The Health Care Workforce Shortage:
An Analysis of the Scope and Impact on Northern
Virginia
Northern Virginia Health Care Workforce Alliance
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Objectives and Approach
Study objectives - identify:
• current and future Northern Virginia health care workforce needs for
24 selected health care professions
• current and future gaps in the health care workforce and the driving
forces leading to these gaps
• training and education, recruitment, and retention best practices
within Northern Virginia and other regions of the country.
Study approach:
• a quantifiable independent survey of a sample of health care
providers in Northern Virginia
• interviews with local health care providers, academic institutions
and economic development authorities
• a literature search
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Health Care Job Professions Studied
Professions Studied
RNs
Medical Records
Medical and Nurse Managers
Dental Hygienists
Radiologic Techs
Physical Therapists
Occupations Therapists
CT Scanning Techs
MRI Techs
Pharmacy Techs
Surgical Technologists
Phlebotomists
Northern Virginia Health Care Workforce Alliance
Nursing Aides
Dental Assistants
Home Health Aides
EMTs/Paramedics
LPNs
Physical Therapist Assistants
Respiratory Therapists
Medical and Lab Technologists
Speech Language Pathologists
Pharmacists
Medical and Lab Techs
Surgical Techs
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This Study Analyzes the Health Care Workforce Needs of Northern Virginia
Counties and Cities Represented in Study
Arlington County
Prince William County
City of Falls Church
Fairfax County
City of Alexandria
City of Manassas
Loudoun County
City of Fairfax
City of Manassas Park
The study attempts to
forecast the future health
care workforce needs of
Northern Virginia for 2010
and 2020.
Source: Northern Virginia Regional Commission Website
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Key Findings
• A shortage of health care workers exists in Northern Virginia.
• There is an estimated shortage of about 2,800 professionals in the 24
job categories.
• An average vacancy rate of about 10 percent exists.
• Without interventions, this vacancy rate is anticipated to grow to over
41 percent by 2020.
• The anticipated vacancy percentages are estimated to range from 27 to 56
percent depending on the profession.
• RNs dominate the current and projected shortage, with more than 1,000
current vacancies.
• Other hard hit professions are medical records and health information
technicians and imaging.
• The forecasted growth will continue to put immense strain on the
availability of health care workers through 2020. Without interventions,
vacancies will increase to 16,600 positions with a total demand of over
40,000 positions.
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Key Drivers: Growth Rate of over 33% by 2020 - Twice National Rate
Northern Virginia Population Growth Projections
2004
Arlington County
2010
2020
Projected Growth
Growth in %
(2004-2020)
(2004-2020)
197,858
214,177
244,421
46,562
23.5%
1,013,924
1,113,851
1,273,924
246,293
24.0%
Loudoun County
217,056
283,799
416,247
190,716
84.6%
Prince William County
326,480
368,031
449,362
122,882
37.6%
City of Alexandria
139,725
153,889
180,757
41,032
29.4%
City of Fairfax
22,862
23,050
23,367
505
2.2%
City of Falls Church
11,288
12,197
13,877
2,589
22.9%
City of Manassas
38,156
43,230
53,232
15,077
39.5%
City of Manassas Park
12,476
14,378
18,215
5,738
46.0%
2,002,008
2,226,602
2,673,401
671,393
33.5%
Fairfax County
Combined Northern Virginia
US
16.5%
Source: April 1, 2000 Census, July 1, 2001 Estimate, July 1, 2002 Estimate and Provisional 2003 based on Census figures as
provided by the Weldon Cooper Center, University of Virginia, February 2, 2004. Projections developed by calculating the
compound annual growth rate between the estimated 2002 and projected 2007 population by ethnicity data provided by
Solucient. Using the July 1, 2002 estimate data as a base year 2003 through 2020 were projected by applying the compound
annual growth rate to calculate the growth estimate.
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Other Key Drivers
Increased demand for services due to
the aging population

Inpatient Days by Age Cohort
Concurrent aging of the health care
workforce and resultant retirements

2,455
Inpatient Days Concentrated in the Over
65 population cohort per
National Data
Shortage of nursing and allied health
profession faculty, schools, and clinical
experience sites and the inability to find
replacements

Concurrent again of clinical faculty and
the resultant retirements

Difficulties with having market
competitive salaries for clinical faculty
660
407


All Ages
Under 65
Over 65
Inpatient days per 1,000 population,
2000
Nature of the profession
Low unemployment rates and high
cost of living

Northern Virginia Health Care Workforce Alliance
Sources: National Hospital Indicators Survey, 2003, CMS;
Indicators of Healthy Communities 2003—Northern Virginia
Region,
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Nearly Half of Health Care Employers Expanded Their Staffs and Found
Recruiting Somewhat Difficult
Ease of Recruiting Health Care
Personnel
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Very easy
Somewhat easy
Somewhat difficult
Very Difficult
Not sure/depends
Change in Size of the Workforce
Last 12 Months
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Increase
Stay the Same
Clinics
Dentists
Decrease
Hospitals
Not sure
Long-Term Care
Source: PwC Analysis of Northern Virginia Health Care Workforce Survey
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Hospitals Expect Biggest Future Difficulties in Hiring Staff
Nine hospitals reported
that they would grow their
health care workforce in
the year ahead
Two said it would stay the
same
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Number of responses
In the next 12 months, all
of the Northern Virginia
hospitals surveyed
expected to either retain
their current workforce or
hire additional workers.
Change in Workforce Needs for
Hospitals
10
0
Decreased
Stay the Same
Last 12 months
Number of responses
Increase
Next 12 months
Source: PwC Analysis of Northern Virginia Workforce Survey
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Estimated Demand for Health Care Workers Through 2020
Current
Occupation Title
Employment
Registered nurses (including CRNAs,
9,082
nurse practitioners, and nurse midwives)
Nursing aides, orderlies, certified nurse
assistants, attendants
3,245
Medical records and health info technicians
1,337
Dental assistants
1,110
Medical and nurse managers
1,054
Home health aides
1,080
Dental hygienists
750
Emergency medical technician/ paramedics
864
Radiologic technologists and technicians
723
Licensed practical nurses
1,111
Physical therapists
573
Physical therapist assistants
255
Occupational therapists
350
Respiratory therapists
233
CT scanning technologists
237
Medical and clinical lab technologists
397
MRI technologists
172
Speech language pathologists
122
Pharmacy technicians
149
Pharmacists
139
Surgical technologists
134
Medical and clinical lab technicians
228
Phlebotomists
156
Surgical technicians
33
Current
Shortage
Current
Demand
Projected Projected
Health Care Health Care
Percent
Workforce Workforce Shortage in
Needs by
Needs by Workforce
2010
2020
by 2020
1,038
10,120
12,056
15,432
41.1%
323
172
20
76
40
30
19
109
390
119
91
67
39
24
30
22
46
16
24
21
32
15
-
3,568
1,509
1,130
1,130
1,120
780
883
832
1,501
692
346
417
272
261
427
194
168
165
163
155
260
171
33
4,251
1,872
1,402
1,345
1,334
967
1,052
991
1,669
825
430
496
324
312
474
232
200
196
194
184
289
190
40
5,441
2,547
1,906
1,722
1,708
1,316
1,347
1,268
1,919
1,056
584
635
415
399
545
296
256
251
249
236
332
218
51
40.4%
47.5%
41.8%
38.8%
36.8%
43.0%
35.9%
43.0%
42.1%
45.7%
56.3%
44.9%
43.9%
40.6%
27.2%
41.9%
52.3%
40.6%
44.2%
43.2%
31.3%
28.4%
35.3%
Grand Total
23,534
2,763
26,297
Projected Health Care Workforce Vacancies from Current Employment Estimates
31,325
7,791
40,129
16,595
41.4%
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Retirement Rate Increases Will Contribute to Higher Shortages
• Average age of registered nurses in Virginia is over 45, according to the
Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
Northern
Virginia’s
Future Health
Care
Workforce
Needs
• The increasing age of the registered nurses is a concern because it is
anticipated that a greater than average number of registered nurses will be
retiring over the next several years.
• The physically demanding nature of the nursing occupation contributes to
the need to retire or change careers.
Registered Nurse Shortage
Assuming Increasing Retirement
Rates
Projected Shortage
Retirements
Graduates
Revised Shortage
2004
1,038
1,038
2010
2,974
2,412
2,640
2,746
2020
6,350
4,401
4,400
6,351
Retirements are increased by 1% of the labor force each year.
Source: Where We Stand: Projected Nurse Demand and Supply in Virginia, 2000-2020, Virginia Hospital and Healthcare
Association, April 2004
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Northern Virginia is Well-Suited to Be a Leading Innovator for Health Care
Workforce Solutions
Northern Virginia - positioned to be a leading innovator for health care
workforce solutions.

Experiencing an acute shortage in many of its professional and
occupational health care employment categories.


Northern Virginia’s demographics pose specific challenges and solutions.

Low unemployment rate

Highly educated

High levels of employment

High salaries (comparatively)

Ethnically diverse

Large percent of foreign born

Growing focus on life sciences

Large information technology focus
Creating an alliance of educators, providers, business, and economic
authorities.

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Workforce Best Practices
Education and Training

providing health care training to persons new to health care or
encouraging advanced training to persons inside of health care. Most
programs achieve this through free training and education, paid training
and internship opportunities, and accelerated training programs.
• Recruitment

initiatives aimed at recruiting new workers into the field of health care.
Strategies include awareness programs, enhanced benefits, loan
forgiveness, increased marketing of health care careers, and flexible
work hours.
• Retention

Retention tools often include innovative benefits such as employee
driven scheduling, development of clinical specialist and manager
positions, market rate adjustments, career ladders, child care among
others.

Specific challenges are retaining the experienced employees who are
so important in training and mentoring the less experienced employees.
Without mentors, the less experienced professionals are apt to leave.
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