Michael Fuchs & Katrin Gasior
Background: Regulatory Impact
Assessment (RIA) in Austria
• New federal budget law 2013 (BHG 2013) entered into
force on 1 January 2013
•
systematic impact assessments have to be part of every
consultation material and the legal material provided to the
Austrian parliament
•
Nine impact dimensions  SORESI provides RIA in the
field of social affairs
• Contractor and Coordinator: Austrian Federal Ministry
for Employment, Social Affairs and Consumer
Protection
• Project partners: ISER, Katholieke Universiteit
Leuven, Making Choices, BRZ, Statistics Austria
Ex-ante
evaluation
tool
Evidence
based
policy
Impact
assessment
Pilot
project
Online
microsimulation
model
free
access
user
friendly
Chances of SORESI
Political participation = “currency of citizenship”
(Kulinski et.al. 2000: 791)  2 pre-conditions:
1. “must have ready access to factual information that
facilitates the evaluation of public policy.”
2. „must use these facts to inform their preferences.“
SORESI =
• Information on current social benefits and tax regulations
• Opportunity to try out reform scenarios yourself and to analyse
their effects
• Not only for civil servants but the ‚broader‘ public
Limitations of SORESI
• Simplification of reality  not all parameters can be
simulated in detail (e.g. unemployment benefits)
• Not all social benefit and tax regulations can be
displayed on the input mask
• Input-data: Sample size, coverage of different income
elements in EU-SILC (e.g. assets and expenditure
side)
• “basic” knowledge of Austrian tax and benefit system
and statistical results required
⇒ Macro validation  good results
⇒ …work in progress…
SORESI - work flows
Webinterface:
Input parameter
1
Webinterface:
Output tables
Work flows in the
background
Euromod.exe
2
4
Mikro data: Base vs.
Reform
3
STATA Do-File
Policy rules
EU-SILC
Uprate
2013
2011
Income 2010
2010  2013
2013 results, based on:
• 2011 employment
status
• incomes uprated to
2013
Example: family allowance reform
• New support model for families
 decided by the council of ministers in June
2013
Family allowance NEW:
better, simple, transparent
Source: press release BMWFJ, 18 June 2013
Child care provision:
focus on children <3
100 Mio./year for the
federal states
Family allowance NEW
2013
Reform
Basic amount (monthly)
Age 0-2
105,4
180,0
Age 3-9
112,7
180,0
Age 10-18
130,9
200,0
Age 19-23*
152,7
220,0
2 children in the household
12,8
15,0
3 children in the household
47,8
75,0
Every additional child
50,0
60,0
Multiple child bonus**
20,0
-
Children with disability
138,3
150,0
Tax credit for children
58,4
-
100,0
100
-
Supplements (monthly)
School start bonus (annual)
* if in full-time education
** Income test: household income < 55,000 and 3rd child onwards
SORESI – Results
Poverty risk & Income situation
2013
Reform
Diff.
At-risk-of-poverty rate
Households with children (age 0-19)
14
14
0 pp.
Single parent households
27
26
-1 pp.
Households with 3+ children
22
21
-1 pp.
All households
12
12
0 pp.
Households with children (age 0-19)
1.817
1.825
+8 €
Single parent households
1.412
1.419
+7 €
Households with 3+ children
1.651
1.661
+10 €
All households
2.021
2.025
+4 €
Monthly equivalised household net income
SORESI – Results
Fiscal assessment
2013
Reform
In Mio. EUR
Family allowance (incl. school start bonus)
3,077
4,543
Tax credit for children
1,261
-
Child care allowance (incl. supplement)
1,142
1,142
Single earner tax credit
226
226
Single parent tax credit
89
89
5,795
6,000
Total
Diff. in Mio. EUR
+205
Diff. in %
+4%
Results of the reform
• Impact on households:
• Decrease of poverty risk for families with children
rather low,
• slight increase in equ. household net income
• Reform of the family allowance would amount to
additional annual costs of € 205 Mio.
• 2 times as high as additional annual investment in
child care provision (€ 100 Mio/year)
• Already now clear emphasize on direct cash
benefits
Future developments
• Nowcasting (& Forecasting)
• Results for model households
• annual update (next: beginning 2014)
• improving simulation of certain benefits (e.g.
unemployment benefits, minimum income
benefits)  depending on data availability
and quality in EU-SILC  collaboration with
Statistik Austria
Thanks for your attention!
Test SORESI yourself:
Contact:
www.bmask.ac.at
/soresi
fuchs@euro.centre.org
gasior@euro.centre.org