Disasters and Development:
Including
Hurricane Katrina: How did a poor world
disaster happen in a rich country?
Prof. John C. Mutter
Deputy Director
The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Disasters
Can your science help people
like this?
and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Collecting water near
Kararo Ethiopia
Disasters
and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Can our science help people like this ……
Kararo Village
Ethiopia
Can our science help people like this ……
The divide today
rich
poor
GNP PPP/person
population (billion)
% increase/year
% with HIV/AIDS
$26,320
1.2
0.1
0.5
$4,450
5.3
1.5
1.4
infant mortality rate
6/1000
59/1000
children/woman
1.6
3.0
life expectancy
76
65
% urban
76
41
people/km2
24
64
Three part case for the co-dependence of
human well-being and the state of the planet
 There is a global ecology of human well-being
 Small variations around the norm in poor countries can
act like disasters in rich countries -- the poorest are the
most vulnerable
 Natural disasters preferentially imperil the poorest
Income per person, PPP (1998)
GDP per
capita as a
function of
latitude.
Poverty has a
latitudinal
dependence
(J. Sachs)
Infant Mortality
What is the Human Development Index (HDI)?
A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of
human development:
LONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth;
KNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary,
secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;
STANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in
US$).
HDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income.
HDI versus latitude
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
50
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
-10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-30
-50
-70
HDI (1980-2000)
0.8
1.0
Climate variability and
Malaria risk in Botswana
Characteristics of global disasters impacts
 Preferentially imperil the poorest people
• Large total deaths
• Large relative to population
• Large relative to level of exposure
 Mortality risk is gender and age selective
 Effect on market economy often minimal
Disaster mortality risk from combined hazards
(World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al)
1000.00
Bottom 40% HDI
Annual Disaster-Related Deaths per Million Pop.
Bottom 40% Average
100.00
Middle 40% HDI
Middle 40% Average
Top 20% HDI
Top 20% Average
10.00
1.00
0.10
Aggregate Natural Disasters
Source UNDP 2004
0.01
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
Annual Disaster-Related Deaths
1000.00
10000.00
Relative Cyclone Vulnerability
10,000.00
Bangladesh
Very old and young and women are at greatest
risk Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
1,000.00
India
Top 20% HDI
Philippines
Honduras
Average annual deaths
Viet Nam
China
US
Nicaragua
100.00
Mexico
Rep. of Korea
Pakistan
Japan
Thailand
El Salvador
Malaysia
10.00
Fiji
Sw aziland
Cape Verde
Comoros
Papua New Guinea
Costa Rica
Jamaica
Venezuela
Australia
Lao
Colombia
1.00
Belize
New Zealand
0.10
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
Average population exposed to cyclones
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
Relative Drought Vulnerability
100,000.00
Bottom 40% HDI
10,000.00
Ethiopia
Middle 40% HDI
Sudan
Mozambique
Average annual deaths
Top 20% HDI
1,000.00
Females have small survival advantage
Mauritania
100.00
China
Chad
Indonesia
India
10.00
Madagascar
Uganda
Pakistan
Kenya
Papua New Guinea
1.00
Brazil
Guinea
Burundi
0.10
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Average population exposed to droughts
Philippines
10,000,000
100,000,000
Relative Earthquake Vulnerability
10,000.00
Iran
Bottom 40% HDI
1,000.00
Average annual deaths
100.00
Armenia
Middle 40% HDI
Turkey
Top 20% HDI
India
Men have a small
Yemen
advantage
Italy
China
10.00
Nicaragua
Japan
Indonesia
Philippines
Chile
US
Guatemala
Australia
1.00
Romania
Uganda
0.10
Kazakhstan
Belgium
Germany
New Zealand
Brazil
0.01
1,000
10,000
Argentina
100,000
1,000,000
Average population exposed to earthquakes
10,000,000
100,000,000
Amenabad India
70
70
HDI low est 40%
50
HDI middle 40%
30
10
-30
-50
-70
30
1
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
-10 0
HDI highest 20%
50
10
100
1000
10
-10
-30
Flood Vulnerability
-50
0.0
0.2
0.4
School Algeria 1980
Islamanbad Pakistan 2005
70
70
HDI low est 40%
50
HDI middle 40%
30
10
-30
-50
-70
30
1
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
-10 0
HDI highest 20%
50
10
100
1000
10
-10
-30
Flood Vulnerability
-50
0.0
0.2
0.4
Northridge California
Relative Flood Vulnerability
10,000.00
Bottom 40% HDI
1,000.00
Venezuela
Middle 40% HDI
China
India
Top 20% HDI
Average annual deaths
Nepal
Indonesia
100.00
Morocco
Japan
U.S.
Egypt
10.00
Argentina
Djibouti
Gambia
Botsw ana
1.00
Germany
UK
Kazakhstan
New Zealand
0.10
Kuw ait
Sw itzerland
Kyrgyzstan
Norw ay
0.01
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
Average population exposed to floods
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
Flod vulnerability
W.r.to latitude and HD
Tsunami damage
Sri Lanka
Tsunami damage
Sri Lanka
Mortality risk is a combination
of physical and social
Vulnerabilities: fragile dwellings
in risky places.
Flood disaster economic losses
Flood disaster mortality
Typical levee failures
Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability
East Orleans
Metairie
New
Orleans
(Lower
Ninth Ward)
Algiers
Jefferson
Parish
St. Bernards
Parish
Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of victims
Total deceases victims to date 1417.
But definition of Katrina victim is uncertain:
 those who died during or after moving to a different state may not be
counted.
 Approx 1000 remain unaccounted for.
 Total may be close to 2000
Top 10 Hurrican Death Tolls Since 1900










Galveston
Lake Okeechobee
Katrina
Unnamed
New England
Labor Day
Audrey
Great Atlantic
Great Isle
Unnamed
(1900):
(1928):
(2005):
(1919):
(1938):
(1935):
(1957):
(1944):
(1909):
(1915):
8,000
2,500
1,417
600
600
408
390
390
390
350
Katrina in comparison



















# 3,000 - 1737 Calcutta cyclone (India)
# 2,500 - Andhra Pradesh cyclone, 1996
# 2,334 - Typhoon Iris (China, 1959)
# 2,150 - hurricane, (Caribbean, 1935)
# 2,060 - Hurricane David, (Dominican Republic, U.S., 1979)
# 2,000-3,000 - hurricane, (Central America, 1934)
# 2,000 - hurricane, (Gulf of Mexico, 1780)
# 2,000 - hurricane, (Florida, 1781)
# 2,000 - hurricane, (Cuba, Florida, 1870)
# 2,000 - Chenier Caminada Hurricane, (Louisiana, 1893)
# 1,620 - Hurricane Stan, (Mexico, Central America, 2005)
# 1,605 - Hurricane Katrina, (United States, 2005) not including
2,500 missing[1]
# 1,600 - Typhoon Mary, (China, 1960)
# 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Windward Islands, 1831)
# 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Central America, 1931)
# 1,500 - hurricane, (Greater Antilles, Mexico, 1909)
# 1,300 - Typhoon Ike, (Philippines, 1984)
# 1,200 - Hurricane Hazel (Bahamas, Haiti, U.S., Canada,1954)
# 1,145 - Hurricane Gordon (Haiti, U.S., 1994)
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
910 deceased victims processed
at St Gabriel Morgue as of Jan 18th
786 identified with age, gender and race (approx
half the total victims)
629 released to families
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Gender
51% male
49% female
Race
50% African American
42% Caucasian
All other groups less than 4%
Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability
Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)
Flood vulnerability
Flood vulnerability
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Gender
51% male
49% female
Race
50% African American
42% Caucasian
All other groups less than 4%
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Age: the equalizer
64% older than 60 yrs
39% older than 75 yrs
1% less than 5 yrs
less than 4% younger than 20 yrs
less than 20% younger than 50 yrs
Katrina Effect on
Flood Vulnerability
Relative Flood Vulnerability
10,000.00
Bottom 40% HDI
1,000.00
Venezuela
Middle 40% HDI
China
India
Katrina effect
Top 20% HDI
Average annual deaths
Nepal
Indonesia
100.00
Morocco
Japan
U.S.
Egypt
10.00
Argentina
Djibouti
Gambia
Botsw ana
1.00
Germany
UK
Kazakhstan
New Zealand
0.10
Kuw ait
Sw itzerland
Kyrgyzstan
Norw ay
0.01
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
Average population exposed to floods
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
Flood vulnerability
70
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
50
HDI highest 20%
50
30
10
-10 0
-30
-50
1
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
100
10
-10
-30
-70
Flood Vulnerability
-50
0.0
1000
0.2
0.4
Katrina Effect on
Flood vulnerability
70
US
50
Katrina
K
effect
30
10
-10 0
1
10
100
70
-30
1000
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
-50
50
-70
)
30
Flood Vulnerability
HDI highest 20%
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