THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS (NBS) Press release January 2013 SOUTH SUDAN HIGH FREQUENCY SURVEY (SSHFS) 2013 The National Bureau of Statistics in collaboration with the World Bank is pleased to release further results for the Exchange Rate Survey, which is part of the South Sudan High Frequency Survey (see technical notes for more information). The survey uses handheld tablet computers to collect realtime data and is currently being piloted in Juba, Wau, Malakal and Rumbek. The results of the Exchange Rate Survey show the weekly average of buying price and selling price for Juba, Wau, Malakal, Rumbek, and South Sudan as a whole; that is, how many SSP are required on the black market to buy 100 USD (buying price), and how many SSP are obtained by selling 100 USD (selling price). Daily data are available on the NBS website. Official exchange rates are 296.23 SSP to buy 100 USD and 293.77 SSP obtained by selling 100 USD. Figure 1: Mean weekly exchange rate for South Sudan, SSP per 100 USD For South Sudan, the value is the mean of all results from all four states obtained on that date. The South Sudan average is calculated as the mean of the four exchange rates found in each town. Dashed lines indicate periods where one or more towns had missing data, and the country average was calculated as the mean exchange rates for those towns which had data. For further details please see the tabulated data on the NBS website. “Buying price” means amount required in SSP to purchase 100 USD. SSP/USD mean exchange rate, South Sudan 575.0 525.0 475.0 425.0 375.0 325.0 Buying price (official) Selling price (official) Buying price Selling price 28/01/13 14/01/13 31/12/12 17/12/12 03/12/12 19/11/12 05/11/12 22/10/12 08/10/12 24/09/12 10/09/12 27/08/12 13/08/12 30/07/12 16/07/12 02/07/12 18/06/12 04/06/12 21/05/12 275.0 Over the last four weeks, the weekly average price required to buy 100 USD has risen from 435 SSP to 439 SSP. This means the SSP has depreciated against the USD by 0.9%. The data for weekly average selling price show a similar trend: it has increased from 420 SSP to 425 SSP, constituting a depreciation of 1.2% over the same period. This is in contrast to the recent trend of gradual appreciation of the SSP against the USD. The pattern of the SSP falling in value compared to the US dollar was reversed in the middle of August, when the South Sudanese pound appreciated sharply. Since then, the SSP has been steadily appreciating against the USD. However this trend looks like it might be stabilising. In the capital, Juba, exchange rate patterns have been similar. They are graphed below. Anybody interested in seeing the data in closer detail is invited to visit the National Bureau of Statistics’ website, www.ssnbs.org. Figure 2: Mean weekly exchange rate for Juba, SSP per 100 USD SSP/USD mean exchange rate, Juba only 575.0 525.0 475.0 425.0 375.0 325.0 Buying price (Juba) Selling price (Juba) Buying price (official) 21/1/13 7/1/13 24/12/12 10/12/12 26/11/12 12/11/12 29/10/12 15/10/12 1/10/12 17/9/12 3/9/12 20/8/12 6/8/12 23/7/12 9/7/12 25/6/12 11/6/12 28/5/12 14/5/12 30/4/12 16/4/12 2/4/12 19/3/12 5/3/12 275.0 Selling price (official) Table 1: Weekly average exchange rate, SSP per 100 USD Malakal Wau Rumbek Juba Mean buying price Mean selling price Mean buying price Mean selling price Mean buying price Mean selling price Mean buying price Mean selling price 2 Jul 2012 532.0 504.0 497.1 461.4 525.0 502.5 512.5 504.3 Week beginning 9 Jul 2012 537.5 502.5 505.0 481.3 533.3 510.0 517.5 512.0 16 Jul 2012 552.0 524.0 495.0 475.0 539.5 513.8 541.7 533.3 23 Jul 2012 550.0 525.0 495.3 475.0 547.3 518.8 541.8 534.1 30 Jul 2012 546.7 530.0 519.0 487.0 544.6 537.9 6 Aug 2012 548.0 526.0 528.0 506.0 544.5 536.0 13 Aug 2012 540.0 510.0 507.5 497.4 467.5 459.4 20 Aug 2012 27 Aug 2012 515.0 472.5 473.6 450.4 498.4 469.3 455.3 447.3 3 Sep 2012 502.5 475.0 450.8 429.2 479.2 450.3 446.3 439.1 10 Sep 2012 468.0 402.0 430.0 410.0 463.3 437.5 447.2 439.0 17 Sep 2012 481.0 450.0 427.1 402.9 444.2 418.9 447.5 439.5 24 Sep 2012 467.0 450.0 433.2 411.8 445.7 425.7 448.0 439.8 1 Oct 2012 472.0 450.0 455.7 433.9 450.0 440.0 448.5 440.0 8 Oct 2012 465.0 443.0 455.4 433.5 456.4 420.9 442.5 434.5 15 Oct 2012 460.0 440.0 475.8 452.5 435.0 406.4 443.3 434.5 22 Oct 2012 29 Oct 2012 462.5 461.0 441.3 435.0 466.7 449.3 445.8 429.3 440.8 444.3 412.2 422.3 441.3 439.8 432.5 430.8 5 Nov 2012 460.0 433.0 459.1 438.2 437.1 420.0 435.8 427.0 12 Nov 2012 455.0 430.0 467.5 450.0 438.8 418.8 433.3 426.7 19 Nov 2012 448.0 419.0 478.6 457.9 439.2 417.7 440.6 426.1 26 Nov 2012 452.5 432.5 462.5 436.9 437.1 411.7 431.3 425.7 3 Dec 2012 450.0 430.0 442.5 422.5 427.5 410.0 450.0 430.0 430.0 405.0 442.5 420.0 427.7 422.3 426.7 422.0 10 Dec 2012 17 Dec 2012 24 Dec 2012 31 Dec 2012 430.0 420.0 440.0 418.6 445.0 420.0 425.5 420.0 7 Jan 2013 436.0 427.0 430.0 402.2 435.6 420.6 431.0 423.0 14 Jan 2013 432.0 422.0 420.0 400.0 435.6 419.4 430.0 422.5 21 Jan 2013 437.5 428.8 441.7 420.0 435.0 418.3 434.0 425.0 28 Jan 2013 440.0 430.0 450.0 427.5 436.3 420.0 430.0 422.5 For more information, please contact: David Chan Thiang Director of Economic Statistics National Bureau of Statistics Tel: +211955213923 E-mail: chandavidthiang@yahoo.com NBS website: www.ssnbs.org Technical notes Background information The Exchange Rate Survey is part of the High Frequency South Sudan Survey that uses tablet computers to collect real time data and is being piloted in Juba, Rumbek, Wau and Malakal from April 2012 to January 2013. The aim of the survey is to provide the Government of South Sudan with high frequency, high quality data on social, economic and security conditions in the country. The survey collects data on market prices, exchange rates and household welfare in these major towns. Market prices of key food items and fuel are collected several times per week, exchange rate information is collected every day, and data on household welfare, including hunger, security and government service delivery is collected on a monthly basis. The exchange rate of the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) against the US dollar (USD) is one of the major macroeconomic indicators of the economy. Though our target is the black market exchange rate, it is still important to be used by policymakers in decision-making by comparing it with the official exchange rate that is published by the Central Bank (Bank of South Sudan), commercial banks and FOREX bureaus. Enumerators only ask for prices as part of this survey; they neither buy nor sell currency. Definitions Exchange rate: The rate at which a country’s currency can be exchanged for another country’s currency. Black market exchange rate: An exchange rate for a currency that differs from the official exchange rate set by a government. Currency depreciation: A decline in the value of one currency relative to another currency. Depreciation occurs when, because of a change in exchange rates, a unit of one currency buys fewer units of another currency. Currency appreciation: An increase in the value of one currency relative to another currency. Appreciation occurs when, because of a change in exchange rates, a unit of one currency buys more units of another currency. Buying price: The rate at which an individual can buy dollars (sell pounds) from a currency trader. Selling price: The rate at which an individual can sell dollars (buy pounds) from a currency trader.