Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand standard calculations of national availability.
Be aware of existing methods for estimating crop
production.
Identify methods for calculating household level food
stocks.
Be aware of key aspects to consider in planning
availability assessments.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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INTRODUCTION
What is food availability?
It is the amount of food that is physically present in
a country or area through all forms of domestic
production, stocks, commercial imports and food aid.
There are various methods and tools to assess food availability...
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
The Food Balance Sheet is a key tool used to look at
food availability at a national level.
It describes all the factors
which constitute the total
availability of food in a
country over a selected
twelve month period.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
Not all the available food in a country is
available for human consumption.
The Food Balance Sheet incorporates estimates of
“losses” into the supply estimate to get availability
of food for human consumption.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
FOOD
AVAILABLE
FOOD
NEEDED
The food available for human
consumption is compared to the
food needed for that consumption
(consumption requirements)
over the selected period.
The Food Gap is the difference between the estimated
food available for human consumption and the
consumption requirements.
The estimate of a gap is an average across the
population.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
FBS sections:
FOOD BALANCE SHEET
Supply
• Production
• Changes in stocks
Uses
Most Food Balance Sheets
(FBS) are estimated for a 12
month time.
• Human consumption needs
• Losses and seeds
• Animal feeds and processing
Expected Imports
• Expected Commercial
• Food aid received/pledged
Uncovered Food Gap
The FBS usually looks into the
future and can be updated as
further information is available.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
Very few places have the all data
needed to estimate a comprehensive
FBS including all food commodities, so
you may need to focus on just the key
staple foods in the country.
On the other hand, accounting for as many staples as
possible is important, because just looking at one
commodity alone will give a false view of food gaps.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
A country may produce all of a given
commodity that it needs; in that case,
it is said to be “self-reliant”.
However, with external trade as a
possibility, there are many other
sources of supply.
A policy of self-reliance can be costly for a country if it
means producing at any cost to meet the needs.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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HOW THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET IS USED
A Food Balance Sheet (FBS) can be very useful, but it also
has some limitations:
FBS CAN HELP
FBS CANNOT HELP
- Governments in understanding
the food situation.
If prices change, the FBS cannot
incorporate:
- Governments which may use
its results to set international
trade policies.
• all the actions that consumers
take.
- Food aid agencies in assessing
the feasibility of local purchases
of supplies for distribution within
the country or elsewhere in the
region.
Since the FBS is usually based on
a 12 month period, it cannot take
account of:
- The interpretation of overall
price movements.
• the changes in import/export.
• seasonality; and
• local differences.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
Estimating crop and livestock production
may contribute to understanding food availability.
This relationship can be used to estimate the
production of a given crop.
TOTAL PRODUCTION =
AVERAGE YIELD * TOTAL PLANTED AREA
Yield is the total amount produced divided by the land
area, a measure of land productivity.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
There are different methods to estimate yields:
Extension Agents
Crop Cutting
Regression Analysis
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
An advanced method consist in
mapping with Geographic
Information Systems (GIS)
and Remote Sensing with
satellite imagery from
METEOSTAT and other satellites.
Agencies focused on these technological advances:
• NOAA
• NASA
• FAO/GIEWS
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
FAO often conduct Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions
(CFSAM), for which the main responsibility is to derive
estimates of production for use in the Food Balance Sheet.
Steps of carrying out a CFSAM:
Identify information and methods
already available in the country.
Determine the key agricultural
zones within the country.
Assess production in each zone.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION
Availability can also be assessed at
household level, estimating what
each household has in stock of
the main foods.
The assessment can be done at
sub-country level.
Since seasonal shifts can be very important, baseline
information of a “normal year” is necessary for
interpreting current levels of stocks.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION
The methods for assessing household stocks are:
Household surveys
Production minus estimated
consumption can be used to
estimate projected stocks.
Rapid appraisals
Teams are sent out to talk with
community leaders, groups of
farmers and local experts.
The combination of the two methods may provide the best information.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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AVAILABILITY AND MARKETS
The existence of food doesn’t
imply a good distribution of
food through space and time.
Most often the supplies
needed are obtained through
the market or through
relatives who buy supplies
elsewhere.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT
Useful considerations when planning an availability assessment:
TIME
ACCURACY
SKILLS NEEDED
RESOURCES AVAILABLE
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Assessing Availability
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KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT
TIME
In situation of emergency, people
may need food as soon as possible.
With a lengthy survey people will
have to wait before the decision is
made to send in food aid.
Using previous estimates and
information will assist you in
narrowing down the considerations
in an assessment.
In developing an information system a longer term perspective
may be critical to your ability to respond quickly.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT
ACCURACY
• Determining the level of precision
is a balancing act.
• A key feature is honesty in
reporting.
• A first step is thoroughly
documenting your assumptions
and the basis for your estimates.
• Often analysts use previous
estimates as a basis for projecting
values for the coming year.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT
SKILLS NEEDED
• Selecting appropriate methods
also includes assessing the skills
of your statistical unit or agency.
• The various methods using data
collection and estimations require
many skills.
You need people who can get the information and interpret
what they obtain.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT
RESOURCES AVAILABLE
It is important to assess your resources, such as:
• time;
• transport for the staff to get to the field;
• financial resources to pay travel and other cash expenses;
• computers and staff to conduct analysis;
• computer software for the analysis.
Identify regional resources that may be available and
can complement local resources.
Use the Web.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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SUMMARY
• Food availability is the amount of food that is physically present in a country
or area through all forms of domestic production, stocks, commercial imports
and food aid.
• The Food Balance Sheet describes all the factors which constitute the total
availability of food in a country and allows us to differentiate between the
estimated and the available food (Food Gap).
• Estimating crop and livestock production may contribute to understanding
food availability. This usually implies calculating average yields.
• There are different methods to estimate yields.
• Household level availability is important especially for agricultural
households and can be assessed through periodic large household surveys
and rapid appraisals.
• In planning an availability assessment, you should consider some key
aspects related to time, level of accuracy, skills needed and resources
available.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...
Online Resources:
FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets: History, sources, concepts, and definitions. Paper #5 for the Project on
Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome, Food and
Agriculture Organization.
(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/5_FBS_concepts.pdf)
FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets and Food Consumption Surveys: A Comparison of Methodologies and
Results. Paper #7 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit
Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA).
(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/7_FBS_FCS.pdf)
FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets: Applications and Uses. Paper #6 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring
of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development
Economics Division (ESA).
(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/6_FBS_uses.pdf)
Gross, R., H. Schoeneberger, H. Pfeifer, H-J. A. Preuss (2000). The Four Dimensions of Food and Nutrition
Security: Definitions and Concepts. Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income
Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA).
(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/P-01_RG_Concept.pdf)
Aube, Thierry (2005). Improving the Methodology for Joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment
Missions: Estimating Commercial Imports. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS.
(http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools/EstimatingCommercialImports.pdf)
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...
Donovan, Cynthia, Megan McGlinchy, John Staatz and David Tschirley (2005). Emergency Needs
Assessments and the Impact of Food Aid on Local Markets. Desk Review prepared for WFP/SENAC.
Rome, World Food Programme, Emergency Needs Assessment Branch (ODAN).
(http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp086537.pdf )
FAO Statistics Division. Website on Supply Utilization Accounts and Food Balance Sheets in the Context
of a National Statistical System. (http://www.fao.org/es/ess/suafbs.asp)
FAO (2000). Handbook for defining and setting up of a food security information and famine early
warning system (FSIEWS). (ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/003/X8622e/X8622e00.pdf)
Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (1996). Guidelines for
Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS.
(http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools/CFSAME1996.pdf)
Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (2006). Crop Prospects
and Food Situation in Southern Africa, April 2006. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
GIEWS. (http://www.fao.org/Giews/english/shortnews/SouthernAfrica24April06.pdf)
Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (2004). Overview of
Methodology on CFSAMs (PowerPoint presentation). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
GIEWS (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools.htm)
WFP. 2005. Market Assessment: Pakistan Earthquake Affected Areas. December. Rome: World Food
Programme. (http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp084203.pdf)
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...
WFP. 2005. Guatemala: Market Profile for Emergency Food Security Needs Assessments. Rome: WFP, ODAN
Emergency Needs Assessments Branch.
(http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp086536.pdf)
Fewsnet
FEWSNET, MACO, and ZNFU (2004). Review of the Zambia National Food Balance Sheet. Lusaka, FEWSNET,
Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MACO), Zambian National Farmers Union (ZNFU), Food Reserve
Agency (FRA). (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1000429.pdf)
FEWSNET, et al. 2005-2006. Cross Border Study Reports for Southern Africa and for Zambia.
(http://www.fews.net)
FEWSNET. 2005. Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Southern Africa. Issue 1.
(http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1000532.pdf)
Terpend, Noëlle (2006). An Assessment of Knowledge about Trade and Markets Related to Food Security in
West Africa. Joint FEWS NET and WFP study. Rome: World Food Programme (WFP), Emergency Needs
Assessment Branch (ODAN). (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1001068.pdf)
Other
Jacobs, Krista, and Daniel A. Sumner. (2002) The Food Balance Sheets of the Food and Agriculture
Organization: A Review of Potential Ways to Broaden the Appropriate Uses of the Data. A Review Sponsored
by FAO. Davis, California: University of California, Davis.
(http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/uploads/grad_papers/fbs_review.pdf )
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Assessing Availability
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IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...
SADC Food Security Early Warning System (2006). SADC Food Security Update – No. 3.06 (May).
Gaborone: SADC Released: Gaborone, Food Security Early Warning System.
(http://www.reliefweb.int/library/documents/2006/sadc-southernafrica-15jun.pdf)
Tschirley, David (2006), Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement: An Assessment of Experience in Africa
and Elements of Good Donor Practice. by David Tschirley. 2007. MSU IDPW 91, East Lansing, Michigan.
(http://aec.msu.edu/fs2/papers/idwp91.pdf)
Vulnerability Assessment Committee. 2005/6. Vulnerability Assessment Committee Reports from Southern
Africa. (http://www.sahims.net)
Additional Reading:
WFP and FEWS NET. 2006. Evaluation of the WFP/FEWS NET Informal Cross-Border Trade Monitoring
System. Draft Final Report. June. Report for WFP through Acacia Consulting. Lusaka, Zambia: World
Food Programme (WFP) and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET).
Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (2005). Provisional Results of the Harvest Outcome Analysis.
Lilongwe, Malawi: Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC), in collaboration with FEWS NET, Save
the Children, SADC FANR Vulnerability Assessment Committee and the World Food Programme.
Maxwell, D and Watkins, B. (2003), Humanitarian information systems and emergencies in the Greater
Horn of Africa: logical components and logical linkages. Disasters March 2003, 27(1):72-90.