Asia-Pacific Pivot: Futile Campaign to
Reinforce U.S. Hegemony
Sec. Hagel & Defense Minister
Onodera – April 5, 2014
Park, Obama.Abe in the Hague
March 25, 2014
Chairman Xi & European Council
President Rampuy – April 1, 2014
B-2 & B-52 Simulated Nuclear Attacks
Against North Korea – March, 2013
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
Chinese Warship
Challenges Malaysian Territorial Claim
U.S. National Intelligence Council:
Global Trends 2025
• “the transfer of global wealth and economic
power now under way, roughly from West to
East” is “without precedent in modern
history”
“Asia will return to its historic status, with more
than half of the world’s population and half of
the world’s economic output. America must be
present there. Markets and economic power rest
on political frameworks, and American military
power provides that framework.”
Oil & 60% of the U.S. Navy
“Obama is sending a clear
message to Beijing, we are
becoming less dependent on
imported oil, so we enjoy ‘a
stronger hand’ in
international relations. You
are becoming more reliant
on imports, and are in the
unfortunate position of
having to relay on supply
routes that are controlled by
the US Navy”
John Kerry is a Forbes
Wealth derived in part from opium
trade
• J
Secretary of
State
William Seward
If the United
States is to
replace Britain
as the world’s
dominant power,
it must first
control Asia
Subic Bay 1890s
(Charged) Class A War Criminal
Prime Minister Kishi Nobusuke
U.S. Asia-Pacific Nuclear Blackmail
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1950 Truman threatens Chinese over Chosin Reservoir, Korea.
1951 Truman approves military request to attack Manchuria.
1953 “Operation Big Stick” Eisenhower threatens China to force end to Korean War
1954 Secretary of State Dulles offers French three tactical nuclear weapons to break Dienbienphu
siege
1958 Eisenhower orders JCS to prepare nuclear attack vs. China during Quemoy
1967 Johnson's nuclear threats against Vietnam to break siege at Khe Shan.
1968 Johnson threatens nuclear attack against North Korea USS Pueblo seizure
1969 Nixon’s “November Ultimatum” against Vietnam.
1973 Nixon pledges to South Vietnamese President Thieu that he will respond with nuclear attacks
or bombing North Vietnam’s dikes if it violates Paris Peace Accords
1975 Sec. of Defense Schlesinger threatens N. Korea with nuclear retaliation if it attacks S. Korea
1976 Ax Incident, President Ford dispatches nuclear armed B-52 from Guam toward N. Korea
1993 Clinton threatens N. Korea.
1994 Clinton again threatens N.Korea
2003 Bush dispatches 24 nuclear capable bombers to Guam during crisis with N. Korea.
2013 Obama simulated B-52 & B-2 attacks against N.Korea
America's Pacific Century
The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be
right at the center of the action.
BY HILLARY CLINTON |NOVEMBER 2011
Assistant Secretary of
State for East Asian and
Pacific Affairs
It will be important
for China to accept
that the United States
is going to plan an
enduring, strong role
in the Asia-Pacific
region. But the United
States does want a
stronger, deeper
relationship with
China, and we have
made that undeniably
clear.”
Asahi Shimbun,
Feb. 9, 2013
“
Global Times - China
“The U.S.-China wrestling match over the
South China Sea issue has raised the stakes
in deciding who the real future ruler of the
planet will be.”
Japanese & Chinese Warships, Taiwanese Fishing
Vessels Engaged Near Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
DOD: Military and Security Developments
Involving the People’s Republic of China
– Aircraft carrier(s) and Growing Naval Capacity
– Area Denial Missile Development
– Next Generation of Fighter Refueling & Transport
Aircraft for power projection
– Cyber Warfare Capabilities
– Nuclear Weapons Modernization
– Satellite information & warfare technologies
Japanese Prime Minister
Abe
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Seeks to Restore Much of PreWar Order:
• Reinterpret Constitution
• Denies Wartime
Aggression
• Visit to Yasakuni Shrine
• Increasing Military
Spending
• Denies territorial
disputes exist
• New State Secrets Law
• Denies military’s role in
Wartime Sexual Slavery –
Apology to be Revisited
• Information Control NHK
Robert Kaplan:
The Revenge of Geography
• “China is a rising and still immature power,
obsessed with the territorial humiliations it
suffered in the nineteenth and twentieth
centuries. [It] is developing asymmetric and antiaccess niche capabilities designed to deny the
U.S. Navy easy entry into the East China Sea and
other coastal waters. China is not remotely
capable of directly challenging the U.S. militarily.
The aim...is dissuasion…that the U.S. Navy in the
future will think twice as [China’s military}
expands, and three times about getting between
the First Island Chain and the Chinese coast.”
President Obama Addresses Australian Parliament
Preparing for Possible War Against
China – Driving Pentagon Spending
F-35 - $1.5 Trillion & Aircraft
Carriers
Air-See Battle Doctrine
Cyber Warfare, Prompt Global Strike, Space &
Nuclear Weapons Modernization
Armitage-Nye
The U.S.-Japan Alliance
Anchoring Stability in Asia
• CHALLENGE - Will Japan Remain a “First Tier” Nation?
Response to Hatoyama challenge of East Asian
Community, Okinawa and “drift” of alliance
• Press reinterpretation of constitution – 6th biggest
military spender w/Iraq, Afghan & pirating precedents
• Nuclear power & resource alliance
• Expand Defense Guidelines for “global” alliance
• Build U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral alliance
– Problem of Japanese nationalism/Abe/history problem
• Okinawa – Retain Futenma
Japan in the Arms Race
South Korea: “Joint vision for a global
alliance and deeper trading partnership.”
Reinforcing Alliances and
Military Cooperation
Philippines
Guam
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Australia
Myanmar
New Zealand
India
Afghanistan/Central Asia
NATO Partnerships
U.S. Bases Returning to Philippines
Trans Pacific Partnership
A Strategic Treaty
• Maximizing U.S. influence as
China challenges the post-war
economic (dis)order
• Integrating Japanese, Korean
& other economies and
societies with the U.S.
• Limiting their dependence on
China
• Linking to U.S.-E.U. Free Trade
Area for “Greater West”
Back to the Future: World War I
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Rising and Declining Powers
Arms Races with New Technologies
Resurgent Nationalism
Territorial Disputes
Resource Competition
Complex Alliance Arrangements
Economic Integration & Competiton
Wild Card Actors
People Aren’t Passive
Opposition to U.S. Militarism
COMMON SECURITY
ALTERNATIVES
Common Security Framework
New Shanghai Communique
Six Party Talks
Direct U.S.-North Korean
Negotiations
Northeast Asian Nuclear
Weapons Free Zone
East Asian Summit
ASEAN +
Budget for All
Solidarity & Focal Points
• Okinawa Anti-Bases
Struggle
• http://chn.ge/1ecQPUJ
• Halt U.S.-ROK War Games
& Nuclear Threats
• Education
• Jeju Anti-Base Struggle
• Move the Money
• Oppose Trans Pacific
Partnership
• Working Group:
www.asiapacificinitiative.o
rg
Working Group for Peace &
Demilitarization in Asia & the Pacific
www.asiapacificiniative.org
Thomas Donilon, National Security Advisor 3/11/13
Four Pillars of Obama’s Engagement & Containment Strategy
1. Continue to strengthen U.S. alliances, alliance with Japan remains
cornerstone
2, Deeper partnership with emerging powers: China, India, Indonesia
3. Build constructive relationships with China
4. Strengthen regional institutions
Layers of Conflict
– legacies from the Cold War – e.g. North Korea’s fears of U.S. &
Japanese gov’t created by U.S.
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– Continued and deepening efforts by the U.S. to reinforce its
Asia-Pacific hegemony
•
– renewed mercantile competition – including imperial
ambitions – reminiscent of the age of colonialism, albeit in the
contexts of neoliberal globalization
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– The intersection of great power competition with tensions
rooted in regional history
U.S.-Japan Alliance – Still the Keystone
Japan: World’s 6th greatest military spender, modern navy,
missiles, stores of plutonium, “Shifting Further Away from
Pacifism” – New York Times
Japan Remains the Keystone
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Challenge after Hatoyama challenge of East Asian
Community & Okinawa: Japan a 1st tier country?
Expanding Defense Guidelines for “global” alliance
Pressing reinterpretation of constitution – 6th biggest
military spender. Iraq, Afghan & pirating precedents
Nuclear power & resource alliance
Okinawa
Effort to build U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral alliance
Problem of Japanese nationalism/Abe/history problem
Tied by alliance to defend in war over
Senkaku/Diaoyu’s vs, China
Thomas Donilon – N’tl Sec. Advisor
Four Pillars of U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategy
• Continue to strengthen our alliances…Our
alliance with Japan remains a cornerstone…
• Forging deeper partnerships with emerging
powers (China, India, Indonesia)
• Building a constructive relationship with
China
• Strengthening regional institutions
Back to the Future: 1890s