Wyatt Doss, Richard Benitez, & Chris Bastian
What is Public opinion?
Best defined as:


Aggregate of individual
views, beliefs and
attitudes held by a
community.
Composed of numerous
variants and factions
Why is it important?
The public are the
people responsible for
putting people in power
 They set the limit for
American foreign policy

Setting Parameters



Cannot set an
agenda, but can
limit it
Government officials
have to pay
attention to the
parameters set by
the public
Not doing so can
cost official his/her
career

Public can react at
the ballot box,
through protest
whether violent or
peaceful, and direct
opposition to the
law, e.g. Vietnam
Public opinion influences: Types of Conflict
More likely to support:

Countering aggression
(e.g. 9/11, Desert Storm)

Humanitarian aid &
Human rights violations
(e.g. Bosnia)
Less likely to support:

State building (e.g.
Gothic Serpent)

Regime change (e.g.
Muammar Gaddifi)
Public opinion influences: Demographics

Socioeconomic background (class structure and rank)
 Elite favor national security vs. masses tend to favor domestic
structure

Race (minorities vs. majority)
 Minorities tend to stray from military action vs. Whites who tend
favor military action

Education (low vs. high educational background)
 Tendencies for action differ among informed and uninformed

Gender (male tendencies vs. female tendencies)
 Males - tend to be hawkish v. Females - tend to be doves

Political ideology ( conservatives vs. liberals)
 Conservatives tend to favor force v. liberals favor diplomatic
options
Public opinion and the Presidency

The “Delegate”
 Taking public opinion seriously and into
account in the foreign policy decision
making process.
 E.g. Bill Clinton

The “Trustee”
 Taking little notice into public opinion, since
the President is the top decision maker
anyways.
 E.g. George W. Bush
Prelude to the Gulf War

Operation Just Cause: Panama, Dec 1989

President Bush’s Approval Rating
July 19/22, 1990: Gallup places
Bush’s Job Approval at 60%,
lowest number in 11 months
(1242 people surveyed)
Aug 3/4 & Aug 9/12 1990:
Two consecutive polls place
Bush’s Approval at 74%
(1227 & 1241 people surveyed)
Early Events and Trends

August 2, 1990: Iraqi forces invade and occupy Kuwait
 Aug 3/4: Bush’s approval rating rises 14 points to 74% [1227, Gallup]

August 6: UN Security Council Resolution 661

August 7: US forces begin deploying to Saudi Arabia
 Aug 9/12: Bush’s approval rating remains at 74% [1241, Gallup]

August 20: President Bush makes refers to 3,000 Americans held
in Kuwait as hostages
 Sep 10/11: Do you think the US made a mistake in sending troops to
Saudi Arabia? 76% No, 19% Yes [Gallup]
Events and Trends

September 11: President Bush, speaking before a joint
session of Congress, refers to Saddam’s aggression, his
oil monopoly, and the growing international coalition

Oct 10: Nayirah Testimony before the Congressional
Human Rights Caucus

Four Polls are conducted during September and October: An
average of 47% of Americans believe that the Gulf Crisis is
worth going to war over, 43% do not believe so. [Gallup]
Oct 27/28: How would you rate the president’s handling of
foreign policy? 48% - Excellent or Above Average, 29% - Below
Average or Poor [KRC Communications Research]

Events and Trends

Nov 1: President Bush makes first public comparison between
Saddam and Hitler
 Nov 1/4: 61% Approve of how Bush is handling the crisis

Nov 8: An additional 150,000 troops are announced for
deployment to Saudi Arabia
 Nov 15/18, (1,018 people surveyed, +/- 3%) Gallup:
○ 54% Approve of how Bush is handling the crisis; Do you support
the original decision to defend Saudi Arabia? 65% Yes
○ Do you approve of the decision to send at least an additional
150,000 troops to the region? 47% Yes
○ If the current situation does not change by January, would you
favor the US going to war to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait?
37% Yes, 51% No
 The group in favor is more likely to be white than black, male than female, and
republican than democrat
Events and Trends

Nov 29: UN Security Council Resolution 678
 Nov 29/Dec 2, Gallup:
○ If the current situation does not change by January, would you
favor the US going to war to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait? 53%
Yes, 40% No (27% increase in two weeks)
○ Do you think the US made a mistake in sending troops to Saudi
Arabia? 66% No, 29% Yes (Statistically insignificant change
 Jan 3/6, 1991, Gallup:
○ When reminded of UN Resolution 678 and the fact that allies are
involved, support for military action is at 62% with 32% opposed
○ Without a reminder of the UN or the term “allies,” support for
military action falls to 52% with 39% opposed
Public Opinion and Congress
Jan 10/12, 1991: Congress debates a resolution that
would authorize the president to use military force to
enact UN SC Resolution 678
 The general trend of conservatives being in favor of
military action while liberals tend to be opposed is
reflected by the fact that all Republican Congressmen
voted in favor of the resolution aside from 5 members

 Of the 10 Democrats in the Senate that voted in favor of
the use of force, 9 came from traditionally conservative
states: Alabama, Florida, Nevada, Tennessee, Louisiana,
and Virgina
 All 3 of the Republicans in the House that voted against
the use of force came from traditionally liberal states:
California, Maryland, and Connecticut
Public Opinion and Congress

During the congressional debate, a number of politicians
referenced public opinion as a primary reason for their
voting against the use of force:
 “Do we really want to go to war, with a country so deeply
divided on the issue--and it is deeply divided?”
- Representative David E. Bonier (D-Michigan)
 “This is not a war we, as a nation, are prepared to fight. We
may have the firepower, but we do not have the will.”
- Senator Mark O. Hatfield (R- Oregon)
 “I vowed … that I would never send troops into battle without
the backing of the American people.”
- Representative Douglas Peterson (D- Florida)
The Rallying Effect

Jan 16: The US bombing campaign begins against
Iraqi targets
 Jan 17/20, 3,002 surveyed by NYT/CBS:
79% believe the decision to begin military action was the right
thing to do while 18% believe the US should have waited
(27% increase in 2 weeks)
○ 87% of men, 74% of women, 89% of Republicans, and 66% of
Democrats polled believed it was the right thing to do
 Jan 3/6, Gallup: 59% approve of Bush and 31% disapprove
Jan 17/20, Gallup: 83% approve of Bush and 12% disapprove
The Rallying Effect

Jan 17/20: A New York Times/CBS survey is conducted of
550 adults who were opposed to the war in a Jan 3/6 survey
but who now supported military action
 Michelle Fabiano, a 23-year-old teacher in Glasco, N.Y., said: "I
just thought it got to a point where something needed to be
done. So much was invested -- our troops, other countries.“
 Wallace Anderson, a 71-year-old retired civil servant and World
War II veteran from San Antonio, said: "If you're going to have a
war, go ahead and have it. In World War II they didn't mess
around."
 All population groups in the survey had increased in their
support for military force: blacks, 23% to 57%; whites, 52% to
80%; men, 56% to 81%; women, 40% to 70%.
Gulf War Conclusion


The greatest factors that determined public support were
political ideology and the presence of a multilateral force
While President Bush certainly used aggressive rhetoric and
a focus on a variety of issues in order to muster support, he
continued to escalate US involvement despite a begrudging
public. It is possible that Bush anticipated greater support
once the conflict was underway as was the case in Panama,
but Robert Gates Robert Gates, who served as the Deputy
National Security Advisor during the Gulf War stated,
 “The president privately, with the most inner circle, made absolutely clear
he was going to go forward with this action even if he were impeached.
The truth of the matter is that while public opinion and the voice of
Congress was important to Bush, I believe it had no impact on his
decision about what he would do. He was going to throw that son of a
bitch out of Kuwait, regardless of whether the Congress or the public
supported him.”
Leading Up to Operation Joint
Endeavor






February 29th 1992 - Bosnia and Herzegovina
declare independence
April 1992 - Bosnian Serbs begin their siege of
Sarajevo
Early polling of public opinion on the conflict shows
that 79% of American people support sending U.N.
peacekeepers to Bosnia.
25% of Americans cannot identify a single ethnic
group fighting in Bosnia.
January 1993 - Bosnia peace efforts fail, war breaks
out between Muslims and Croats, previously allied
against Serbs.
January 20th 1993 – President Clinton takes office.
(Harris poll 7/7/1992), (Pew poll, 1/26/93)
U.S. and NATO Involvement in
Bosnia

April 1993 – NATO begins Operation Deny Flight and enforces
no-fly zone, using fighter aircraft based in the region.
PUBLIC OPINION: Do you support shooting down Serbian
planes violating the October 1992 no-fly zone? (61%, in Favor,
22% opposed)

August 1993 PUBLIC OPINION:
A.) Would you support military action if the U.S. undertook air
strikes alone? (27% in Favor)
B.) Would you support military action if it involved airstrikes
carried out alongside U.S. allies? (60% in Favor)

Citing the recent success in the Gulf War as a precedent,
“Vietnam Syndrome” was not a huge factor. The American
people were more open to aggressive action by the military and
at the start of the Bosnian conflict, but only under the condition
that the U.S. forces were not going in alone.
(Harris poll 4/28/93) (ABC poll 8/2/93)
The Paradoxical Public

August 1993- Would you favor or oppose the U.S. sending
ground troops as part of the peace-keeping force in Bosnia?
(48% opposed, 45% in favor)
The public seemed divided about whether or not to escalate
United States involvement in the region, with a slim majority
opposing sending peace-keeping troops.

Yet in the same month a different poll asked:
“Overall, would you say President Clinton has been too tough, not tough
enough, or about right, in his efforts to stop the Serbians attacking Sarajevo
and the Bosnians?”

In this poll, a 47% plurality answered that Clinton was not being
tough enough, with 39% saying that the president was doing
about right. This shows that different polls can derive conflicting
information and also that public opinion can shift back and forth
relatively quickly.
(CBS poll 5/6/93), (Harris Poll 8/26/93)
Escalation of Conflict
February 1994 - PUBLIC OPINION: Would you support U.S.
airstrikes in Bosnia if the president and Congress ordered
them? (65% Yes, 19% No)
Men: 69% Yes, 19% No
Whites: 64% Yes, 21% No
Women: 62% Yes, 25% No
Minorities: 58% Yes, 28% No
Republicans: 40% Yes, 44% No Democrats: 73% Yes, 16% No

The American people deferred judgement to the executive and
legislative branch and if they could come to an agreement
about military action, they would generally support it. Men and
Democrats were most likely to support the president and
Congress while minorities and republicans were the least
support the decision to carry out airstrikes.
 April 1994 - NATO launches its first close air support mission,
bombing several Serb targets at the request of UN. NATO
continues small scale airstrikes in coordination with the U.N. for
the next year.

NATO and UN Escalation
July 1995 - Srebrenica massacre, Safe zone of
Srebrenica is overrun by Bosnian Serb forces. Thousands
of Bosnian Muslim men and boys are massacred despite
the presence of UN troops.
 August 1995 - NATO launches Operation Deliberate
Force with large-scale bombing of 338 individual targets
Serb targets. The bombing lasted until September 20,
1995.
 November 1995 - As a result of the intense NATO
bombing, the Dayton Accords peace treaty is
signed. NATO agrees to provide 60,000 peacekeepers to
be deployed in late December to the region as part of a
one-year peace building operation.
 Approximately 20,000 of these forces are American as
part of Operation Joint Endeavor.

Public Opinion on the Dayton
Accords



December 1995 Do you think that the United States
should send 20,000 troops to Bosnia, or not?
Total: (29% in favor, 67% opposed)
Democrats: (39% in favor, 55% opposed
Republicans: (34% in favor, 63% opposed)
Independents: (28% in favor, 62% opposed)
Whites: (37% in favor, 56% opposed)
Minorities: ( 35% in favor, 56% opposed)
More than 2-to-1 total majority in opposition. This
included a majority of Democrats (55%) and
minorities (56%) who opposed the 20,000 troop
deployment – two key demographics for Clinton’s
support base.
(Harris Poll 12/5/1995)
Aggregation of U.S. Public opinion polls on Intervention in
Bosnia 1992-1995
Highest support at the beginning with U.N. humanitarian
missions and no-fly zone, and in the aftermath of the
Srebrenica massacre.
Clinton’s Decision
Clinton had a tendency to adopt a collegial approach to
decision-making and weighed the opinions of his advisors
higher than that of the public in this situation.
 Decided to stick with the NATO plan and commit 20,000
troops over the course of the next several months.
 Clinton claimed “there would be no peace in Bosnia
unless the United States made it happen” and pressed on
despite lack of support from the public and Congress
citing the War Powers Act as justification.
 Despite holding a Republican majority in both houses,
Congress returned to its Cold-War style of being
deferential with regards to military action. Both
congressional chambers chose to "support the troops but
not the policy”.

(New York Times, 11/29/95) (Foreign Affairs, 1996)
U.S. Reaction to presence in
Bosnia

February 1996 - Do you approve or disapprove of
the way Bill Clinton is handling the situation in
Bosnia? (44% approve, 43% disapprove)

The public was split relatively evenly with regard to
Clinton’s handling of the situation in the early months
of deployment. Many people felt the United States’
presence was not necessary in the region. Others
felt it was still “too early to tell” if the operation was a
success or not yet.
The majority of the 20,000 U.S. troops were
withdrawn from Bosnia by December 1996 at the
end of the one-year NATO mandate, but a small
band of U.S. troops remained in Bosnia as part of a
NATO plan to bring stability.

(CBS poll 2/22/96) (ABC News 2/25/96)
American Opinion in Hindsight


Almost a year after the majority of American troops were withdrawn a
1997 Pew poll asked the public about their opinion of Clinton’s policy in
Bosnia.
October 1997 - Do you approve of President Clinton’s record of foreign
policy in Bosnia?

Total: 54% Yes 34% No
Male: 55% Yes 36% No
Female: 53% Yes 32% No
Independents: 49% Yes 37% No

Family income:
$75,000+: 60% Yes 35% No
$50,000-$74,999: 57% Yes 34% No
$30,000-$49,000: 56% Yes 35% No
$20,000-$29,000: 52% Yes 35% No
Less Than $20,000: 53% Yes 33% No
White: 52% Yes 36% No
Non-White: 62% Yes 22% No
Republican: 36% Yes 55% No
Democrats: 74% Yes 17% No
Clinton had the most support from Democrats (74% approval), non-whites
(62% approval), and families with over $75,000 in annual income (60%) while
having the lowest approval rating amongst Republicans (36%) and
Independents (49%). Approval tended to decrease as family income decreased
(Source: Pew Research poll October 14-16, 1997)
The Public




November 1997 – 20% of Americans polled did not
know there were still U.S. troops in Bosnia.
Amongst the 80% who did know that troops were in
Bosnia 67% said that they approved of the job the
troops have done there while the remaining 23%
rated their performance as only fair or poor.
In hindsight the majority of people polled had a more
favorable view of the U.S. involvement after seeing
the results of peacekeeping operations.
The most favorable demographic groups were
democrats (73%), people with a 4-year degree or
higher (70%), and people with a family income of
$75,000 or higher (68%). Women and minorities
showed support as well, but not as overwhelming.
(Source: Harris poll 12/5/97)
President Clinton’s Approval Rating
Can public opinion make an
impact?

Public opinion, especially in matters of foreign
affairs, can be inconsistent and uninformed.
Examples:
- In 1993 only 25% of Americans could identify a
single ethnic group fighting in Bosnia
- In 1995 only 15% of Americans could find
Bosnia/Serbia on a map.

- In 1997 -5 years after polling on Bosnia began 1 in
5 Americans did not know there were still US troops
in Bosnia.
Public opinion is often split down the middle so it can
be hard for leaders to rely on the feelings of the
American people to make decisions.
(Pew poll, April 1995)
Did public opinion make a
significant impact in this case?





In the early stages of the conflict, perhaps. But not much
effect in the long-run.
There was majority support for U.N. and humanitarian aid
in the beginning of the Bosnian conflict but people
became wary of committing troops on the ground.
Despite lack of support from the public (only 29% in one
poll) and no backing from the Republican-controlled
Congress, Clinton made a plan to deploy 20,000 troops
on the ground.
Public didn’t put up much of a protest and Congress
avoided checking presidential War Powers.
In hindsight it worked out well but had the operation been
unsuccessful their likely would have been outcry from the
public and Congress.
Conclusions

The public during both crises responded with
greater approval for the use of military
support when allies were involved

In the Gulf War, liberals did not initially
support the conflict. While this matches with
general trends between liberals and conflict,
democrats supported Clinton. This could be
about the natures of the conflicts or about
party allegiance to the president.