Policies toward sustainable
regional development:
Integrated modelling of economy, mobility and air pollution
Paul Safonov, Vincent Favrel, and Walter Hecq
Centre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE)
Université Libre de Bruxelles - Free University of Brussels (ULB)
Plan








Four Stage Transport Model
TRIPS - Professional Transport Planning Tool
A Case Study: Aim of the Project
System of Models
Data Sources and Availability
Software Solutions
Scenarios and Simulations
Policy Recommendations
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Four-stage transport model
Trip
generation
Trip
Distribution
Modal
Choice
Assignment
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TRIPS software modules
TRIPS is a set of inter-related modules as listed below. These contain the ‘building
blocks’ of a model, enabling the user to access the features and facilities to build
models which meet individual requirements.
 Highway Assessment
 Public Transport Assignment
 Demand Modeling
 Matrix Estimation
 TRIPS Graphics
 TRIPS Manager - Graphical Project Management Tool
Data Processing TRIPS and Showman Plus

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A Case Study: Aim of the Project
 Analysis of the environmental impacts of mobility
in the Brussels-Capital region, induced by major regional
policy options:

Environmental impacts of mobility: emissions of air
pollutants, which have effect at local level (CO, PM), regional level
(NOX, VOC, SO2), and global level - the contribution of the
Brussels region to greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) emissions

Policy options: offices' and housing relocation,
transportation network development, modal shift,
[parking, pricing/taxation, and other urban policies;]
Tool: System of Socio-Economic/Mobility/Emissions models
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System of Models
 Population and Employment dynamics spatial
forecasts (per sector of activity) in Brussels
 Main Economic sectors development model
 Economic scenarios are used to estimate the demand in buildings
(including offices) and workers in each economic sector.
 Office stock dynamics (supply): spatial econometric models
 Mobility model: O/D matrices generation and static assignment
for public and private transport.
 Air pollution: “vehicles-emissions” & "non renewable fuel
consumption" models (new European/Belgian regulations on vehicles)
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Structure of the Integrated Model
Employment dynamics
Population dynamics
Office Stock
dynamics
(Re) Location
of housholds
(Re) Location
of offices
Mobility Scenarios
(O/D matrices)
Transport Policy
Assignment Model:
modal choice
(TRIPS)
• Transport network development
• Fleet Composition
• Taxation and Pricing
• Parking, etc
Emissions Model:
GHG / Local pollutants
Emissions/ Immissions Model
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Economic and demographic forecasts
 Macro-economic development indicators by main sectors of
activities and respective demand for labor resources;
 General birth rate and population dynamics;
 Main trends and shifts in population and labor resources
structure (e.g. from workers to executives, from permanent
residents to foreigners and migrants, from town to periphery,
growth of the share of middle-age (working) population, etc.);
 Spatial distribution of the population in the region,
according to different assumptions on the urban policy and
economic scenarios.
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Office relocation modeling
 Tendencies in Brussels office stock dynamics
 Parking policy
 Early consideration of environmental implications in the
urban planning process
 Increasing urban densities around points of high
accessibility
 Integrating land use and transport planning encouraging
mixed land use schemes
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Software Solutions

General Interface for the System of Models:
Visual-Basic, TRIPS Command Language (TCL)

Demographic forecasts, Economic activities model:
TCL, Excel, STATISTICA

Urban development, O/D matrices generation:
TRIPS Demand Modelling Module

Assignment: TRIPS Highway Assessment and
Public Transport Assessment Modules

Emissions: Visual-Basic, Excel
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Data Sources and Availability
 National Statistical Institute (INS/NIS)
 Administration of the Brussels-Capital Region:
 Brussels Office Survey (Jones Lang Wootton reports)
 Review of Office Property
 Regional Mobility Plan (Plan “IRIS”)
 Regional Plan of Land Use (P.R.A.S.)
 Regional Development Plan (P.R.D.)
 Sustainable Mobility Information System (SMIS)
A Meta-data base (CEESE-ULB)
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Area under study
BCR
Legend:
Number of district (1987)
Brussels-Europe area: districts 20-22, 43-45, 47
"Midi" (south central) area: districts 11, 12, 29
"Nord" (north central) area: districts 17, 18, 39
"Pentagone" (central) area: districts 1-9
Ring road
Administrative border of the the Brussels-Capital Region
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Share of Brussels in the National Economy
1980
1990
1997
Share of Brussels in the Gross
National Product
15.5%
13.4%
12.6%
Part of Brussels in the global
amount of taxable revenue of
individuals of the country
11.6%
9.8%
9.2%
Source: Duchâteau (1998), and own calculations, based on data base of Banque Nationale ,1999
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Classification of sectors of activities (NACE 1)
0. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery
1. Energy and Water
2. Extraction and Transformation of minerals, Chemical Industry
3. Metallurgy, Manufacturing of Precise Mechanics
4. Other Manufacturing Industries
5. Construction and Civil Engineering,
6. Commerce, Restaurants, Accommodation, Reparations
7. Transport and Communications
8. Credit Institutions, Insurance, Trade
9. Other services
Source: Kumps, A.-M., Taymans, M (1995) Développment du secteur tertiaire
de la Région de Bruxelles-Capitale, N 27, IRIS Editions, BRES, Bruxelles.
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Dynamics of mobility in the Brussels-Capital Region
1985-1998
Motorway
Regional network
Local network
Total
Traffic index (base 100 in 1985)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Calculated from: Recenment de la Circulation, Ministere des Communications et del'infrastructure, 1998.
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Composition of the Belgian private vehicle fleet in
1991
Vehicles categories
Number of cars, 1991
Share (%)
Petrol Engines
2,797,526
(71.57)
< 1.4 l
1.4-2.0 l
>2.0 l
1,405,917
1,186,085
205,524
(35.97)
(30.34)
(5.26)
Diesel Engines
1,089,055
(27.86)
795,512
293,543
(20.35)
(7.51)
LPG Engines
22,484
(0.58)
Conventional [<1990]
91/441/EEC [1991-1996]
94/12/ECE [>1997]
20,085
2,399
0
(0.51)
(0.06)
(0.00)
3,909,065
(100.00)
<2l
>2l
Total fleet
Calculation based on FIGAZ (1996).
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 255 zones
 2,545 nodes
 8,366 links
Road Network in
the Brussels Area
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Arts Loi
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Origin-Destination Matrix and Traffic Assignment
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

1991 : 1,9 mln cars
3 mln veh*km
1996: 2,15 mln cars
(+11%)
3,6 mln veh*km (+20%)
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Emission Calculation
ET i  ET i , hot  ET i , cold ,
ETi   EFi , j ,hot ( S k )  VM j ,k ,hot   EFi , j ,cold ( S k )  VM j ,k ,cold ,
j
k
j
k
where:
i
j
k
ETi
ETi,hot
ETi,cold
EFi,j,hot
pollutant index;
vehicle category index;
link index;
emission of pollutant i due to road traffic;
emission of pollutant i due to road traffic with hot engines;
emission of pollutant i due to road traffic whit cold engines;
emission factor of pollutant i for vehicle category j driven with hot
engines;
EFi,j,cold emission factor of pollutant i for vehicle category j driven with cold
engines;
Sk
average speed on the link k;
VMj,k,hot vehicle mileage for vehicle category j driven on link k with hot engines;
VMj,k,cold
vehicle mileage for vehicle category j driven on link k with cold
engines.
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Emission Functions
80
60
Hot Emissions
40
PM
0.20
g/km
g/km
0.25
CO
Cold Start Emissions
20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0
0.00
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
10
30
50
70
90
110
Speed
5
g/km
g/km
3
2
1
0
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
150
CO2
10
30
50
70
90
110
Speed
8
0.25
g/km
g/km
150
SO2
0.20
6
2
130
Speed
VOC
4
150
Speed
NOx
4
130
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
10
30
Speed
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50
70
90
110
130
150
Speed
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Emission
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)
1991: 71 ton
1996: 61 ton (-15%)
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Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Emission
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)
1991: 4 ton
1996: 4,36 ton (+8%)
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Considerations for Scenarios


Mobility tendencies in the Region

Developments of the Transportation Network

Dynamics of Vehicle Composition
Modal Choice Patterns
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Congestion Level
(Saturation Index = Number of Cars/Link Capacity)
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)
1991
2005
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Origin-Destination Matrix and Traffic Assignment
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario 2005: “Sust.Transport” Scenario
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Carbon Dioxide CO2 Emissions
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)
2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario 2005: “Sustainable Transport” Scenario
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Methane (CH4) Emissions
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)
2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario 2005: “Sustainable Transport” Scenario
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Sulfur Dioxide (S02) Emissions
Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)
2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario 2005: “Sustainable Transport” Scenario
Zaventem
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Comparative analysis of scenarios:
totals relative dynamics (1991 = 100%)
Year
Traffic
Intensity
Air Pollutants Emission
Veh*km CO2
1991
1996
2005 (S1)
2005 (S2)
100
120
163
124
100
116
179
117
Fuel Consumption
CH4
NOx
VOC
CO
PM
SO2 Petrol Diesel LPG
100
87
91
60
100
86
80
60
100
85
68
40
100
86
75
41
100
99
129
87
100
109
94
69
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100
103
154
98
100
160
255
180
100
57
470
346
Policy Recommendations

Development of the mixed land-use schemes, favouring the
localisation of offices and residential areas close to the accessibility
points;

Improvement of the links in public transports between the city centre
and the suburbs (suburban metro/suburban express rail system - RER);

Introduction of the parking control, which would favour the switch
from roads to public transport.

Decrease of automobile traffic in residential areas and limitation of the
congestion in the city centre by means of traffic-flow control measures;

Improvement of the travel conditions of pedestrians and cyclists.

Stimulation of the use of LPG-driven and electric vehicles.
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