DRIVING GROWTH IN
CHALLENGING TIMES
Todd Hale
SVP, Consumer & Shopper Insights
May 2, 2014
PANEL MEMBERS
• Barry Calpino
Kraft Foods, VP of Breakthrough Innovations
• Dave Deacon
PepsiCo, Director of Performance Insights
• Christian Thompson
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Kellogg’s, Senior Director of Shopper Insights
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GROWTH CHALLENGES
INFLATION SUBSIDES, BUT UNITS REMAIN SOFT
Billions
All Departments
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
2009
250
248
245
$775
$771
$760
$740
$714
$699
250
251
251
2010
2011
2012
2013
52 w/e
03/15/2014
Dollar Trend
+2
+4
+3
+1
+1
Unit Trend
+1
+1
-0
+0
+0
Average U Price Trend
+1
+3
+3
+1
+1
Any Promo U Trend
+2
-0
-2
+0
+1
Dollar Sales
Unit Volume
Shouldn’t an economic recovery be delivering more growth?
Source: Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), All Departments, All Brands (UPC), % Change, 52 week periods vs. year ago
4
CONSUMERS SHIFTING SPEND OR BUYING LESS
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience) – Unit Trend
Fresh Meat
Fresh Produce
Alcoholic Bevs
Deli
Dry Grocery
Dairy
Packaged Meat
Non-Food Grocery
HBA
Frozen Foods
General Merch
Total All Depts
12
4
3
2
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-3
0
Shouldn’t an economic recovery be delivering more unit growth?
Source: Nielsen Scantrack, Total U.S. – All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), 52 weeks ending 03/15/2014 (vs. year ago), UPC-coded
5
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
“DEATH BY A 1,000 CUTS”
Aging
population
Delayed family
starts
Smaller
households
Multicultural
infants
Immigration
Job market
Payroll taxes
Income
squeeze
Food stamps
Gas prices
Weather
impact
Higher
prices/reduced
promotions
Alternative
channels
Away-fromhome
consumption
Prepared
meals
Consumption
patterns
DIY movement
Units
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CONSUMER & SHOPPER INSIGHTS
CONSUMER & SHOPPER INSIGHTS
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Panel Questions
1.
How is your organization leveraging consumer &
shopper understanding to drive growth today & in the
future?
2.
Our economic recovery is not equal for all shoppers &
consumers. How attuned is your organization to this
fact & how do you leverage consumer & shopper
insights to align your sales, merchandising, &
promotional efforts to win spending at the economic
extremes?
8
PRICE, VALUE & INNOVATION
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
HOW LOW IS “LOW”?
Source: Company websites
10
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
WALMART ROLLS OUT ONLINE SAVINGS TOOL
Source: Walmart (https://savingscatcher.walmart.com/)
11
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
CONSUMERS WILL PAY MORE IF THE BENEFITS
OUTWEIGH THE PRICE
Sources: MultiAd Kwikee, Target (k-cups) & company websites
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PRICE, VALUE & INNOVATION
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Panel Questions
1.
Are you bringing greater value to income-challenged
shoppers through your promotions or through
product innovation?
2.
How do we bring breakthrough innovation to
center-store categories & how do we manage those
where consumer demand or category relevance in
waning?
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E-COMMERCE
E-COMMERCE THE BIG WINNER
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
CAGR 2013 to 2018
E-Commerce
Pet
Discount Dept
Dollar
Sporting Goods
Club
Convenience/Gas
Supercenters
Drug
Supermarkets
Toy
Home, Bed & Bath
Auto
Home Improvement
Liquor
Books
Mass
Electronics
Department
Office
Apparel
Winning Share
Average Growth
Losing Share
-4%
Source: Nielsen TDLinx & Nielsen Analytics
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
15
E-COMMERCE COMING TO CPG, BUT @ WHAT SPEED
Q4 2013
Q4 2012
Q4 2011
Q4 2010
Q4 2009
Q4 2008
Q4 2007
Q4 2006
Q4 2005
Q4 2004
Q4 2003
Q4 2002
Q4 2001
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Amazon sales growth very impressive
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Retail E-Commerce Sales
% of Total Retail Sales
Retail E-Commerce Sales % Change vs. Year Ago
AmazonFresh launches in Los Angeles
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; company reports & websites
Global annual sales growth versus prior year (in billions)
Percent
U.S Dollars (billions)
E-Commerce steadily gaining share
$13.4
Amazon
$7.5
$1.6
Walmart
Kroger
Step on the gas! Who can get there faster?
16
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
“THE NEW WAY TO SHOP FROM HOME”
https://fresh.amazon.com/dash
17
AMAZON DEBUTS PRIME PANTRY
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
But will Amazon Prime members be willing to pay $5.99 per box?
Source: Amazon.com
18
PEAPOD EXPANDS NUMBER OF PICK UP LOCATIONS
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
“Ahold has a company-wide target to triple its online food sales by 2016”
Peapod also has bulked up its physical presence, adding 120 pickup locations
on the East Coast, where New York-based Fresh Direct LLC leads, and five in
the Chicago area since August 2012. On the East Coast…customers can pick up
orders at Stop & Shop and Giant grocery stores. [In the Chicago area],
customers can visit locations in Palatine, Deerfield, Lincolnshire, Schaumburg
and Arlington Heights in repurposed bank branches or fast-food restaurants.
Crain’s Chicago Business
Jan. 20, 2014
Source: Ahold; Peapod; Crain’s Chicago Business, Chicago Tribune
19
HARRIS TEETER DEBUTS ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
$99.95 for the entire year, no limit to number of orders placed; curbside pick up
Source: Harris Teeter
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E-COMMERCE
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Panel Questions
1.
Do you see e-commerce having a positive or
negative impact in your categories?
2.
How should brick & mortar retailers look to get
engaged in e-commerce?
a)
Pure-play model?
b)
Click & collect?
c)
????
21
STAY CONNECTED
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
http://www.nielsen.com
Todd.Hale@nielsen.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub
/todd-hale/a/353/613
@ToddHaleNielsen
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