Satellite Communications A
Part - Final
The Future
-Professor Barry G Evans-
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.1
Timeline - development of commercial
satcom (1/2)
1945
1956
1962
1964
1965
1969
1976
1977
1979
1982
1983
Arthur C Clarke
First transatlantic telephone cable
Telstar
Intelsat founded
Earlybird
Intelsat completes global system
Marisats launched
Eutelsat created
Inmarsat created
Inmarsat starts operations
Eutelsat F1 launched
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.2
Timeline – development of
commercial satcom (2/2)
1984
1985
1987
1988
1988
1989
1995
1998
1999
2001
PanAmSat founded
SES Astra incorporated
Iridium conceived
First transatlantic fibre cable
First PanAmSat launch
First SES Astra launch
PanAmSat completes global system
Iridium service launch
Iridium in Chapter 11
Intelsat & Eutelsat privatisations
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.3
Where we are now (1)
Satcom applications:
• Vsat + business TV
• Broadcast + content
delivery
• TV distribution &
contribution
• Internet trunking
• Internet access
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
• Basic telephony + private
circuits
• Mobile + transportable +
offshore
• Thin route + rural remote
• Disaster, emergency
• Government
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.4
Where we are now (2)
Disadvantages of satellite:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Low capacity (compared to fibre)
End-to-end delay (with Geo technology)
Large, up-front investment; long time to pay back
Implementation risks
Exit costs
Regulatory constraints/finite raw materials (orbital
slots; spectrum; licensing/market access)
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.5
Where we are now (3)
Advantages of satellite:
•
•
•
•
•
Wide area coverage
Global reach
Low cost per site passed
Fast set-up & reconfiguration
Availability where terrestrial alternatives are
poor, non-existent or not an option
• Ability to broadcast/multicast
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.6
Industry revenues in 2000
• Worldwide satellite industry revenues
– Manufacturing
– Launch
– Services
– Ground Equipment
Total
$ 18.3 B
$ 9.6 B
$ 37.0 B
$ 17.7 B
$ 82.6 B
SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.7
Satellite services revenues 2000
– Transponder leasing
– DTH
– MSS (telephony)
– VSAT
– MSS (data)
– Remote sensing
Total
$ 8.8 B
$ 24.7 B
$ 0.4 B
$ 1.4 B
$ 1.3 B
$ 0.4 B
$ 37.0 B
SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.8
Satellite services customers 2000
• DTH
– Subscribers
67.0 M
• VSAT
– Units in operation
610,000
• MSS
– Data units in operation
854,000
– Telephony units in operation
274,300
SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.9
Global projections
• Projected revenues of the satellite
industry
– 2001
– 2010
$ 100.0 B
$ 200-300.0 B
• Projected subscribers to digital radio
– 2010
50 M
• Projected revenues from broadband
services
– 2008
$ 37 B.
SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000;
ISBC State of the Space Industry 2000; Pioneer Consulting
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.10
Satellite is essential infrastructure
• Broadcasting to businesses and homes (DTH)
• Broadcasting to cable head-ends
– Cable TV distribution dependent upon satellite
• ISP connectivity; caching; multicasting
– Distribution of internet content
• Private Networks
– VSAT networks key corporate private network
• SNG
– Broadcast stations and news bureaus rely on satellite
links.
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.11
Changing Scenes
• 1995 – Bright prospects for terrestrial mobile and
satellites
• 2000 – Terrestrial mobile booming satellites
collapse with Iridium/Globalstar failures
• 2002 – Satellite broadcasting and Internet booming
terrestrial 3G in Doldrums
“Our ability to predict the telecoms market and to
provide affordable services is poor”
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.12
2002: What’s new
•
•
•
•
Internet drives FSS
DVB – Direct TV success
Satellite radio (DAB/DARS) prospects
Mobile SPCN’s crash –end of
constellations?
• INMARSAT niche still strong
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.13
General Climate of Change (1/3)
• Deregulation / Liberalisation
– Inmarsat / Intelsat / Eutelsat: private companies
– Global operations via acquisitions
•
•
•
•
1. SES-Global (>$1billion turnover)
2. Intelsat
3. Panamsat
4. Eutelsat
– Consolidation of manufacturers
• Europe: Alcatel Space, Astrium, Alenia
• US: Boeing, Lockheed, Loral
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.14
General Climate of Change (2/3)
• Standards
– Satellite moving same way as Mobile –GMR
standards and now S-UMTS
• Spectrum
– Limited (WRC00 – Little for satellites)
– Sharing/Pricing –Satellite advantage
– Efficiency –Can satellites provide?
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.15
General Climate of Change (3/3)
• Convergence
– Fixed/Mobile/Broadcasting
– Service mobility
– Billing convergence
• Investment –Changes rapidly – Satellites
poor at moment
• Competition –Cable, fixed radio, HAPS
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.16
Where we are now
• Total satcom industry revenues were $27 Bn in 2000
(around 3% of global telecom revenues) - Source: ESA
• Internet via satellite services generated $800M global
revenues in 2000, from zero in 1997 - Source: DTT
Consulting
• Total satcom industry revenues are projected to grow to
$106 Bn by 2007. The majority of the growth will come
from broadband data and video services. Interactive
multimedia revenues are forecast to be $18Bn by 2007,
DARS $9Bn - Source: ESA
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.17
Lessons to learn (1)
Commercial:
• A “big-bang”, high-profile service launch date is unwise
• There is no such thing as a global service launch
• The satellite owner/operator will be badly let down by
uncommitted or poorly-performing distributors
• Bad news about one satellite project is bad news for all
• Satellite systems can not charge whatever they like
• Confirmed access to spectrum is vital
• Market access is crucial to business success
• The first to market is not necessarily the winner
• Finding killer applications is difficult
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.18
Lessons to learn (2)
Financial:
• Year one forecasts must be realistic
• The investors are highly dependent on the
performance of the distribution chain.
• Financing a start-up satellite system is very hard
• Do not rely on investment banks
• Exit costs are extremely high
• Flotation too soon leads to exposure and inflexibility
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.19
Lessons to learn (3)
Technology:
• The satellite manufacturer will not deliver on time
• Be realistic about time to market
• Do not design a satellite system around just one
application
• User terminals can be among the most difficult elements
in a “mass-market” satellite project
• Good technology does not assure commercial success
• Alternative, non-satellite technologies do not stand still
• Do not underestimate the complexity and costs of non
Geo systems
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.20
Lessons to learn (4)
Service:
• Motivating distributors is vital
• It is essential to have service delivery experience at the
forefront
• For the mass-market, continuous service availability is
very important
• User expectations must be carefully managed
• Distribution strategy must be coherent and focussed
• Service provision/distribution channels must be aligned
closely with the overall interests of the enterprise. They
must be up to speed right at the start
• Service and useful functions are the ultimate
deliverables
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.21
Remember
the advantages of Satellite
•
•
•
•
Wide area coverage –broadcast
Quick roll-out of services
Provides wide bands (high bit rates)
Coverage areas that are expensive for
terrestrial
• Avoids terrestrial infrastructure
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.22
FSS - Focus on the Internet
• Satellite delivery of IP-based services increased
800% over past two years
• 11% of all ISPs use some satellite links to connect
to the Internet backbone
• By 2001 total ISP demand for satellite links will
equal 216 transponders
• Internet specific satellite transponder lease revenue
will jump from $601M in 2001 to $8.5B in 2006
• End-user and ISP satellite multicast equipment to
reach over $7B in 2005.
DDT Consulting; Frost & Sullivan; Pioneer Consulting
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.23
Internet Services
• 30-40% Intelsat resources now IP
• Multicasting from satellites
• Caching provision offers improved bandwidth and response
times
• Satellite products available – Comsat
– CLA 2000
• TCP/IP
• Spoofing
• Slow start/Variable windows
– LINKWAY 2000
•
•
•
•
Multiservice BOD
ATM/IP/FR/ISDN
IP routing protocols (RSVP)
BOD adaption
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.24
Broadband
•
•
•
•
•
Ka and constellations lost momentum
Back to GEO’s and DVB-S
IP to the customer DVB-RCS
e-Europe / Broadband Britain – Satellite role
4500 (36MHz equivalent transponders) 
7000 by 2007
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.25
Satellite Direct To Home (DTH)
• 67M subscribers globally - urban, suburban and
rural
• 25M satellite households in Western Europe alone
– In Spain, Italy, UK and France more satellite households
than cable households.
• DTH taking market share from cable in US
• Cable increasingly expensive to lay (rights of way)
- cable companies looking at satellite options to
reach customers
• DTH presages 2-way internet/broadband demand
– 52% of Astra users own PCs and 27% have online
access.
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.26
80% of European digital TV
delivered by satellite
"Another important area is digital television.
The market for digital TV doubles or even
triples a year in several EU countries. Europe
has closed the gap with the USA with over 10
million subscribers. New services are rolled
out, ranging from Internet access to digital TVbased e-commerce."
From a speech by Mr. Erkki Liikanen, "eEurope and e-Business" Europay
International, Key Members' Conference Amsterdam, 1 July 2000
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.27
Satellite Broadcasting
• DBS in USA (>15m subscribers), 43% of
digital services DirecTV and EchoStar
• SNG market growing
– 97mods to DVB-S allow 90cm-1.5m SCPC
– 8Mb/s with 8PSK/TCM/16QAM option
• DVB-RCS now becoming standard for
IP delivery
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.28
Digital Radio (DAB-DARS)
• US
–
–
–
–
Xm Radio (GEO) – up
--services operation
SIRIUS Radio (HEO)
--services operation
Infrastructure in place – Deals with leading car/truck companies
Radio’s in shops (US) and in cars/trucks
• Worldwide
– Worldspace – 3 world coverage satellites
– Infrastructure/Radios – in place
• Europe
– Global Radio / Worldspace
• S-DAB
– Convergence broadcasting/mobile – Multimedia and multicasting
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.29
Sirius satellite radio system
VSAT
Satellite
SIRIUS
Satellite
TDM
Ground
Repeaters
TDM
OFDM
Remote
Uplink Site
TDM
Mobile
Receiver
OFDM TDM
12.5 MHz
National
Broadcast
Studio
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.30
Satellite: competitive local access
• Satellite DTH has successfully competed with
cable in urban, suburban and rural areas for
decades
• Satellite is a competitive means of local
access
– Only wireless technologies bypass the
incumbent’s pipes and offer consumers a real
“last mile” choice
• No other “last mile” technology - DSL, WLL,
etc. - has a proven track such as satellite.
• Satellite will be a critical access means for
bandwidth hungry, converged services.
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.31
Mobile Satellite Systems
• S-PCS (Iridium/Globalstar) failed –lead
on competition with terrestrial will not
succeed
• Inmarsat niche market area successful
but small  200k users, and expensive
• Constellations not popular
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.32
GEO-Mobiles
•
•
•
•
•
ACES/THURAYA etc.
200 spots from 14m deployables
On board dsp – channel to beam routing
GSM/GPRS services –GMR standards
Can they provide services
economically?
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.33
GEO Mobile Systems
ACES
ASC
APMT
Sat Phone Int.
EAST
Thuraya
QoS/Availability
ASIA
Coverage
Price
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
Service Offerings
Timing
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.34
Inmarsat Niche Market Extension
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.35
Convergence:
Mobile / Broadcasting (positioning)
•
•
•
•
•
Broadcast / Multicasting with caching
Push and store services
Vehicle’s and handhelds
S + T (UMTS) or DVB/DABS with UMTS
Location based services tied with
Galileo
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.36
DMB Broadcast/Multicast mission
•
Content Delivery Network
Model
DMB Satellite
– Push mechanism
– Multicast mechanism
– Store mechanism
Broadcasting
Multicasting Vehicular DMB receiver
Gateway
Contribution
network
smart antenna
Cache
Cache
server
Bluetooth
interface
Local
Interactivity
Broadcast center
User
Handset
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
Remote
Interactivity DMB terminal
final.37
DMB Architecture Synoptic
W-CDMA
Ground
Station
Terrestrial
Repeaters
URBAN
AREA
SUB - URBAN
AREA
RURAL
AREA
2G/3G Cellular
network
Contribution
network
IP WORLD
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.38
Opportunity for Satellite
– Where are terrestrial networks weak
points?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Infrastructure cost
Deployment of UMTS islands in a GPRS world
Traffic costs
Limited bandwidth per cell
Environmental (tower, pylon, radiation)
Designed for symmetric traffic
– Where will UMTS network never go?
• Broadband broadcast/multicast services (not addressed in R99)
– Don’t you feel any fresh air, there?
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.39
Little LEO’s
• Definition
– Constellations of LEO satellites,
operating at frequencies < 1GHz,
providing non real-time digital
communications for applications
such as messaging, property
tracking, email and
telemonitoring
The Orbcomm Constellation
• 2001 –Orbcomm fails –is this
the end?
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.40
Future Opportunities
• Keys are
–BROADBAND
–INTERACTIVITY
–INTEGRATION
–MOBILITY
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.41
Future Opportunities
• Convergence of Satellite delivered
broadcast/multicast with terrestrial delivery of
other services
• Broadband internet access and interactivity
• DVB-RCS –standardisation
• Mass markets rather than niche
• Cooperating service provision plus
completing terminal networks
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.42
Future opportunities
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.43
Key Constraints
• Spectrum availability at right time
• Poor perspective of satellites by terrestrial
operations
– Will they embrace as part of global network
• Unavailability of finance
• Regulatory issues and standard bodies
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.44
Future satellites:
Product Developments
•
Reliable low cost launch capability
•
Large GEO platforms (3-4 tons) – 15Kw
– Long life, high power/strange/dissipation
– Autonomy: low cost, rapid production
•
Small LEO platforms
– Medium life, pointing agility/stability
– Autonomy: low cost, rapid production
•
Large deployable reflectors
– 12-14m (Tx/Rx) – 100 spots
•
Active antennas
– BFNs
– Phased arrays
•
OBP
– Beam forming – channelising
– Regeneration – switching
•
Miniature, active/passive, microwave equipment (L/s, Ku, KA)
•
ISLs (optical)
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.45
Conclusions
•
Markets
•
Satellites provide early starts
•
Mobility
•
Civil/Military
•
Shift to service delivery/content
•
Competition
–
–
–
–
Very large –up to 4140B by 2010
Asia/Pacific Rim –biggest
Digital Broadcast –Internet driven (DVB/DAB)
Convergence of mobile/broadcast systems – using local cache’s (push to start)
band in vehicle services
– Broadband
– 3G UMTS?
– Multimedia to home
– Broadband
– INMARSAT niche – Maritime/Aero
– Mass markets opened up by broadcast/mobile convergence
– Synergies
– Emphasis away from equipment manufacture
– Software service
– Cable / radio / HAPS
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.46
Satellite & the competition
• Technical limitations of terrestrial networks will
severely restrict broadband availability.
– Digital subscriber line (DSL) signals decay on long telephone lines
or on those of poor quality.
– Local multipoint distribution service (LMDS) signals cannot
penetrate obstructions, buildings.
– Cable performance deteriorates if too many in a neighborhood log
on at the same time.
– Fiber-to-the-home is a costly retrofit, economically viable only for
new housing construction.
• For up to one third of the population in the U.S.
and an even greater portion worldwide, satellite
technology will not simply be a choice, it will be the
choice.
Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey
SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans
final.47