Presentation Participants
Vincent Calluzzo
Dean, Hagan School of Business, Iona College
James Murtha
Chairman and CEO, Maguire Associates
Mary Beth Carey
Vice President for Enrollment Management, Iona College
Ganesh M. Pandit
Associate Professor of Accounting and Special Assistant to the Dean
Robert B. Willumstad School of Business, Adelphi University
1
The Changing Meaning of May 1
in College Admission and
Enrollment
Presentation to Mid-Atlantic Association for Colleges of Business Administration (MAACBA)
October 16, 2014
Jim Murtha, Ph.D.
Chairman & CEO Maguire Associates
Need for perspective
• May 1st and our focus on it may be something headed to the rear view
mirror
• Many public institutions always had substantial activity after May 1
• For-profit colleges offer a carousel of courses that starts every 7 or 8
weeks
• The meaning of “selectivity” is changing: students have more choices
and are weighing their options
• May 1 is a reflection of a “new normal” in higher education
Emergence of an Economic “New Normal”
• Idea is credited to Mohamed El-Erian (Financial Times, July 2009),
recently departed CEO of PIMCO.
• The new normal is a time when
• global growth and investment returns will be far lower than in the recent past.
• higher than normal unemployment
• Federal Reserve predictions also include
• slower than expected growth
• lingering very low interest rates
Origins of a New Normal
• Cheap debt fueled a spending binge
• Leading to a housing price bubble
• Too much debt for gov’t, individuals and some businesses
• When housing prices fell to more normal levels, everyone tried to bail
• Families had to pay off debt even as home prices declined, a lot
• Families lost wealth leading to lower consumer spending
• Reduced spending also
• lowered overall economic activity
• made businesses skittish about hiring, even when things improved
A New Normal for Higher Education?
• Did the economic downturn change higher education?
• In a fundamental way?
• For the long term?
• My answer to these questions is yes, yes and yes
National Postsecondary Enrollment by Sector
Total Headcount
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Enrollment
Four-Year Public
Four-year Private
Four- Year, For-profit
Two-Year Public
20,510,526
20,556,272
20,195,924
19,885,203
7,712,447
7,819,806
7,769,609
7,796,119
3,579,325
3,697,254
3,714,967
3,761,953
1,639,196
1,577,290
1,463,097
1,321,107
7,030,516
6,918,915
6,706,913
6,497,602
2010
2011
2012
2013
A “New Normal” for Colleges and Universities?
Five Dimensions:
Greater price sensitivity
Fewer resources
Expense pressure from revenue
shortfalls
Greater competition
Struggle to survive
Here to stay?
These forces were at play prior to
the fiscal crisis
Financial upheaval added to
internal and external pressures
Financial turmoil adds impetus to
a financial transformation in
higher education that was already
underway.
Demand Factors
Demography
• College enrollment will grow more slowly, especially in the private
sector
• Greater participation of those over 25 years old
• Current high school graduates will continue to decline or remain flat in
all States outside the South
• White high school graduates will decline while Hispanics and Asians
will rise
Finances
• Most students attend public institutions with low tuition
• Tuition charges have increased, while median family income is flat
• Debt has become a “problem” rather than a solution
• Data show that families are more price conscious
• Financial aid offices report steadily rising tendency to “negotiate” final
net tuition
• Students “deposit” later and greater “melt” is occurring
• More financial aid “appeals”
Questioning the “Value” of College
• Students and families are motived by jobs and careers
• Vast majority of those who begin seek a BA, though far fewer finish
one and even fewer finish on time
• High unemployment and “under-employment” raise questions
• Government scorecards raise additional questions
• Is it worth it?
Consumer orientation
• Students and families now behave as “customers” or “clients”
• Other service organizations –even the DMV – make things simple and
effective on line
• Students expect similar customer orientation from colleges they
inquire about
• They expect to be recruited, to choose the college, not to be
“admitted.”
Implications
• Private higher education is due for a major shakeout that will lead to
closures, mergers and consolidations
• Scholarship support will need to remain high to meet price resistance
among parents
• Less “net tuition” revenue per student and high discounts will remain
• Private institutions will become more like publics to survive, they will
need to dig deeper into the pool
• Success will depend on demonstrating value in the job market and
careers to appeal to first generation college students and families
Rays of light
• Value can be demonstrated
• Technology and innovative management can produces savings
• Career focus and career education can be demonstrated
• Transfer and international students offer undergraduate opportunities
• Adults offer opportunity for both undergraduate and graduate
programs
• Colleges can develop their own best “fit” with potential students,
carve out a niche
Conclusion
• As the ready supply of potential college applicants has diminished, so
have the resources available to each entering cohort
• Resource constraints in the current pool coupled with declining
numbers curtail options for institutions: less pricing power, less
discretion in “admissions”
• Students and families also have less true choice, making local, public
“choices” more likely.
• Opportunity has diminished for both the student and institutional
sides of the equation
References
• Term Enrollment Estimates Fall 2012, (National Student Clearing House Research Center, Fall 2012)
• Term Enrollment Estimates Fall 2013, National Student Clearing House Research Center , Fall 2013)
• Digest of Educational Statistics, 2012,
• Graduate Enrollment and Degrees: 2002 to 2012 (Leila M. Gonzales, Jeffrey R. Allum, Robert S. Sowell) Council of Graduate
Schools Graduate Record Examinations Board September 2013
• National Postsecondary Enrollment Trends Before, During, and After the Great Recession (National Student Clearinghouse
Research Center Afet Dunbar, Don Hossler, Doug Shapiro Project on Academic Success, Indiana University Jin Chen, Sarah
Martin, Vasti Torres, Desiree Zerquera, Mary Ziskin) July 2011
• “Colleges Struggling to Stay Afloat,” Jeffrey J. Selingo New York Times April 12, 2013
•
Trends for 2014; the Lawlor Group (http://clients.thelawlorgroup.com/Lawlor_Trends_2014.pdf), particularly on Demand
Factors.
Mid-Atlantic Association for Colleges of Business
Administration 2014
Finance and Strategy Planning
October 16, 2014
18
Presentation Participants
Vincent Calluzzo
Dean, Hagan School of Business, Iona College
James Murtha
Chairman and CEO, Maguire Associates
Mary Beth Carey
Vice President for Enrollment Management, Iona College
Ganesh M. Pandit
Associate Professor of Accounting and Special Assistant to the Dean
Robert B. Willumstad School of Business, Adelphi University
19
Agenda /Iona College Case Study
• Higher Education in the News
• Sustainable Future for Higher Education?
• National and New York State Demographics
• Iona Geomarkets
• Iona College, Fall 2014 Enrollment Cycle
• Post May 1 Strategy
• Post May 1 Results
• Freshmen Achievements
20
Higher Education In the News
•
St. Mary’s College of Maryland joins troubling trend: Too many empty freshman seats, The Washington Post, November 1, 2013, Nick Anderson
•
Rising Tuition Discounts and Flat Tuition Revenues Squeeze Colleges Even Harder, The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 24, 2014, Scott Carlson
•
The Hottest Seat on Campus, The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 15, 2014, Eric Hoover
•
New Guide on International Recruitment Agents, AACRO, September 17, 2014
•
More Pressure Than Ever: The 2014 Survey of College and University Admissions Directors,
Inside Higher Ed, September 18, 2014, Scott Jashik
•
Common App No Longer Requires Members to Conduct ‘Holistic’ Reviews, The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 19, 2014, Eric Hoover
•
Admissions Leaders Gather to Weigh ‘Prestige, Financial Aid, and Love’, The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 22, 2014, Eric Hoover
•
Goals for Enrollment and Tuition Revenue Elude Many Colleges, The Chronicle of Higher Education, October 13, 2014, Scott Carlson
21
Sustainable Future for Higher Education?
•
•
•
•
Private Colleges at Risk
Failure to meet Enrollment Goals
Revenue Shortfalls
Need for Programs to Increase Revenue
Source: Weathering the Economic Storm: CFOs on Building a Sustainable Future for Higher Education
22
Nation-wide High School
Graduation Projection 2008 - 2028
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
Public
Private
1,500,000
Total
1,000,000
500,000
0
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2013
23
New York State Public High School
Graduation Projection 2008 – 2023
200,000
195,000
190,000
185,000
180,000
175,000
170,000
165,000
160,000
155,000
150,000
185,630
176,310
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2014
174,530
170,290
24
Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by
state:
School years 2009–10 through 2022-23
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, February 2014
25
Recruitment Intelligence
Geomarkets
• Primary Markets (Tri-State)
• NYC, Westchester, Long Island, Rockland, Dutchess,
Ulster
• New Jersey, Pennsylvania
• Connecticut
• Emerging/Growing Markets
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Georgia
Texas
Louisiana
North & South Carolina
Florida
Puerto Rico
Arizona
Virgin Islands
Hawaii
• Secondary/Tertiary
• NORTHEAST
• MA, RI VT, NH, ME, Upstate NY
• DELMARVA
• Delaware
• Maryland
• Virginia/West Virginia
• D.C.
• MIDWEST/CENTRAL
• Chicago, IL
• Milwaukee, WI
• St. Louis, MO
• Tennessee
• Colorado
• Ohio
• PACIFIC/NORTHWEST
• Portland, OR
• Seattle, WA
• Spokane, WA
• California
26
The Day The Deposits Stood
Still
“April 20th: Black Monday”
The List
• National Association for College Admission Counseling’s (NACAC’s) annual College Openings Update
(formerly the “Space Availability Survey”)
• A tool for counselors, parents and teachers as they assist students who have not yet completed the
college application and admission process after the May 1 response deadline observed by many
colleges.
• In cases where well-qualified students may not have applied to a range of institutions, or may have
been turned down by all schools to which they applied, the Update provides a listing of schools
accepting applications post-May 1
• The list includes information on the availability of financial aid and housing.
Post-May 1 Strategy
• Guidance Counselor / High School Outreach
• Completed NACAC College Openings Update Survey
• Guidance Counselor Relationships
• High School Visits
• Call Campaigns
• 5 days a week evening hours to 8:30 pm
• Reduced to 7:30 during July and August
• Segmented populations: regions, quality, non-FAFSA filers, FAFSA filers/no application for admissions,
transfers
• Adhered to NACAC guidelines – did not “sell” to those deposited at other schools
• Additional Visit Opportunities/ Immediate Decisions
• Last Minute Mondays
• Transfer Tuesdays
29
Post-May 1 Strategy
• Modified Financial Aid Appeal Process
• Targeted Additional Aid Dollars
• Freshmen
• Transfers
• Melt Management / “Onboarding” Monitoring
• Attended Orientation?
• Completed Residential Life Contract/Deposit?
• Complied with Health Requirements?
• Returning Student Outreach
• Supplemented Spring Outreach Activity
• Not Yet Registered for Fall
• No FAFSA on File
30
Post-May 1 Results
Metric
May 1
Census Date
Increase
Freshmen Gross Deposits
659
872
216
Freshmen Net Deposits
657
802
145
Transfer Gross Deposits
24
102
78
Transfer Net Deposits
24
95
71
Continuing Undergraduate Heads - Fall
1848
2106
258
31
Fall 2014 Undergraduate
Admissions Achievements
• Increased Freshmen applications: 117% of goal
• Increased number of completed applications: 122% of goal
• Increased rate of completed applications: 85% versus plan of 82%
• Actively managing admit rate - increased selectivity: 87% completed application admit
rate versus 92% for Fall 2013
• Increased quality of students – average SAT of both admitted (1049) and deposited
(1023) students up over prior year (1015)
• 800 enrolled first-time, full-time Freshmen (budget of 760)
• Discount Rate: 50.7%
32
The Future
• Despite the turbulent environment and enrollment volatility, Iona
experienced positive enrollment results
• Remain acutely aware of the national trends, shifting demographics,
and challenges in the marketplace
• The future sustainability of private liberal arts education is unknown