ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology
Course Overview & Logistics
Wed – 20 Aug 2014
Introductions…
Office:
Email:
Phone:
NSSTC 3088
ryan.wade@uah.edu
961-7847 (office phone)
Office Hours:
MWF: 8:00am – 9:00am, 10:15am – 11:00am
T,Th: 8:00am – 9:00am, 1:00pm – 2:00pm
Class Schedule: 9:10 – 10:05am Monday, Wednesday & Friday
Monday & Wednesday – Mostly lecture, current weather
discussion
Fridays – “Lab” period, current weather discussion, some lecture
What is Synoptic Meteorology?
Definition: Synoptic meteorology is the study of the structure
and evolution of weather systems on spatial scales of order
1000+ km
Synoptic means “view together” or “view at a common point.”
In this course, you’ll learn to view different parameters of the
atmosphere together in order to examine/analyze the weather.
What do YOU expect to get out of this course?
This course will help you to begin thinking like a meteorologist.
BUT…this is not a weather forecasting course…instead you’ll
begin to learn how the weather “works.”
Educational Goals
By the end of this course, hopefully, you will be proficient in:
• Meteorological analysis of weather patterns
• Meteorological interpretation of atmospheric processes
on weather maps based on application of dynamic and
thermodynamic theory
• Projecting future trends of common atmospheric
variables from an accurate continuity and analysis
diagnosis
• Verbal and written communication of weather patterns,
processes, and forecasts based on solid meteorological
reasoning
• Time management skills (hopefully you are already
proficient in this!)
Example – Synoptic Scale Chart
What are some important features this analysis shows us?
Materials
Required Textbook: Midlatitude Synoptic Meteorology: Dynamics, Analysis
and Forecasting by Gary Lackmann
Other Books: Weather Analysis by Djuric
An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology by Holton
Atmospheric Science by Wallace & Hobbs
Other Materials: Pencils, colored pencils, markers and a ruler
Have these items by next Friday!
• Numerous materials will also be handed out, emailed to you, or posted
online during the semester.
• It is recommended you acquire a binder to keep track and stay organized!
• Lecture will be given through a combo of PowerPoint presentations and
board notes.
• Notes will typically be posted to the web just prior to class (hopefully!)
• http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/rwade/courses/
Grading
Standard grading scale will be used
A: 90-100
B: 80-89
C: 70-79
D: 60-69
F: ≤ 59
Grading will be determined as follows:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Exam 1
Exam 2
Final Exam
Wx Briefings/Map Discussions
Homework/Labs/Analyses
Quizzes/Participation
15%
15%
20%
20%
20%
10%
100%
We will have weekly to bi-weekly quizzes.
Quizzes will cover mostly reading assignments
and some previously covered lecture material.
Friday “Lab”
• This is only a 3 credit hour course, without a designated lab period
• Decided to sacrifice some lecture on Friday to have a lab
– Difficult to perform some tasks in a synoptic course without a lab
– This doesn’t mean we’ll never have lecture on a Friday though!
• Hands on instruction and assignments will be provided during lab
periods
• These assignments/topics will not always relate to what we are doing
in class
– Build a foundation to help you analyze the weather
• This is when you’ll typically use the colored pencils, etc… bring these
and the other items with you every Friday
• Lab assignments are always due by the next class period unless
otherwise stated!!
Assignments
**Lab assignments are always due the next class period (usually
Monday), unless otherwise stated
**Actual homework assignments are due one week from the date they
are handed out, unless otherwise stated
**Any assignment turned in late are subject to a 10% deduction in grade
per day late
Forecast “Contest”
• Begins after the mid-term
• Graded forecast “contest” where you will forecast common
meteorological variables for a predetermined location 3 times a week
(i.e., each class period)
• Develop short-range (12, 24, and 36 hr) forecast based on the 12Z
run of the GFS
• You are competing against the GFS MOS, where the MOS score is
always set to 75%
• Your goal is to beat MOS, otherwise, what’s the point in human
forecasting and thus, jobs at the NWS?
• You will forecast for a different location each week, known as the
“forecast city”
• Grading information can be found at the end of the syllabus
• Forecast forms are due every class day by 5pm LST and you are
required to submit your forecast digitally (i.e., via email in the
spreadsheet provided)
What is MOS?
• Model Output Statistics
• Technique used to objectively interpret numerical
model output and produce site-specific guidance
• http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.php
Student Skill Score Performance
Quotes from Dr. Keith Blackwell (Univ. South AL Synoptic Professor)
• Below 70%
Below Average (“Student is either illiterate, unconscious,
or has no brain-wave activity; student may be forecasting with a weather
rock or flipping a coin.”)
• 70-<80%
Average Weather Person (“Student can read, is alive and
breathing, and is subconsciously going through the motions of filling out the
forecast form.”)
• 80-<90%
Skilled Forecaster/Meteorologist “capable of adding
significant value to forecasts.”
• 90% or above Top-Notch Professional Forecaster/Meteorologist
“capable of reliable, expert performance in tough weather situations.”
• Total points possible will fluctuate day to day, depending on the accuracy of
the model in different forecast situations. Generally, GFS MOS will perform
worse on active weather days and better on inactive weather days.
• Model error points will be largest on active weather days; therefore, the total
points possible on these days will be larger
• Students who blindly follow the forecast guidance will be doing “C” work
(75% of possible points). No critical thinking or meteorological expertise is
required when a student makes the model forecast their own.
Weather Briefings
• Each of you will give THREE 10-13 minute weather briefings/map
discussions, beginning the second half of the course (i.e., after mid-term)
• 5-10 minute question/answer session and discussion will be conducted after
the briefing between the briefer, instructor, and the remainder of the class…
if you are NOT briefing, you are expected to participate
• These discussions will give you the opportunity to show what you know
about the weather and will go hand in hand with the scientific concepts you
have learned in class
• Briefings are 20% of your grade (1st briefing = 5%; 2nd briefing = 15%)
• By the time of your 2nd briefing, you should be able to give an
intelligent discussion about the current weather and make a
reasonable, well thought out, forecast for a given location.
• More details will be given later
Course Objectives
• Understand conceptual models and atmospheric processes as
applied to synoptic-scale weather systems
– Conceptual understanding of quasi-geostrophic theory as applied to
midlatitude atmosphere
– Solid understanding of physical processes important to synoptic-scale
phenomena (jet streams, midlatitude cyclones, fronts, Rossby waves,
etc.)
– Conceptual understanding of the ageostrophic wind equation as
applied to midlatitude atmosphere
Course Objectives
• Develop weather analysis skills
– Be able to construct and defend a respectable manual surface or
upper-air map analysis given a set of meteorological observations
– Produce and defend a well-reasoned weather forecast
– Understand importance of observational analysis, and numerical and
conceptual models in weather analysis and forecasting
Quick Map Introduction & What’s
Down the Road
What type of map is this? What important information is shown?
Notice how the winds flow with respect to
the isoheights.
What is this?
What happened
here?
Heavy rain is forecasted for the TN Valley
Relate the location of the upper-level low and it’s associated
vorticity to our forecast.
Much more goes into making a local forecast, but what’s
happening at 500 mb can tell you a lot and is very important
on the synoptic scale!
Corresponding 60-hour 300mb forecast chart. What does this chart show?
The information on this chart (jet level dynamics) will later be important for the
ageostrophic wind equation. In general, lift/vertical motion is enhanced in the
right-rear and left-front quadrants of jets
Notice in this case, the upper-level low is vertically stacked. This isn’t always
the case, and in fact, is not good for a developing cyclone. Want to see a
westward tilt with height for a developing cyclone – more on this later
Later forecast… the previous shortwave that was affecting us is forecasted to move into
New England
Highly amplified trough pattern has developed over the mid-US
Check out the air pouring out of Canada  POLAR air mass
What do would you expect after the trough passes the TN Valley?
Now… notice how there is a westward tilt with height of the cyclone
Also, very strong cold air advection.
500 mb forecast
Without knowing anything else, what would you expect the
forecast to say in Huntsville
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50
Let’s Check Out The Current
Forecast
NCEP - Model Analysis and Guidance
Huntsville Forecast - NWS