ECON 3510
African Economic Development
Demography
and
Development
[See Text, Chapter 6]
May 18, 2010
Agenda
I. Theories of Population in the African Context
1. Malthus Theory and Demographic History
2. The Demographic Transformation
3. Microeconomic Theory of Population
II. African Demographic Experience
III. Note on Demographic Structures
IV. Implications of Rapid Population Growth for
African Economic Development
V. Population Policies
1. Malthus Theory of Population Growth:
- people had an uncontrollable urge to procreate!
[This would not diminish as civilization progressed.]
- population growth would continue at a
rapid pace
(“geometrically”)
- Agriculture was subject to limited land and
diminishing returns.
(“arithmetic”)
- population would expand to the point where the
“positive checks” would operate.
Famine, Disease and War.
Result: incomes would fall to the starvation
level.
Life would be “nasty, brutish and short” for the
vast majority of human beings.
Is this or was this in fact the case?
World Population
An Economic History of the World!
(courtesy of G. Clark, A Farewell to Alms)
Real Output per Worker in England, 1260-1960. (G.Clark)
Was there any escape from this fate?
Was there any escape from this fate?
Malthus’ Recommendation:
Establish “Preventative Checks” on
population:
- “Moral Restraint,”
- Delay of marriage
How probable were these ?
Was Malthus’ Vision Correct?
In general maybe “No”
•
•
at least for recent centuries
though some parts of the world maybe
caught in a
“Malthusian Population Trap.”
Why or Why Not?
Malthus’ predictions: unfulfilled for
high & medium income countries:
1. Technology of contraception was
unforeseen;
2. Family Planning;
3. Technological change has postponed the
impacts of serious diminishing returns;
agricultural output has in fact grown more rapidly
than population.
Why?
4. Has the “urge to procreate” declined?
5. Social and sociological impacts of
“Modernization” and Urbanization on birth
rates were unforeseen:
- Higher female labour force participation;
- Higher status for women: increases education and
reduces child-bearing
- Higher costs of raising children in modern urban
areas vis-à-vis agriculture and rural areas
- Cultural factors: more Television etc. etc.
- Less need for children as family labour and old
age security;
Can Rapid Population Growth be Positive?
Esther Boserup: Yes
Population growth
greater population
density
innovation & productivity;
economies of scale
better support for infrastructure
Simon:
Short term results likely negative
Long term results, may be positive
Was Malthus’ Vision Correct for
“Africa”?
Are (some of) the Countries of Africa
Approaching a Malthusian Trap?
Why or Why Not?
Some Comparative Demographic Information
Country
Size
(square
kms.)
Population Population Population
Density
Growth
(Millions,
2005)
(persons per
Rate
Fertility
Rate
square km.,
2001)
(per cent)
per
Woman)
2.2
2.0
2.2
6.8
5.7
6.1
Burundi
Rwanda
Malawi
28,000
26,000
118,000
7.9
9.2
13.2
282
354
112
Nova Scotia
New
Brunswick
55,000
0.913
17
73,000
0.730
10
(Children
II. Theory of the Demographic Transition
(See Charts below)
Stage 1:
High Birth Rate and Death rate
Population stability
Stage 2:
Falling death Rate; Continuing High Birth Rate:
Population increasing faster and faster;
Stage 3:
Death Rate Decline Intensifies; Birth Rate Decline
accelerates;
Population Growth continues but decelerates
Stage 4:
Low Death Rate and Low Birth Date:
Population Stability
To which I would add
Stage 5: The Current Reality for High Income Countries?
Death Rates Continue at a low level; Birth Rates
fall
further
Population Size Declines
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/edu/dees/V1003/imagres/demographic .transition2
Stage 5,
Explaining the Demographic Transition
Factors Affecting Death Rates:
Factors Affecting Birth Rates:
Usefulness of Approach
III.
The Microeconomic Theory of Fertility
Application of basic microeconomic theory to the childbearing decision.
Assumption: children are at least in part a good like others,
providing “consumption” benefits to the parents and
serving also as an investment good (providing labour
and generating family income)
Possible economic benefits of additional children:
Old-age security
Expected income from child labour
Costs of additional children:
Opportunity cost of Mothers’ time
Opportunity and actual costs of educating, & looking after
children
How to reduce fertility rates? Change the costs and the
benefits! How?
Why do African Fertility Rates Remain High?
Some Demographic Indicators, Africa
2000-2005
Total Fertility
Rate
Population
Growth Rate
Working Age Population
(15-64)
Africa
4.7
2.3
56.4
Ethiopia
Kenya
5.3
5.0
2.5
2.6
53.2
50.7
Liberia
Mauritius
Somalia
Uganda
Zambia
6.8
1.9
6.0
5.2
3.2
4.2
0.8
3.0
3.1
1.9
50.7
69.7
53.1
58.0
56.4
Why do African Fertility Rates Remain High?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Children as family labour force;
Intergenerational wealth transfers
Children as old age security;
Religion?
Rural character of society
Impacts of urbanization
Pervasiveness of electricity and consumer stuff
Education for women: age of marriage and
opportunity costs of having children
• Presence of contraception and abortion
Hans Rosling on Statistics, Demography and Poverty
• http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/hans_rosling_reveals_new_insights_
on_poverty.html
As a doctor and researcher, Hans Rosling identified a new
paralytic disease induced by hunger in rural Africa. Now
the global health professor is looking at the bigger picture,
increasing our understanding of social and economic
development with the remarkable trend-revealing
software he created.
IV.
A Note on Demographic
Structures:
See:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.ht
ml
African Countries:
e.g.
Kenya
Rwanda
High Income Countries:
e.g.
Japan
Canada
The Chinese Case:
Explain the “Demographic Window of Opportunity”
• Note the prospective “Aging Population” phenomenon and reductions in the
relative size of the labour force
V.
Implications of Rapid Population Growth
for African Economic Development
What are they?
V.
Implications of Rapid Population
Growth for African Economic
Development
1. Impact on Income per Capita:
When population is growing rapidly, economic growth
must grow exceed Population Growth Rates to
maintain income per capita.
i.e. income per capita = income/population
2. Effects on Savings
Rapid population growth tends to increase family and
national consumption , thereby reducing savings
3. Investment
Rapid population growth requires that large
amounts of resources must be devoted to
investments, to keep up with Population.
Growth.
4. “Dependency” ratios:
Rapid population growth leads to “bottom heavy”
population pyramids, which means the
working age population of a country
is relatively small as
a % of total
population., or a high
dependency ratio
5. Effects on Employment and
Unemployment:
Ever-growing cohorts of young people are
entering the job market, adding to labour
supply. Can the demand for labour demand
keep up?.
6. Impacts on Income Distribution:
Because family size is highest among the poor,
rapid population growth affects income
distribution negatively.
– The numerous children of the poor have less
monetary, family or parental investment in their upbringing
– They start off in life with minimal inheritances.
7. Environmental Impacts
Population growth in many places results in
poor rural people being pushed into ever
more marginal and environmentallyinappropriate farm lands.
Urban environmental strtesses with rapid
urbanization
8. Rapid Urbanization
Urbanization in Africa: Some Indicators
Country
Urban
Population,
millions
1990
2007
Urban
Population %
of Total
1990 2007
Rate of
Urbanization
% per year,
1990-2007
Acces to
Improved
Sanitation,
1990 2007
Ghana
5.7
11.2
36
49
4.2
11
15
Kenya
4.3
8.0
18
21
3.7
18
19
Mauritius
0.5
0.5
44
42
0.8
95
95
Nigeria
33.3
70.5
35
48
4.4
22
25
Somalia
2.0
3.1
30
36
2.7
na
na
S. Africa
18.3
28.8
52
60
2.7
Tanzania
4.8
10.1
19
25
4.4
29
31
144.3
287.1
28
36
4.0
20
24
Sub-Saharan
Africa, Total
51
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2009 Table 3.11
VI.
Population Policies
Should governments pursue active
population control policies ?
Should Governments wait for the
“Demographic Transition” to occur
automatically?
i.e. Does “Development” lead to Population
Stability?
This has been controversial, for various
reasons
Types of Programs:
1. Internal Migration?
A few countries have tried to relieve
population pressures in some areas by
migration to other under-populated areas
(Amazonia in Brazil; the outer islands in
Indonesia.)
Potential for Africa?.
2. International Migration?
The annual population increase in Africa
(about 23 million) is too large to be relieved
significantly via international migration.
Is this correct?
3. Constructing a policy environment
promoting greater desire for smaller
families
Governments can change the environment
in which families decide to have children
- by designing programs and policies
that will induce parents to choose to
have fewer children and reduce family
size.
Of special importance are
– policies enhancing the status of women
– promoting education in general and especially for
girls
– promoting breast-feeding,
– reducing child labour
– promoting higher labour force participation rates
for women
– improving social security and pensions (so fewer
children are necessary to look after their aged
parents)
Also: - promoting contraceptive use
- legalizing abortion?
4. Specific Family Planning Programs:
Promote Family Planning
• If families want large families in any case
(for family labour purposes, for old-age
security, etc.)
- they may not be interested in family
planning facilities even if they are available.
• If families want smaller families due to the
types of factors mentioned above:
- then making family planning facilities
available can have an important impact.
- Integrate family planning with maternal
and early child care?
Fertility Rates, Africa 1900-2007
Fertility Rate
1990
Fertility Rate
2007
Population
Growth Rate
Africa
6.3
5.1
2.3
Ethiopia
Kenya
6.8
5.8
5.3
5.0
2.5
2.6
Liberia
Mauritius
Nigeria
Somalia
Uganda
Zambia
6.9
2.3
6.7
6.8
7.1
6.4
5.2
1.7
5.3
6.0
6.7
5.2
4.2
0.8
2.1
3.0
3.1
1.9