Chapter 10
MARKETING
RESEARCH
AND SALES
FORECASTING
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May
not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a
publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Objectives
1. Describe the development of the marketing
research function and its major activities.
2. Explain the steps in the marketing research
process.
3. Distinguish between primary and secondary
data, and identify the sources of each type.
4. Explain the different sampling techniques
used by marketing researchers.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Objectives
5. Identify the methods by which marketing
researchers collect primary data.
6. Explain the challenges of conducting
marketing research in global markets.
7. Outline the most important uses of
computer technology in marketing research.
8. Identify the major types of forecasting
methods.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Introduction
▮Marketing research - Collecting and using
information for marketing decision making
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Development of the Marketing Research
Function
▮Advertising pioneer N. W. Ayer conducted the
first organized marketing research project in
1879
▮Charles C. Parlin organized the nation’s first
commercial research department at Curtis
Publishing
▮Research methods grew more sophisticated in
the 1930s with better sampling techniques
and greater accuracy
▮Computer technology has significantly
advanced market research
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Who Conducts Marketing Research?
▮Syndicated services - Organization that
provides standardized data on a periodic basis
to its subscribers
▮Full-service research suppliers - Marketing
research organization that offers all aspects of
the marketing research process
▮Limited-service research suppliers - Firm
that specializes in a limited number of
activities, such as conducting field interviews
or performing data processing
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Customer Satisfaction Measurement
Programs
▮Firms focus on tracking satisfaction levels
of current customers
▮Analyze partial or complete dissatisfaction
to identify problem areas that need
attention
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Figure 10.1 - The Marketing Research
Process
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Define the Problem
▮Defining the problem clearly increases the
speed and accuracy of the research process
▮Confusing symptoms of a problem with the
problem itself should be avoided
▮A logical starting point in identifying the
problem – to evaluate the firm’s target
market and marketing mix elements
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Conduct Exploratory Research
▮Exploratory research - Process of
discussing a marketing problem with
informed sources both within and outside
the firm and examining information from
secondary sources
▮Using internal data
• Sources of internal data are sales records,
financial statements, and marketing cost
analyses
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Conduct Exploratory Research
• Sales analysis can compare expected sales with
actual sales and be analyzed in a variety of
ways, such as by customer type and sales
method
• Accounting data provides information about
financial issues
• Marketing cost analysis evaluates expenses for
a variety of costs
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Formulate a Hypothesis
▮Hypothesis - A tentative explanation for
some specific event
▮Sets the stage for more in-depth research
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Create a Research Design
▮Research design - A master plan or model
for conducting research
▮Important considerations
• Marketers must be sure the study will measure
what they intend to measure
• Selection of respondents
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Collect Data
▮Primary data - Information collected for a
specific investigation
▮Secondary data - Previously published
information
•
•
•
•
Less expensive
Less time consuming
Can become obsolete
May not be completely relevant
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Interpret and Present Research Data
▮Present findings in a format that allows
managers to make effective judgments
▮Marketing researchers and research users
must cooperate at every stage in the
research process
▮Reports must be clear and concise
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Secondary Data Collection
▮Comes from many sources
• Internal data - Sales records, product
performance reviews
• External data - Government records, syndicated
research services
▮Government data
• Nation’s most important source of marketing
data
• Census data provide the most frequently used
government statistics
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Secondary Data Collection
▮The 2010 U.S. Census - Contains a wealth of
valuable information for marketers
▮Private data - Variety of sources
•
•
•
•
Trade associations
Business and trade magazines
Electronic systems
Radio-frequency identification technology
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Secondary Data Collection
▮Online sources of secondary data
• Online databases
• Research aggregators - Companies that acquire,
catalog, reformat, segment, and resell premium
research reports
• Examples: Datamonitor, eMarketer
• Social networking sites
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Sampling Techniques
▮Sampling - Process of selecting survey
respondents or research participants
▮Population (universe) - Total group of
people a researcher wants to study
▮Classification of samples
• Probability sample
• Nonprobability sample
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Probability Sample
▮Sample that gives every member of the
population a chance of being selected
• Simple random sample - Sample in which every
individual in the relevant universe has an equal
opportunity to be sampled
• Stratified sample - Sample constructed to
represent randomly selected subsamples of
different groups within the total sample
• Cluster sample - Researchers select a sample of
subgroups (or clusters) from which they draw
respondents
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Nonprobability Sample
▮Sample that involves personal judgment in
the selection process
• Convenience sample - Sample selected from
among readily available respondents
• Quota sample - Sample divided to maintain the
proportion of certain characteristics among
different segments or groups seen in the
population as a whole
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Figure 10.2 - Types of Primary Research
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Observation Method
▮Researchers view the overt actions of
subjects being studied
▮Increasingly sophisticated ways for
observing behavior are being used
▮Videotaping consumers is gaining
acceptance
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Interpretative Research
▮A researcher observes a customer or group
of customers in their natural setting and
interprets their behavior based on an
understanding of the social and cultural
characteristics of that setting
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮Telephone interviews
• Quick and inexpensive way of getting a small
quantity of relatively impersonal information
• Many people refuse to take part or are reluctant
to give personal information over the phone
• Not a viable option in international markets
where telephone ownership is rare
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮Personal interviews
• Allows researchers to obtain detailed
information and ask follow-up questions
• Researchers can establish rapport with
respondents and explain confusing or vague
questions
• Mall intercepts - Interviews conducted inside
retail shopping centers
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮Focus group - A small group of individuals
brought together to discuss a specific topic
• Valuable for exploratory research
• Drawback is the potential lack of honesty due to
peer pressure
• Researchers are experimenting with online
focus groups
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮Mail surveys
• Cost-effective and provides anonymity
• Lower response rates than for personal
interviews
• Time-consuming
• May be subject to bias through self-selection
• Long follow-up time
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮Fax surveys
• Limited households use fax machine
• Securing a representative sample of respondents is a
difficult undertaking
• Federal Junk Fax Prevention Act limits fax
transmissions for commercial purposes
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮Online surveys and other Internet-based
methods
• Allow researchers to:
•
•
•
•
Increase the speed of the survey process
Increase sample sizes
Ignore geographic boundaries
Reduce costs
• No industry wide standards define techniques
for measuring Web use
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Experimental Method
▮Least used method
▮Controlled experiment - Scientific
investigation in which a researcher
manipulates a test group and compares the
results with those of a control group
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Experimental Method
▮Test marketing - Introducing a new product
in a specific area and then observing its degree
of success
• Can be expensive
• Competitors can learn about new products quickly
• Some products are not well suited to
test marketing
▮Alternatives include
• Computer-modeling software
• Regional product launches
• Limiting a product to a single retail outlet
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Conducting International Marketing
Research
▮Follow same basic steps as for domestic
marketing research
▮Researchers must be aware of cultural and
legal environments
▮May have to adapt research methods to
local conditions
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Interpretive Research
▮Researcher spends time studying the
culture
▮Focus is on understanding the meaning of
the product or consumption experience in
the consumer’s life
▮Captures what consumers actually do, not
just what they say they do
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Computer Technology in Marketing
Research
▮Marketing information systems (MIS)
• A planned, computer-based system designed to
provide decision makers with a continuous flow
of information relevant to their areas of
responsibility
• Continually monitors marketing environment
and provides instantaneous information
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Computer Technology in Marketing
Research
▮Marketing decision support systems
(MDSSs)
• Marketing information system component that
links a decision maker with relevant databases
and analysis tools
• Develops raw data useful for decision making
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Data Mining
▮Process of searching through computerized
data files to detect patterns
▮Focuses on identifying relationships that
are not obvious to marketers
▮Efficient way to sort through huge amounts
of data and make sense of it
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Business Intelligence
▮Process of gathering information and
analyzing it to improve business strategy,
tactics, and daily operations
▮Can tell the firm how its own sales
operation is doing or what its top
competitors are up to
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Competitive Intelligence
▮A form of business intelligence
▮Focuses on finding information about
competitors using secondary sources
▮Aim is to uncover the specific advantages a
competitor has
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Sales Forecasting
▮Estimate of a firm’s revenue for a specified
time period
• Qualitative forecasting - Use of subjective
techniques to forecast sales
• The jury of executive opinion, Delphi technique, sales
force composite, and surveys of buyer intentions
• Quantitative forecasting - Use of statistical
forecasting techniques
• Test market, trend analysis, and exponential
smoothing
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Table 10.2 - Benefits and Limitations of
Various Forecasting Techniques
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Strategic Implications of Marketing in the
21st Century
▮Marketing research can help an
organization develop effective marketing
strategies
▮Marketing research ideally matches new
products to potential customers
▮Marketing researchers have a broad range
of techniques to collect quantitative and
qualitative data
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
GaGa SherBetter Video
http://www.cengage.com/marketing/book_content/boone_9781133628460
/videos/ch10.html
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