Dulles Metro Extension
Phase I: Tyson’s Corner
Martene Bryan
Luis Serna
Matt Zarit
Dulles Metro Extension
Phase I: Tyson’s Corner
Introduction
 Cost
 Benefits
 Sensitivity Analysis
 Conclusion

Washington Metropolitan Area
Transit Authority (WMATA)
WMATA was created by an
Interstate Compact to plan,
develop, build, finance and
operate transportation system
in the region.
1967
First phase of Metrorail
began operation
1976
1969
Construction begins
2001
Original 103-mile network is
completed
Source: http://wmata.com/about/metrofacts.pdf
The Current Metrorail
System
Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm
Metrorail is a crucial part of
the DC region
Serves 3.5 million people
 195 million trips were taken in 2005



Creating $522 million in passenger
revenue
According to WMATA, 42% of those
working in the center core, which
includes DC and parts of Arlington
County use mass transit.
Source: http://wmata.com/about/metrofacts.pdf
WMATA receives funding
from various sources in the
region
D.C
Montgomery
Prince George's
Alexandria
Rail
Base Allocation
Max Fare Subsidy
Total
Percentage of Total
Regional Subsidy
$
$
44,198,345
258,595
44,456,940
$
34.03%
Arlington
Base Allocation
Max Fare Subsidy
Total
Percentage of Total
Regional Subsidy
$
23,290,589
2,070,527
25,361,116
12,480,986
71,711
$ 12,552,697.00
10%
$
19.41%
Fairfax City
$
$
$
$
22,136,308
903,504
23,039,812
0%
$
17.64%
Fairfax County
380,370
39,559
419,929.00
$
$
17,637,677
950,055
$ 18,587,732.00
14%
5,770,593
103,721
5,874,314
4.50%
Falls Church
$
$
342,739
11,953
354,692.00
0.27%
Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm
Metrorail serves a
1,500 square-mile area
Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm
The Dulles Metro Extension will
connect the western part of Fairfax
County and Loudoun County to the
rail system

23 miles extension would extend
from West Falls Church Metro
station to a new line to the airport in
two phases.

Our analysis focuses on Phase I of
construction to Tyson’s Corner, VA
Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm
The New Metrorail System
Source:http://www.dullesmetro.com/Dec8/project_overview/images/5_systemMap.jpg
Partners of Phase I








WMATA
Virginia Department of Rail and Public
Transportation
Dulles Transit Partners, LLC
Federal Transit Administration
Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority
Virginia Department of Transportation
Fairfax County
Loudoun County
Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/about/partners.cfm
Phase I: Silver Line
Design Build Agreement
May
2006
Construction Starts
December
2006
October
2006
Full Funding Agreement
2011
Revenue Operations Begins
Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm
Phase I: Tyson’s Corner
Source:http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/tysons_map_large_mar06.pdf
Costs
Capital costs
 Operating costs
 Funding
 Government revenue lost
 Lack of consistent funding

Projected Capital Costs
(in millions)
FTA Standard Cost
Category
Total
2004
Guideway and Track
Elements
$ 362.80 $ Stations, Stops,
Terminals, Intermodal $ 268.70 $ Yards, Shops,
Admin/Support
Facilities
$
57.20 $ Sitework and Special
Conditions
$
51.00 $ ROW, Land, Existing
Improvements
$
88.70 $ Systems
$ 172.70 $ Vehicles
$ 189.50 $ Soft Costs
$ 265.10 $ 9.40
Contingency
$
65.80 $ Total Project Costs
$ 1,521.50 $ 9.40
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$
-
$
-
$ 51.60 $ 88.50 $ 109.40 $ 93.90 $ 19.30 $
-
$ -
$
-
$
-
$ 25.30 $ 65.30 $ 80.70 $ 83.10 $ 14.30 $
-
$ -
$
-
$
-
$
-
$ -
$
-
$
-
$ 32.80 $ 18.20 $
-
$ -
$ $ 52.60
$ $ $ $ $ 24.10 $ 24.90
$ $ $ 24.10 $ 77.50
$
$
$
$
$
$
5.40 $ 13.90 $ 17.10 $ 14.70 $
36.10
24.40
1.60
38.40
6.10
221.70
$
$
$
$
$
$
33.50
18.10
39.60
12.70
289.80
$
$
$
$
$
$
6.10 $
-
$
-
$
-
43.10
26.60
46.20
16.30
339.40
$
$
$
$
$
$
44.40
21.80
42.00
16.80
316.70
$
$
$
$
$
$
27.40
102.60
35.60
13.80
219.10
$
$ $ $ $ $ 12.50 $ 6.30
$ 5.90 $ $ $ $ 18.40 $ 6.30
Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 8: Financial Analysis.” Final Environmental Impact Statement and
Section 4(f) Evaluation http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.
Projected Operating Costs
Projected at $47.47 million per year
 Assumption: 3.0% inflation

(in millions)
Year
Operating Costs
Year
Operating Costs
2011
47.47
2019
60.13
2012
48.89
2020
61.94
2013
50.36
2021
63.80
2014
51.87
2022
65.71
2015
53.43
2023
67.68
2016
55.03
2024
69.71
2017
56.68
2025
71.80
2018
58.38
Source: Federal Transit Administration. “Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – Extension to
Wiehle Avenue. Nov 2004. www.fta.dot.gov/documents/VA_Dulles_Ext_2006.doc.
Funding Sources
Percent of Total
Total Funds ($million)
Funding Source
5309 New Starts
Total Federal
$
$
760.5
760.5
50.0%
Virginia Transportation Act of 2000
Dulles Toll Road Revenues
Commonwealth of Virginia Bonds
Total State
$
$
$
$
74.3
161.2
145.0
380.5
25.0%
Dulles Rail Transportation Improvement District
Total Local
$
$
380.5
380.5
25.0%
Total Capital Costs
$
1,521.5
Source: Federal Transit Administration. “Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – Extension to
Wiehle Avenue. Nov 2004. www.fta.dot.gov/documents/VA_Dulles_Ext_2006.doc.
Federal Funding

Section 5309 Federal Grants
Program:
Designated for transit projects in
urban areas with a population over
50,000
 The federal money must be matched
by local and/or state funds

Source: NCDOT “Section 5309 Grant Program”
http://www.ncdot.org/transit/transitnet/PublicInfo/TransitFinance/Grants/5309.html.
State Funding
$74.3 million of taxpayer money
 Revenues from the Dulles Toll Road
are estimated to bring in $161.2
million
 $145 million in bonds

Source: Federal Transit Administration. “Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – Extension to Wiehle Avenue. Nov 2004.
www.fta.dot.gov/documents/VA_Dulles_Ext_2006.doc.
Local Funding

Fairfax County Transportation Improvement
District



Temporary tax area in Fairfax County and
the Town of Herndon on commercial and
industrial properties
Landowners will be charged between 22 and
29 cents for every $100 of assessed
property
Expected to produce $380.5 million
Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 8: Financial Analysis.” Final Environmental Impact Statement and
Section 4(f) Evaluation http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.
Lost Revenues
Increased use of public transit will
decrease the amount of cars on the
road
 Gas taxes:

Virginia: 18%
 District of Columbia: 20%
 Federal: 18%

Source: http://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspx & http://www.gaspricewatch.com/usgastaxes.asp
Lost Revenues
Estimated net reduction in vehicle
miles traveled: 251,600,000 in 2011
 Decreasing to 153,800,000 by 2025
 Assumptions:

20 miles per gallon
 2/3 of people get their gas in Virginia
 1/3 of people get their gas in D.C.

Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_10.pdf
Estimated Losses

Average losses per year
Virginia: $1,467,548
 District of Columbia: $405,400
 Federal government: $1,864,840

Total government loss from reduction in
revenues:
$3,737,788
Source: http://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspx
Other Funding Problem

No dedicated source of funding for
operating costs
Federal money cannot pay for
operating costs
 About half of operating costs are paid
for by fares, parking and advertising
 The shortfall is made up by affected
jurisdictions in Maryland, Virginia and
DC on a year-by-year basis

Source: Puentes, Robert. “Washington Metro: Deficits by Design.” The Brookings Institute June 2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/urban/publications/20040603_puentes.htm.
The Benefits of riding the
metro
 Commuter
Savings
 Social Benefits
 Jobs to the Region
To calculate commuter savings,
we used some assumptions




Each new rider would have driven
The avg. # of miles traveled per day
(20) – The distance from Tyson’s Corner
to L’Enfant
The avg. miles per gallon (20) – The
average between a 4 cylinder sedan and
an SUV
Opportunity Cost ($30.43/hour) – The
average wage in the DC Metro area
Sources: http://www.mapquest.com; http://www.toyota.com/4runner/specs.html;
http://www.toyota.com/images/vehicles/2007/camry/specs.pdf; Arlington VA June 2005 Employment & Wages Report
Assumptions for commuter savings are
based on the avg. # of miles traveled &
hours driven per year
Days in a Year
Weekend days In a year (For calendar 2006)
Holidays/Vacation
Total Commuting Days
Commute Hours Per Day
Miles Per day
Gallons of Gas Per Day @20 miles per gallon
Cost per gallon
Cost of gas per day
Assumption: Opportunity Cost/Hour
365
106
14
245
1
20
1.00
3.00
3.00
30.43
The average new metro rider
saves more then $10k/year in
driving cost
Opportunity Costs
Gas $
Total Monetary Costs
Extra Wear and Tear on Car per day@.445 per mile
Total Cost
Source: Metro Cost Caculator http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.
7,455.35
735.00
8,190.35
2,180.50
10,370.85
The metro costs to the average
new rider are considerably less
Total Commuting Days
Cost Per Day
Metro Cost per year
Avg vehicle cost per day
Total Costs
Source: Metro Fares & Hours: http://www.wmata.com/riding/hours_fares.cfm
245
9.25
2266.25
327.08
2,593.33
The total benefit for each
commuter in saved driving cost
is enormous
10,370 – 2,593 = $7,777 per new rider
 # of projected new riders in year 2011
= 31,400
 Total Benefit in 2011 = 31,400* 7,777
  244.2 million
 This benefit increases every year as
ridership of the metro extension
increases

Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 3, Appendeix C.” Summary of Effects
http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/EA_Feb2006/DullesEA_AppendixC.pdf
To calculate social benefits, we
looked at 3 quantifiable
variables
Crash Avoidance
 Pavement Deterioration
 Social Cost of Automobile Pollution

To determine social benefits,
we examined net vehicle miles
traveled reduced



Projected net reduction in vehicle miles
traveled in 2011 is 251.6 million (FTA,
2004)
Projected net reduction in vehicle miles
traveled in 2025 is 153.8 million
The average reduction in vehicle miles
traveled during this time was 6.99 million
per year
Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 10: Evaluation of Alternatives Carried Forward.” Final
Environmental Impact Statement http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_10.pdf.
To determine social benefits, their
monetary value per automobile mile
traveled
Social benefit per mile of crash
avoidance is 1.19 cents
 Social benefit per mile of pavement
deterioration is .1 cents
 Social cost per mile of auto pollution is
1.33 cents

Source: Federal Highway Administration.” 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study, 2000 Addendum
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/hcas/addendum.htm.
The combined social benefits
are not substantial, but are
significant
Year
Net Reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled (2011)*
Crash Avoidance at 1.19 cents per mile
Pavement Deterioration at .1 cents per mile
Social Cost of Automobile Pollution@ 1.33 cents per mile
2011
251,600,000
2,994,040
251,600
3,346,280
Assumptions were also necessary
for determining job increase
benefits
Jobs without rail for 2025
 Job Increase rate with rail at metro
stations only for 2025
 Average Salary for new jobs $12/hour assuming most will be
service jobs
 Employment is full time non-seasonal

The job benefit toward to the
regional economy is significant,
but is only calculated for 2005
Jobs without Rail for 2025 (FTA, 2004)
Job Increase Rate at Stations Only for 2025 (FTA, 2004)
Assumption: Hourly Wage (Many service jobs)
Average Working Hours Per Day
Average Working Days Per Year
Job Increase at Stations Only
Total Benefit Toward Regional Economy (Excluding DWL)
$
$
130,500
0.17
12.00
8.00
245.00
22,185
521,791,200
Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 8: Financial Analysis.” Final Environmental Impact Statement and
Section 4(f) Evaluation http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.
Our Sensitivity Analysis adjusts
for inflated numbers and
different discount rates
Commuter savings inflation of 10 and
20 percent
 Capital costs increases of 10, 20, and
30 percent
 Discount Rates for each scenario of
5,6,7,8,9, & 10 percent

Silver Line CBA with no
assumed errors looks very
favorable
Discount Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
in millions
NPV
$1,909.25
$1,582.20
$1,302.81
$1,063.66
$858.58
$682.42
$530.86
$400.28
If capital costs were 10% more,
rail is still beneficial
Discount Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
in millions
NPV
$1,782.44
$1,458.97
$1,182.99
$947.12
$745.18
$572.03
$423.35
$295.55
If capital costs were 20% more,
rail is still beneficial
Discount Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
in millions
NPV
$1,655.64
$1,335.74
$1,063.18
$830.58
$631.78
$461.64
$315.85
$190.82
If capital costs were 30% more,
rail is still beneficial
Discount Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
in millions
NPV
$1,528.84
$1,212.50
$943.37
$714.04
$518.38
$351.25
$208.35
$86.09
Even if capital costs increased by 40%
and commuter benefits decreased by
20%, rail extension is favorable
Discount Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
in millions
NPV
$770.05
$525.98
$320.08
$146.25
($0.55)
($124.52)
($229.18)
($317.47)
Conclusion
Regional Strengths
 Net Present Value of Silver Line
 Recommendations

Fairfax County and Loudoun
County will continue to grow
Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_3.pdf
Employment in Fairfax
County Area

25 of the Top 100 Federal Contractors
General Dynamics
 Booz Allen Hamilton
 Bearing Point


Six Fortune 500 companies
Nextel
 Capital One Financial
 Sallie Mae

Source: http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/wash_tech.htm and
http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/fortune500.htm
Net Present Value

We recommend the construction of
the Silver line
The project creates a positive net
benefit in the region
 The area can support this project
because of regional stability
