry” or “Wet” runaway greenhouse effect, Venus lost all her water and CO2 had to be remained in the atmosphere Dry effect Wet effect Temp was high enough initially so that there was no water condensation no CO2 dissolution accumulated outgassed CO2 warmer temp more evaporation of water H2O broken by solar UV higher CO2 and hotter temp More net evaporation than precipitation ocean gradually vanished higher T caused rocks to release stored carbon more H2O in the atmosphere causing even stronger greenhouse H2O broken by solar UV dry, barren, hot planet Can Earth follow the same footsteps of Venus YES! “Wet” runaway greenhouse effect on Earth would require that the majority of the oceans around the world would evaporate more water than precipitate critical temperature is about 80F By 2100, average global temperature can rise ~70F which is dangerously close to the critical point. The only thing that has prevented Earth from being another Venus was the CO2 cycle which is a slow, yet very delicate process. If this process were ever to start, there is not way to stop it Localized Runaway Greenhouse effect Pacific ocean to the NE of Australia exhibited a runaway effect (May 2002) This location was warm enough year round to continually evaporate more water vapor than precipitated back to it. Luckily, this is only a localized effect and surrounding ocean compensate for it. But, this may be an example tells us that we are uncomfortably close to the entire planetary runaway effect. Should we take a risk with the tipping point? Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. "Unlike the plagues of the dark ages or contemporary diseases we do not yet understand, the modern plague of overpopulation is soluble by means we have discovered and with resources we possess. What is lacking is not sufficient knowledge of the solution, but universal consciousness of the gravity of the problem and the education of the billions who are its victims.” Acceptance Speech: Margaret Sanger Award in Human Rights, 1966 As educated people and citizens, we have responsibilities to remind the public. In summary… Important Concepts Important Terms Earth’s Atmosphere Greenhouse effect Runaway greenhouse effect Exponential growth • runaway greenhouse effect Global warming Similarity b/w Venus & Earth Chapter/sections covered in this lecture : sections 9-5 through 9-7