Iran Persian (Farsi-speaking) Core • Population 66,429,284 (July 2010 est.) - Persians 51% -Azeris (Turkic) 24% -Mazandarani 8% - Kurds 7% - Arabs 3% Ethnic Minorities Straddle Boundaries Azeris Kurds Arabs Baluchis Shi’a and Sunni Regions Shia – 89% Sunni– 9% The Creation of Modern Iran • Early in the nineteenth century, the Iranians began to face pressure from two great world powers, Russia and Britain. • Iran lost all its territories in the Caucasus to Russia. Then, in the second half of the century, Russia forced the Iranians to give up all claims to territories in Central Asia. • Britain twice landed troops in Iran to prevent the Iranians from reasserting a claim to portions of Afghanistan. • Under the Treaty of Paris in 1857, Iran surrendered to Britain all claims to territories in present-day Afghanistan. Creation of Modern Iran Russian Empire • In 1907, Britain and Russia agreed to divide Persia into spheres of influence. British occupy oil rich “Arabistan” • The Qajar Dynasty, which Ottoman Empire had ruled Persia since 1795, was weakened. Kuwait Afgh. British India Reza Shah, 1921 • Enlisted in Persian Cossack Brigade when 16. No formal education • Reza Shah emphasizes pre-Islamic imperial glories, Persian core. Takes family name of Pahlavi. • Nationalist but also modernizer, – Offends clerics • Retakes control of Arabistan from Britain, renames Khuzestan, 1925 • Renames Persia as Iran, 1935 Reza Khan Program • Secularization seizure of religious lands. • Replaces Sharia law with the French civil code • Adopted Western model for schools. The Rule of Reza Khan • Reza Shah imposed European dress on the population. He opened the schools to women and brought them into the work force. In 1936 he forcibly abolished the wearing of the veil. • When the clergy opposed his reforms, several religious leaders were jailed or sent into exile. In 1936, in one of the worst confrontations between the government and religious authorities, troops violated the sanctity of the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad, where worshipers had gathered to protest Reza Shah's reforms. Dozens of worshipers were killed and many injured. World War II • In the Second World War Reza Shah, sympathizing with the Germans, refused to allow the allies to pass through Iran to supply the Soviet Union with war materials. So the Allied forces occupied Iran in 1941 and • British and Soviets invade, force him into exile, 1941. Remained even after the war was over. • Install son Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as Shah • British reoccupy Khuzestan oil fields; • Soviets occupy Northwest Iran After World War II • Mahabad Republic under Soviet domination in Azeri/Kurdish region, 1945-46 • Truman threatened nuclear weapons use to force withdrawal of Soviet troops from NW Iran, 1946 •Britain controls Khuzestan oil fields Enter the U.S. • In 1947 Iran and the United States signed an agreement providing for military aid and for a United States military advisory mission to help train the Iranian army. Begins a long period of US influence in Iran. The Mossadeq Debacle • In the summer of 1952, a swell of nationalism forced the Shah to name a socialist, Mohammed Mossadeq, as prime minister. • Mossadeq nationalized the British oil interests in Iraq. • The administration of President Harry S Truman was sympathetic to Iran's nationalist aspirations. • Under the administration of President Dwight D. Eisenhower, however, the United States came to accept the view of the British government that no reasonable compromise with Mossadeq was possible and that, by working with the Tudeh, Mossadeq was making probable a communistinspired takeover. • In June 1953, the Eisenhower administration approved a British proposal for a joint AngloAmerican operation, code-named Operation Ajax, to overthrow Mossadeq. The Mossadeq Debacle • The plan initially seemed to have failed, the Shah fled the country. • CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt directs military coup, installs Shah as supreme leader. • The Shah returned to the country. Mossadeq was sentenced to three years' imprisonment for trying to overthrow the monarchy, but was subsequently allowed to remain under house arrest in his village outside Tehran until his death in 1967. Shah Reza Pahlavi • West sees as Shah as bulwark vs. Communism, Arab nationalism, Islamist fundamentalism • Emphasized glorious past, huge palaces, kleptocracy • U.S. sold nuclear technology to Shah Shah Mohammad Reza Reforms • Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi continued to make reforms similar to those institute before WWII by his father. • Many clerical leaders opposed land reform and the extension of suffrage to women. These leaders were also concerned about the extension of government and royal authority that the reforms implied. • In June 1963, Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini, a religious leader in Qom, was arrested and exiled after a fiery speech in which he directly attacked the shah. Shah Under Fire, 1970s • By the 1970’s, many Iranians, disillusioned with what they perceived to be an authoritarian and ineffective regime, formed a number of underground groups committed to armed struggle against the Shah’s regime. • There were two distinct revolutionary movements. – A religious movement demanding return to a society based on the Shari'ah and ulama administration. – The second was a liberal movement that wanted Westernization, greater democracy, economic freedom, and human rights. – These two groups gradually merged to form a unified front against the Shah’s government. The Shah’s Chief Opponents? 1. Oil field workers. 2. Students and other intellectuals. 3. Middle class businessmen. 4. Iranian nationalists. 5. Muslim clerics. Q6 The Revolution Comes • The spark that erupted into revolution came on January 9, 1978 when police opened fire on students in Qom protesting the visit of President Jimmy Carter to Iran and demanding that Ayatollah Khomeini be allowed to return to the country. 70 students were killed. • This set in motion a pattern of protestrepression that steadily destabilized the Shah's government and reduced its legitimacy in the eyes of both Iranians and the world. • On September 8, a day Iranians call "Black Friday," the Shah’s troops fired on a Tehran demonstration and killed several hundred people. • On September 9, the Shah declared martial law and imprisoned many opposition leaders. The Revolution Comes • Demonstrations continued to grow. On January 16, 1979, the Shah left Iran. Secular government under Bani Sadr takes over. • On February 1, Khomeini returned to Iran to a welcoming crowd of several million people. • On February 12, the secular Prime Minister fled. • On March 30 and 31, 1979, a national referendum was held to determine the kind of political system to be established. Over 98 percent voted in favor of an Islamic republic. • Khomeini proclaimed the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran on April 1, 1979. Reasons for the Fall of the Shah The Shah spent the oil profits for top of the line American military hardware. Little money to reinvest back into the Iranian economy. Religious leaders angry with the Shah for too much “Westernization.” Government corruption. The Shah’s constitutional violations of the basic human rights of his citizens. Ayatollah Khomeini (Ruled 1979-1989) 1902 – 1989. Islamic scholar (studied in Qom). Began to speak out against the Shah in the 1960s. Arrested and imprisoned several times by the Shah. Deported in 1964 to Iraq, then to France in 1978. Islamic Republic • Khomeini crushes pluralism, consolidates control, using U.S & Iraqi threats as pretext • Executes leftists, Kurds, Azeris, and People’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI) • Women’s rights restricted by religious militia Hostage Crisis, 1979-81 • In November 1979, mobs overran the American embassy, taking 52 American diplomats hostage. • Carter’s rescue raid fails to free hostages; they are released the moment Reagan is inaugurated in January 1981 • Turning point in U.S. Iran Relations: Crisis strengthened Iran & U.S. hardliners Carter Doctrine • Carter Doctrine 1980: “Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.” • Central Command created, draft registration initiated, psychological conditioning of Americans for possible Mideast war U.S. Central Command “American vital interests in the Central Region are long-standing. With over 65% of the world’s oil reserves located in the Gulf states of the region— from which the United States imports nearly 20% of its needs; Western Europe 43%; and Japan, 68%--the international community must have free and unfettered access to the region’s resources.” --General J. H. Binford Peay III, Central Command (1997) Cited in Blood and Oil by Michael Klare (Metropolitan Books, 2004) Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88 • Iraq seized Khuzestan oil fields after Iranian Revolution, backed secessionist Arab rebels • Fought to bloody stalemate: Use of trenches, human wave tactics, chemical weapons. • Iraqi Shi’as fought for Iraq; Iranian Arabs fought for Iran Secretary Rumsfeld & Saddam Hussein: 1983 Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88 • U.S. supported Iraq with intelligence, naval escorts • Reagan also later supplied Hawk missiles and other military supplies to Iran in “Iran-Contra Scandal” (to illegally raise funds to fight Sandinistas in Nicaragua) • Kissinger: “bleed both sides” U.S. Naval War, 1987-88 • U.S. Navy escorts reflagged Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil tankers under Iranian missile threat • U.S. battles with Iranian gunboats; attacks oil platforms • “Accidentally” shot down Iranian civilian jetliner • Fear of Strait of Hormuz closure The Human Cost 375,000 Iraqi casualties Over 1,000,000 Iranian casualties Rafsanjani Presidency, 1989-97 • Ayatollah Akbar Rafsanjani not confrontational to West • Neutral in Gulf War, 1991; • Accelerated nuclear energy program • Rafsanjani is heavily associated with the Iranian business class. He is best described as a pragmatic conservative, who supports a centrist position domestically and a moderate position internationally, seeking to avoid conflict with the United States. Khatami Presidency, 1997-2005 • Youth supported “moderate” President Mohammad Khatami; • During his two terms as president, Khatami advocated freedom of expression, tolerance and civil society, constructive diplomatic relations with other states, and an economic policy that supported a free market and foreign investment. • Some people have criticized Khatami for being unsuccessful in achieving his goal of making Iran more free and democratic. In a 47-page "letter for the future", Khatami said his government had stood for noble principles, but had made mistakes and faced obstruction by hardline elements in the clerical establishment. Ahmadinejad, 2005 - Present • Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, son of a blacksmith, but attained PhD in civil engineering • Served in the Iran-Iraq war as a member of Army of the Guardians of the Revolution. • Was populist mayor of Tehran before being elected President with 62% of the vote • Built alliance of poor with religious conservatives • Conservatives gained electoral support after President Bush placed Iran in “Axis of Evil” Structure of the Iranian Government Assembly of Experts • The responsibilities of the Assembly of Experts are to appoint the Supreme Leader, monitor his performance and remove him if he is deemed incapable of fulfilling his duties. The assembly usually holds two sessions a year. • Although the body is officially based in the holy city of Qom, sessions are also held in Tehran and Mashhad. Direct elections for the 86 members of the current assembly are held every eight years and are next due in 2014. • Members are elected by the people for an eight year term. Only clerics can join the assembly and candidates for election are vetted by the Guardian Council. • The assembly is dominated by conservatives such as its chairman, Ayatollah Ali Meshkini. Former President Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who lost the 2005 presidential election to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is deputy chairman. The Supreme Leader • • • The role of Supreme Leader in the constitution is based on the ideas of Ayatollah Khomeini, who positioned the leader at the top of Iran's political power structure. The Supreme Leader, currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (since 1989), appoints the head of the judiciary, six of the members of the powerful Guardian Council, the commanders of all the armed forces, Friday prayer leaders and the head of radio and TV. He also confirms the president's election. The Leader is chosen by the clerics who make up the Assembly of Experts. Periodic tension between the office of the Leader and the office of the president has often been the source of political instability. It increased during former president reformist Mohammad Khatami's term in office - a reflection of the deeper tensions between religious rule and the democratic aspirations of many Iranians. Khamenei’s Philosophy • Khamenei is consistent in his opposition to the United States which is a theme of his speeches no matter whether the topic is foreign policy, agriculture or education. • He has declared that it is "clear that conflict and confrontation between" the Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S. "is something natural and unavoidable" since the United States "is trying to establish a global dictatorship and further its own interests by dominating other nations and trampling on their rights." Signs of Fractures within the Clergy • Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently spent 10 days in the seminary city of Qom trying to bridge differences among clerics after the worst unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. • Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters in Iran, supported President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after his disputed election victory in June 2009 and dismissed claims of widespread vote fraud. But many senior clerics in Qom didn't side with Ahmadinejad and have increasingly adopted a critical language against the government. • Some experts on Iranian affairs believe the 71-year-old Khamenei may be trying to pave the way for his hard-line son, Mojtaba, to one day take over at the pinnacle of Iran's ruling system. • Such a succession would further alienate Iran's moderate voices. The younger Khamenei is considered a guiding force for the vast paramilitary network, known as the Basij, used to crush opposition demonstrations and bully reformist leaders. Signs of Fracture within the Clergy • In recent weeks, authorities have blocked the websites of at least three senior reform-minded clerics to limit their access to the public and supporters. • Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi, one of the leading religious scholars in Qom, accused Ahmadinejad's government last month of lying about the country's economic situation. • "Statistics about reducing inflation are constantly released but contradict what the people see by their own eyes," Shirazi was quoted by the media as saying. "When state statistics don't correspond with reality, people lose confidence in government." • The Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who died last December, spent years under house arrest after falling out with Khomeini. Last year, he decried the "despotic treatment" of protesters at the hand of the Islamic leadership and accused ruling clerics of committing "crimes ... in name of Islam." Guardian Council • This is the most influential body in Iran and is currently controlled by conservatives. It consists of six theologians appointed by the Supreme Leader and six jurists nominated by the judiciary and approved by parliament. • Members are elected for six years on a phased basis, so that half the membership changes every three years. • The council has to approve all bills passed by parliament and has the power to veto them if it considers them inconsistent with the constitution and Islamic law. The council can also bar candidates from standing in elections to parliament, the presidency and the Assembly of Experts. • Reformist attempts to reduce the council's vetting powers have proved unsuccessful and the council banned all but six of more than 1,000 hopefuls in the 2005 Presidential elections. • Two more, both reformists, were permitted to stand after the Supreme Leader intervened. All the female candidates were blocked from standing. Expediency Council • The Council is an advisory body for the Leader with an ultimate adjudicating power in disputes over legislation between the parliament and the Guardian Council. The Supreme Leader appoints its members (25-30), who are prominent religious, social and political figures. • In October 2005, the Supreme Leader gave the Expediency Council "supervisory" powers over all branches of government – delegating some of his own authority as is permitted in the constitution. • It is not clear exactly how much this will affect the Council's influence, although observers say it is likely to strengthen the position of its present chairman, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was defeated in the 2005 presidential elections by Mahmoud Amadinejad. The President • The president is elected for four years and can serve no more than two consecutive terms. The constitution describes him as the second-highest ranking official in the country. He is head of the executive branch and is responsible for ensuring the constitution is implemented. • In practice, however, presidential powers are circumscribed by the clerics and conservatives in Iran's power structure, and by the authority of the Supreme Leader. It is the Supreme Leader, not the president, who controls the armed forces and makes decisions on security, defense and major foreign policy issues. • All presidential candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council, which banned hundreds of hopefuls from standing in the 2005 elections. • Conservative Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became president in 2005 after he defeated former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in a second round run-off poll. Mr Rafsanjani complained of an "illegal" campaign to discredit him. Mr Ahmadinejad is Iran's first president since 1981 who is not a cleric. Ahmadinejad was re-elected in June 2009. • Ahmadinejad has tried to expand his influence into key roles, such as foreign policy, which has been the sole domain of the ruling clerics. He also has forged close ties with the ultra-powerful Revolutionary Guard, which has a hand in everything from the country's nuclear program to commercial banking. Parliament • The 290 members of the Majlis, or parliament, are elected by popular vote every four years. The parliament has the power to introduce and pass laws, as well as to summon and impeach ministers or the president. • However, all Majlis bills have to be approved by the conservative Guardian Council. • The first reformist majority was elected in 2000, but this was overturned four years later in elections in 2004. Many reformist candidates were banned from standing. • Elections in April 2008 resulted in conservative victory because many reformers were not allowed to run. Conservatives/Islamists won 167 seats, reformers 39, independents 74, religious minorities 5, others 5. Oil-Based Economy • • • • 10% of world reserves (2nd to Saudi Arabia) Provides 85% of government revenues Most oil is in SW, in Arab minority region of Khuzestan Other parts of the economy lagging: unemployment now stands at around 14%. 18% of people below poverty line. • Economic inefficiency and insufficient investment - both foreign and domestic - have prompted an increasing number of Iranians to seek employment overseas, resulting in significant "brain drain." British Take Oil In Arab Region, 1908 • British had engineered “protectorate” status for “Arabistan” region in SW Persia, 1897 • Oil discovered by British in Arabistan, 1908 • Start of Anglo-Persian Oil-the future British Petroleum (BP) • British and Russians occupy Persia during World War I Ethnic Groups & Energy Resources Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx xxxxxx Effects of Sanctions on Iran • Banking: The fourth rounds of UN sanctions, enacted on 09 June 2010, are designed to target Iran’s financial sectors and make it difficult to transfer and secure currency. The United States augmented the sanctions with additional financial and travel restrictions on eight of Iran’s top government officials in an executive order signed on 29 September. • Oil and Gasoline Production: Oil production is also under scrutiny. Iran’s daily production has already fallen from an average of 4.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to 3.7 million barrels per day, though Iranian oil minister Masoud Mir-Kazemi claimed that the sanctions are having “no impact at all on production, not only for crude oil, but not even for gasoline.” Effects of Sanction on Iran • Foreign Investment: Several major investors in Iran have already begun to cut back or completely shut down their operations in Iran due to the difficulties of operating under the new restrictions. Statoil, Eni, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Inpex all agreed to shut down their operations in Iran and pull investments to avoid falling under the U.S. sanctions. Several other major companies, including India’s Reliance, Kuwait’s Independent Petroleum Group, Russia’s Lukoil, and Turkey’s Tupras all agreed to halt sales of refined petroleum to Iran, in accordance with new sanctions enacted this year. Japan stated on 03 September 2010 that all new oil and gas investment in Iran had been suspended. • The main reason for the effectiveness of the latest round of sanctions is increased support for the sanctions by most major European countries, allowing the United States to enforce unilateral sanctions against energy investments in Iran. While the laws have been on the books since the mid 1990s, the U.S. has previously lacked the support necessary to enforce them.