Electoral Politics
Voters and Party Choice
How do voters decide?
‘Attitudes and Electoral Behaviour’ Dalton, 2006
• Electoral conflict ultimately revolves around the
issues and candidates of the campaign.
• They represent the dynamic aspect of electoral
politics.
• As the electoral impact of long-term partisan
attachments decreases, there is a corresponding
increase in the influence of issue opinions on voting
choice. (Franklin, Mackie and Valen, 1992)
• There has been a rise in candidate-centred choices
in America, and greater role of candidate images.
(Wattenberg, 1992)
Principles of Issue Voting
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Linked to political sophistication of the electorate.
Theoretically, issue voting is defining feature of a sophisticated, rational
electorate.
In reality, sceptics have seen voters as lacking knowledge, voting on the basis of
ill-informed/incorrect beliefs.
Empirical studies criticize the electorate’s ability to make informed decisions.
Campbell et al, 1960: 3 requirements for meaningful issue voting:
– Citizen should be interested in issue.
– Should hold opinion on issue.
– Should know the party or candidate positions on the issue.
Voters fail to meet these criteria; 1/3rd or less possible issue voters.
Key, 1966: citizens are moved by concern about central and relevant questions
of public policy, government performance, executive personality.
Issue publics - groups of people interested in a specific issue.
Type of Issue
Time Frame
Position
Performance
Retrospective
Policy Appraisal
Performance
Evaluation
Attribute
Attribute Voting
Prospective
Policy Mandate
Anticipatory
Judgement
Position Issues and the Vote
• Increased levels of policy-based voting in modern
party systems.
• Advanced industrialism has not meant end of policy
differences within societies: role of economics on
voting behaviour.
• Issue controversies are born from changing focus of
political concern: foreign policy, nuclear energy,
women’s rights, environmental protection.
• Can provide a general measure of impact of policy
preferences on voting behaviour by examining
relationship between Left/Right attitudes and vote.
Traditional economic issues of Old Politics
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Support for social services, government measures to lessen income
inequality, manage economy display strong relationship with voting
preferences.
Large issues publics and political parties have clear policy positions on
government’s role in economy.
New Politics Issues
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Environment
Gender
Foreign Policy
Performance Issues and the Vote
• Performance based voting offers voters a shortcut for
ensuring that unsuccessful policies are dropped and
successful policies continued.
• Importance of macroeconomics on micropolitics.
• State of the economy can be so important in some
elections that it overrides other policy considerations.
Candidate Images and the Vote
• Some consider voting on basis of personality
characteristics as ‘irrational’.
• “Candidate assessments actually concentrate on
instrumental concerns about how a candidate would
conduct governmental affairs.”
• US in lead of candidate-centered electoral politics.
• Parliamentary systems invoke less impact of
candidate image on voting patterns, however impact
is rising.
• French have long valued the importance of string
political leader, institutionalised in the directly elected
presidency.
Citizen Politics and Voting Behaviour
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Decline in long-term determinants of voting choice.
Influence of social class on voting preferences has declined, as has
impact of religion, residence and other social characteristics.
Dealignment has decreased effect of party attachments on voting
decisions.
This has been counterbalanced by a growth in short-term attitudes:
issue opinions and candidate images.
Modern electorate more politically sophisticated and interested, greater
availability of political information, allows people to reach their own
voting decisions.
Changing impact of economy on the vote.
New style of citizen politics is characterised by a greater diversity of
voting patterns. This represents a major departure from the structured
partisan politics of the past.
‘Voting: Choice, Conditioning and
Constraint’ Miller and Niemi
Short-Term Factors
• Unpredictable events
• Changes of leaders
• Candidate effects
• Campaign effects
• New and salient issues
Conditioning
• Media
• Sociogeographic context
Constraints
• Number and nature of Available options
• Impact of electoral system on voters’ choice:
– Tactical voting and demobilisation undxer
majoritarian systems.
– Ticket-splitting in multiple vote systems
– Dual party identities in multi-level systems.