SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR THE 2013/14 FLORIDA
CITRUS SEASON
DECEMBER FORECAST
FCM Board Meeting
january 8, 2014
FLORIDA ORANGE CROP, 2013-14.
DECEMBER FORECAST
FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
UTILIZATION AND JUICE IMPORTS
JUICE SUPPLY, AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT AND INVENTORY
RETAIL SALES AND PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
NURSERY PROPAGATIONS
SOURCE: FDACS, BUDWOOD ANNUAL REPORTS.
Season
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Orange
Propagations
2,362,829
3,069,515
3,348,479
2,391,375
2,541,410
3,172.966
3,898,083
% Change
% Oranges
NA
30%
9%
-29%
6%
25%
23%
91%
87%
89%
80%
81%
81%
83%
ORANGE BEARING TREE INVENTORY
FDACS/FASS. FLORIDA CITRUS STATISTICS, 2012-13.
Season
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
Bearing Trees (000) % Net Change
NA
63,950
61,742
60,754
59,561
58,158
57,459
57,146
56,794
-3.5%
-1.6%
-2.0%
-2.4%
-1.2%
-0.5%
-0.6%
% Mortality
NA
NA
NA
-5.1%
-4.9%
-4.6%
NA
NA
FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
SOURCE: FDACS/NASS REPORTS.
Early and Mid
Valencia
Season
Pieces
Drop
Size
Pieces
Drop
Size
2006-07
690
8%
233
426
15%
198
2007-08
1,058
8%
264
676
15%
221
2008-09
1,082
11%
257
575
15%
219
2009-10
866
8%
246
480
14%
218
2010-11
932
7%
280
598
16%
227
2011-12
918
13%
235
567
19%
212
2012-13
1,034
18%
274
661
22%
231
2013-14F (Dec)
918
21%
287
614
19%
243
FLORIDA ORANGE CROP UTILIZATION
(1,000,000 BOXES)
FCOJ
COJ
Fresh
Other
Total
2005/06
49.1
90.2
4.5
3.9
147.7
2006/07
46.0
75.2
5.0
2.8
129.0
2007/08
78.0
85.1
4.4
2.7
170.2
2008/09
71.2
82.8
5.5
3.0
162.5
2009/10
51.3
75.1
4.5
2.8
133.7
2010/11
50.3
82.6
4.5
3.1
140.5
2011/12
63.9
75.5
4.6
2.6
146.7
2012/13
47.5
79.2
4.5
2.4
133.6
2013/14 Nov
41.1
77.0
4.5
2.4
125.0
2013/14 Dec
39.1
75.0
4.5
2.4
121.0

NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCOJ.
US ORANGE JUICE IMPORTS
OCTOBER THROUGH SEPTEMBER
Million Single Strength Gallons
11-12
12-13
% Chg
All Imports
11-12
$ Value/SSG
12-13
% Chg
223.3
420.5
88%
$
1.76
$
1.35
-23%
NFC
41.8
49.8
19%
$
1.66
$
1.49
-10%
Concentrate
60.5
187.5
210%
$
1.54
$
1.11
-28%
NFC
4.2
6.2
48%
$
2.76
$
2.40
-13%
Concentrate
116.9
177.0
51%
$
1.87
$
1.53
-18%
Brazil
All Others


Brazilian prices need to have duties added, whereas ‘Others’ (Mexico and Costa Rica) do not.
FCOJ beginning inventory is priced ~$1.40/ssg!
Source: US Dept of Commerce.
US ORANGE JUICE IMPORTS
OCTOBER 2013
Million Single Strength Gallons
12-13
13-14
% Chg
All Imports
55.5
12-13
$ Value/SSG
13-14
% Chg
47.8
-14%
$
1.23
$
1.37
12%
Brazil
NFC
5.9
7.7
30%
$
1.43
$
1.71
20%
Concentrate
41.1
31.9
-22%
$
1.06
$
1.22
15%
NFC
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
-
Concentrate
8.5
8.2
-4%
1.63
-13%
All Others


0.0
$
1.88
$
Concentrate prices are $.10 per gallon higher than where they closed in 2012/13.
Brazilian NFC prices are >$.20 per gallon higher.
Source: US Dept of Commerce.
FL OJ AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT & INVENTORY
CURRENT SEASON FORECAST VS YEAR AGO
Item
12-13
13-14 F. (Dec) % Change
Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (MM PS)
Beginning Inventory
Million Boxes Utilized
Juice Production
Other Supplies
Availability
Movement
Ending Inventory
Weeks Supply
254.13
47.0
316.41
199.59
770.13
450.66
319.47
37
319.47
39.1
261.75
130.00
711.22
421.07
290.15
36
26%
-13%
-17%
-35%
-8%
-7%
-9%
-3%
After 12 wks
-55.6%
-33.5%
-12.5%
11.2%
Chilled Orange Juice (MM PS)
Beginning Inventory
Million Boxes Utilized
Juice Production
Other Supplies
Availability
Movement (incl. evap)
Ending Inventory
Weeks Supply
Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports.
192.00
79.2
519.48
45.06
756.54
537.26
219.28
21
219.28
75.0
502.08
34.00
755.36
522.68
232.68
23
14%
-5%
-3%
-70%
unch
-3%
6%
9%
-22.1%
-72.1%
-2.3%
-0.2%
US RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALES – ALL CATEGORIES
FDM PLUS WALMART
In 2003/04, Branded Recon comprised 17% of all retail sales, equivalent of 23mm boxes.
The pace for 2013/14 equates to 11%, or 7mm boxes.
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
SSE Ga.
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
NFC
PL/Generic
Top 3 Recon
FCOJ
RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALES
BY CATEGORY: IMPORTANCE AND STD % CHANGE
Gallon Sales
127.1 MM ssg
10.0%
Percent Change vs Last Season
STD: 12/21/13
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
NFC
Recon
FCOJ
SS
NFC COMPRISES 59% OF ALL RETAIL VOLUME AND 68%
OF THE REVENUE, WHERE AS. RECON RTS COMPRISES 37%
AND 28%, RESPECTIVELY.
NFC
Recon
Gallon
Revenue
FCOJ
ALL OJ
Pricing
RTS PRICES ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS YEAR, YET
VOLUME CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR BOTH
NFC AND RECON. NFC REVENUES ARE LOWER FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 2009-10.
Source: FDOC, Nielsen Retail Sales, Monthly Top-line Report, period ending 12/21/13.
U.S. OJ SUPPLY & CONSUMPTION
Presumed
Beg.
Fla
End. Consumption
Season
Inv.
Prod.
Inv.
Per
IMP
EXP
TOTAL
Capita
- - - - - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - - - - - - Gallons
Other
U.S.
Prod.
U.S.
08-09
680
1,035
32
317
125
722
1,217
4.0
09-10
713
806
41
328
147
588
1,153
3.7
10-11
588
864
56
265
214
422
1,138
3.7
11-12
422
928
39
223
152
463
996
3.2
12-13p
463
839
30
421
169
539
1,045
3.3
13-14f
539
742
50
290
180
524
917
2.8
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT CROP, 2013-14.
DECEMBER FORECAST
FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
UTILIZATION
JUICE SUPPLY, AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT AND INVENTORY
PRODUCTIVITY SUB-FACTORS. AVERAGES AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE AVERAGE.
SOURCE: FASS. CITRUS CROP ESTIMATE ADVISORY COMMITTEE REPORT, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013.
USDA/NASS CITRUS CROP ESTIMATES.
Pieces of Fruit
Statistic
Average
Average
Average
Period
White
Red
% Harvested
White
Red
Fruit per Box
White
Red
10-year
414
415
86%
85%
95
104
414
415
86%
85%
95
104
489
457
84%
84%
108
115
6-year
3-year
2013/14
November
555
500
80%
80%
122
122
2013/14
December
555
500
81%
77%
124
131
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT CROP UTILIZATION
(1,000,000 BOXES)
FCGJ
CGJ
Fresh
Other
Total
2005/06
8.0
4.1
6.2
1.0
19.3
2006/07
11.6
4.4
10.3
0.9
27.2
2007/08
10.4
5.2
9.9
1.0
26.6
2008/09
8.4
3.7
8.7
0.9
21.7
2009/10
6.0
4.6
8.7
0.9
20.3
2010/11
7.0
4.2
7.7
0.9
19.8
2011/12
6.9
3.8
7.2
0.9
18.9
2012/13
6.1
4.2
7.1
0.9
18.3
2013/14 Nov
5.9
4.0
7.0
0.9
17.8
2013/14 Dec
5.4
3.8
6.7
0.9
16.7

NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCGJ.
FL GJ AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT & INVENTORY
CURRENT SEASON FORECAST VERSUS YEAR AGO
Item
12-13
13-14F. (Dec)
% Change
After 12 wks
Frozen Concentrate Grapefruit Juice (MM PS)
Beginning Inventory
Million Boxes Utilized
Juice Production
Other Supplies
Availability
Movement
Ending Inventory
Weeks Supply
22.1
6.1
29.2
2.8
54.1
33.4
20.7
32
20.7
5.4
25.4
0.2
47.7
29.0
18.3
33
-7%
-12%
-13%
-93%
-12%
-12%
-11%
1%
11.2
3.8
17.7
0.1
29.0
17.5
10.0
30
-8%
-11%
-14%
-91%
14%
-10%
-10%
unch
-38%
-14.9%
-13.5%
Chilled Grapefruit Juice (MM PS)
Beginning Inventory
Million Boxes Utilized
Juice Production
Other Supplies
Availability
Movement (incl. evap)
Ending Inventory
Weeks Supply
Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports. EMRA Forecasts for 2013-14, 12/2/13.
12.1
4.2
20.5
1.1
33.7
22.5
11.2
30
49%
-20.2%
7.1%
THANK YOU!