March 2009

Inventory Visibility -- A Provider’s Perspective

John Brockwell

Global Supply Chain Practice Lead

Trade Management Consulting

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Topics

Why is J.P.Morgan in this space?

The business problem we’re trying to solve

Industry Statistics

Adoption

Scope

Ranges of savings

Why is this good business for a service provider?

What do we see happening in this area over the next couple of years

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JPMorganChase Bank N.A. Corporate Structure

Treasury and

Securities

Services

Investment

Bank

Asset and

Wealth

Management

Commercial

Banking

Card Services

 Treasury Services

 Global Trade

Services

 Worldwide

Securities

Services

 Credit and Rate

Markets

 Investment

Banking (Mergers and Acquisitions)

 Institutional

Equities

 Proprietary

Positioning

 JPMorgan Private

Bank

 Private Client

Services

 BrownCo (online trading)

 JPMorgan

Fleming Asset

Management

 Chase Middle

Market

 Asset-Based

Lending

Commercial Real

Estate

Equipment

Leasing

 Credit Cards

 Merchant

Processing

Retail

Financial

Services

 Consumer

Banking

 Auto and

Education

Finance

 Home Finance

 Insurance

 Small Business

Banking

Flexible Global Trade Management Offerings

TRADE MANAGEMENT

CONSULTING

Customs, export, and supply chain management

SCM Process design and optimization

Trade compliance assessments, compliance improvement plans, implementations and audits

Sourcing and

Fulfillment landed cost analysis

GLOBAL TRADE

MANAGED SERVICES

Outsourced import and export trade operations support

Product classification

Trade compliance resolution

Special trade program management

Brokerage and broker management

STATE-OF-THE-ART

TECHNOLOGY

Trade documents

Duty calculation and Customs clearance

Regulatory screening and automated license decision

Government reporting and agency/bureau interfaces

Consistently updated with the most recent trade regulations

TRADE FINANCE

Letters of Credit and

Open Account initiation

Electronic notification of

Purchase Order requirements to suppliers

Exception resolution

Government

Documentary compliance review

Settlement

Supply chain financing

REAL-TIME FINANCIAL & PHYSICAL SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICES FOR THE WORLD

We’re integrating systems and platforms to leverage the financial and trade information from export to import and on to final delivery

Exporter/Seller

Classify ECCN #’s

Jurisdiction Determination

Screen Orders

EAR/ITAR

Determine Licensing

Submit SED

Submit Export Dec

Track/Trace Shipment

Education & Training

Import Data review - 10+2

Trade Logistics Mgt

Supply Chain Security and

Safety- CTPAT/AEO

Forwarder

Track Shipments

Forwarder Processes

Select Carriers

Book Carriers

Consolidate Freight

Track Shipments

International

Carrier

Resolve Issues

Carrier Processes

Transport Goods

Track Shipments

On-time arrivals

Bulk Breaking

Broker

Manage Brokers

Broker Processes

Pre-Entry

Submit Entry

Clear Customs

Importer/Buyer

Import Processes

Classify HS #’s

Import Data Mgmt

Submit Pre-Entry

Manage Doc Creation

Minimize Duties

Declare Goods Value

Perform Liquidation

Education & Training

Export Declaration

Import Declaration

Government

Supporting

Technology

Post Entry Info

Supply Chain Security and

Inbound Landed Cost

Safety – CTPAT/AEO

Trade Management Professionals

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Global trade management costs are small as a percentage of the value of the goods traded but the activity is critical

Trade Management

Costs

People

Processes

Technology

Typically for large companies < .1% of goods value traded

Trade Management Affects

Revenue, Cost of Goods Sold, Inventory,

Development Expense, Sales and General

Administration (SG&A), Days Purchases

Outstanding, Days Sales Outstanding

Operational staffing

Supply Chain Flow - Defects in the Trade

Management process can and do stop the supply chain

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Supply Chains have become more global, more extended, and riskier

Supplier

Components

Manufacturing

Distribution

Consumers

Customer

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Future trends demand flexible “smart” global supply chains that support operations

Supply chain security programs

 Failure to plan and develop secure supply chains will result in significant disruptions when supply chains are threatened

Environmental and Safety regulatory concerns

 Failure to incorporate the regulations in supply chain processes can expose companies to disruptions, seizures, significant fines and inventory write-downs

New intense competition for demanding global customers

 Highly efficient “Greenfield” competitors are entering the global markets

 Customers in all global markets are demanding high product availability and reliability, creating intense competition and high risk of “diminished value”

Security, Environment and Customer Demands create significant risk to inventory value, we have a choice, to let it happen or manage it with flexible supply chains

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More hand-offs in the supply chain decreases reliability

Domestic factory to the store, 3 days at 95% reliability

1 day 2 days 18 days

1 day 3 days

International factory to the store, with 5 hand-offs and each leg 95% reliable for a total of 25 days. 0.95x0.95x0.95x0.95x0.95 = 77.4% reliability

Irregularities in goods flow like cargo cut-offs or customs delays can result in full days added to the supply chain, causing expedited freight and increased inventory

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The purpose of the Value Chain is to deliver product at maximum profit to the market

Selling Season

Expected Price

Service Level Requirement

For On Time Delivery

Diminished Price

Manufacturing

Outbound Logistics and

Inventory Investment Risk

Diminished Profit due to Higher Product,

Storage Cost,

Inventory

Obsolescence and

Write-downs

Inbound Logistics

Raw

Materials &

Components Product &

Distribution

Forecasting Costs

Time In Season

Selling Season Start

75% reduction in price

Out of Season

Selling Season End

Does not include lost revenue and profit from product service and follow-on sales

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If you think “Diminished Value” is an abstract term …

…………………………………….think again!

Inventory write-off, lost sales, lost service contracts, lost tie in sales, disappointed customers, expensive restock

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Understanding the Risks

Sourcing and Fulfillment decisions are often based on assuming an accurate Forecast and a Perfect Order

The Perfect Order

•Order Fill Rate 100%

•On-Time Delivery 100%

•Discount or mark-downs 10%

•100% Quality (no rejects)

•Accurate Paperwork 100%

© 2006 JPMorgan Chase and Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

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Perfect Order meets the Real World

“91% of companies reported that unexpected supply chain costs were eroding their anticipated low-cost country savings”

-- New Strategies for Global Trade Management

Aberdeen Research

Top Reasons:

 Transportation (due to variability)

 Raw Materials

 Supplier Charges

 Taxes and Tariffs

 Inventory

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Value of a Perfect Order

3% better = 1% additional Profit Margin

 5% better = 2.5% increase in Return on Assets

 10% better = $0.50 better Earnings Per Share

— AMR Research

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How are companies addressing the challenge?

 Majority of logistics departments currently monitor carriers’ websites for tracking

 Roughly one out of four companies utilizes an internally-developed tracking solution or maintains inventory visibility through their ERP solution

 Most tracking is focused on in-transit events

 Trend for increased monitoring of order acknowledgements and/or advanced shipping notices

 54% of these firms are automatically monitoring order quantities, shipment dates and order commitments

 Of companies that track 71% check shipment status at least once per day

-- A Study on Inventory Visibility

Logistics Management Magazine and Sterling Commerce, December 2008

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Why is this good business for a service provider to be in?

 The inventory visibility space is being attacked from many different angles

 ERP providers

 Pure inventory visibility software as a service (SaaS) companies

 4PL’s/3PL’s

 Global Trade Management companies

 Even Banks !!!

 Why?

 Leverage existing data flowing through systems

 Extend reach – become more “sticky” with the customer

 Economies of scale

 I/T infrastructure

 Software application logic

 Database formats

 Connections with carriers

 Provide better service to the client

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What is the future of inventory visibility?

 Increased integration with supplier and customer collaboration efforts

 Demand forecasting

 Supplier inventories

 Key milestones in supplier’s supply chain for raw materials and components

 Intra-company inventories

 Vendor managed inventory

 Trend towards re-creating a vertically integrated “enterprise” through information vs. brick-and-mortar

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