2003 CGS - AMROA
Alabama’s Tax Reform:
What Went Wrong and Why
Dr. Jim Seroka, CGS – Auburn University
Alabama Municipal Revenue Officers Association
December 5, 2003
2003 CGS - AMROA
Tax Reform in Alabama Down
to a Resounding Defeat
Two out of Three
Alabamians Vote NO
on Amendment 1 on
September 9, 2003
Governor Riley
Repudiated by His
Own Party
Special Session Makes
Dramatic Cuts in the
State Budget
2003 CGS - AMROA
Alabamians Who Voted NO
Were Strongly Influenced By:
68% - Opposition to the tax increase
on cars & trucks
63% - Opposition to 100% market
value state property assessment
61% -Governor wanting too much
56% - Low Trust in the Legislature
2003 CGS - AMROA
Alabamians Who Voted YES
Were Strongly Influenced By:
66% - Possibility of Teacher Layoff
59% - The Unfairness of the Tax
System
59% - The Performance-Based
College Scholarship Fund
52% - Potential Closure of Senior
Citizen Centers
2003 CGS - AMROA
Alabamians Who Voted YES
Strongly Supported:
70% - Increase in the Child
Exemption on State Income Tax
65% - Increase in Cigarette Tax
61% - Large Timber Companies
Paying More in Property Tax
2003 CGS - AMROA
Who Influenced the Vote for
Supporters of Amendment 1?
• 48% Alabama
Education Association
• 36% Governor Riley
• 23% AARP
• 24% Family
2003 CGS - AMROA
Who Influenced the Vote for
Opponents of Amendment 1?
• 22% Family
• Not ALFA
• Not Alabama
Republican Party
2003 CGS - AMROA
The Vote Was Not Heavily
Influenced by:
•
•
•
•
•
TV Ads
Mass Mailings
Church Groups
Political Parties
Social Groups
2003 CGS - AMROA
Who Opposed Amendment 1?
• 75% High School/
GED Education
• 72% Household
Income under $20,000
• 73% Voters identified
as Conservative
• 71% Voters living in
rural areas
2003 CGS - AMROA
Who Supported Amendment 1?
• 58% Graduate or
Professional Education
• 55% AfricanAmerican voters
• 51% Voters with 10 –
20 Years in Alabama
• 50% Labor Union
Members
2003 CGS - AMROA
For a Tax Initiative to Pass, 2 of 3
Undecided Voters Must Support
• 17% are likely to
17%
support tax
increases
34%
• 34% will
probably never
support tax
increases
49%
Likely Support
Opposed
Undecided
• 49% could be
persuaded.
2003 CGS - AMROA
On September 9th, Only 1 of 3
Undecided Voters Supported
Amendment 1
33%
67%
Support
Oppose
2003 CGS - AMROA
Tax Reform Must Be Tied to
Education to Succeed
• 38% listed
improved education
as the most critical
issue that they
supported
• 11% of all voters
were critical that the
tax package was not
tied solely to
education
2003 CGS - AMROA
Tax Reform Must Address
Confidence in Government.
• 31% did not see a
need for broad tax
change
• 13% of all voters
did not trust
government
• 10% did not
understand the
package
2003 CGS - AMROA
What Should We Cut?
– The Voters Speak First Choice
• 27% Eliminate
Waste.
• 14% Cut government
salaries.
• 12% Throw out the
bums.
• 4% Cut social
welfare programs.
2003 CGS - AMROA
Where Do We Find the Money?
– The Voters Speak First Choice
• 25% Lottery
• 11% Alcohol and
Tobacco
• 9% Property Tax
• 6% Sales Tax
2003 CGS - AMROA
There is Strong Opposition To:
• 68% Laying Off
Teachers
• 54% Cutting Aid
to Seniors/Children
• 50% Increasing
State Sales Tax
2003 CGS - AMROA
The Public Strongly Supports:
• 73% - Increase in
the Tax on Alcohol
• 64% - Increase in
the Tax on
Cigarettes and
Tobacco
• 63% - Introduce
a Lottery
2003 CGS - AMROA
The Public is Sharply Divided
About:
• Cutting State
Agency Budgets.
• Ending State
Support to the Arts.
• Ending Support for
Private Schools and
Universities
2003 CGS - AMROA
Lesson Learned 1
• Alabama voters
will not support
tax increases if
they are not
linked to specific
programs that
people support.
2003 CGS - AMROA
Lesson Learned 2
• Alabama voters
may support
limited tax
increases if
linked to
education.
2003 CGS - AMROA
Lesson Learned 3
• Alabama voters will not support tax
increases without restoration of faith
and confidence in Alabama
government.
2003 CGS - AMROA
Thank You
Center for Governmental Services
2236 Haley Center
Auburn University AL 36849-5225
Tel. (334)844-4781 Fax. (334)844-1919
www.auburn.edu/cgs
2003 CGS - AMROA