Combating terrorism:
An Event Tree Approach
Talk at the
BTR 2003 Conference
Richard Wilson
Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics
Harvard University
March 21st 2003
First task:
Define the problem.
Next task:
break it into component parts
factorizable as much as possible
Then follow Sequence of Events
Step 1. The Creation of a Terrorist
Step 2. A Terrorist Enters Society
Stp 3.Terrorist Exploits Vulnerability
It is usually easiest to address the first
step in a chain of events
Definition of a Terrorist (OED)
The terrorists, as they were justly denominated, from
the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in
implicit subjugation by a merciless severity (1795)
Several notables are believed to be more or less
implicated in the acts of the Terrorists (1905)
Miss G...., daughter of a Wexford terrorist, directed
many of the tortures which were so extensively
practiced (1866)
some book of the religious terrorists which tended
to infuse the alarm of foul perdition(1805)
Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang
of terrorists?
even though they were the legitimate government of
Germany, originally elected by the people?
Were opponents of Hitler terrorists?
Esp. Colonel Von Stauffenburg
who tried to assassinate Hitler
with a bomb in a brief case?
Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they killed
Tutsis although they were the legitimate government?
Were the Young Turks terrorists when they
victimized the Armenians in 1916?
Or were the Armenians terrorists because they were
not model citizens?
Were (and are) the opponents of British rule in Ireland
terrorists?
Has the situation changed since partition in 1922?
Is the government of Russia guilty of
terrorism against the people of Chechnya
(who have as much voting power as other residents of Russia)
or
are the radical Chechens guilty of
terrorism against Russia?
Or both?
Is the government of Sri Lanka acting
like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the
north, or are the Tamils a bunch of
terrorists to be tamed?
Is the government of Sri Lanka acting
like the Jacobins against the Tamils of
the north,
or
are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists
to be tamed?
Was the US terrorising people in
WACO Texas, or fighting
terrorists?
Timothy McVeigh thought the former
Was General Custer fighting a band of
Indian terrorists, or
were the Indians fighting an oppression
worse than the
French had experienced in 1795?
Was Castro a terrorist or a
freedom fighter when he opposed
the government of Batista?
What about those branded by
Castro as terrorists to whom the
USA has given citizenship?
Is the government of Israel a terrorist
government because they follow " the
cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the
(Palestinian) people in implicit
subjugation by a merciless severity"?
Or are the Palestinians all terrorists
because they belong to an organization
opposing the present government of Israel
and its policies and in its early days, aim
to drive them into the sea?
Probably both sides
are now wrong.
Possible criteria for choosing sides
A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no
airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983).
The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1994)
"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the
accidental opinion of the day; but a series of
oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and
pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too
plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing
us to slavery".
Gerry Adams?
One man's terrorist is
another man's freedom fighter.
Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945
PM of Israel 1978, Nobel Peace Prize winner
Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo,
first President of Tunisia
A rebellion is a Revolution that does
not succeed (Victor Weisskopf)
May 1940, I learned unarmed combat.
Was I becoming a terrorist or a freedom fighter?
30 years ago a friend of mine
became a terrorist.
Then he became a freedom fighter
Within 6 months he was a
statesman
Now he works with the poor.
He did not change. He lives in
Bangladesh
Step 1
Stop Terrorists being created
Thus what are:
The root causes of Terrorism?
Despair? Basic Evil thinking?
Address Grievances
EVEN IF YOU DESPISE THE
TERRORIST
Step 2.
Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length
Resolve major trouble spots
before they fester
Any Domestic Dispute lasting 50
Years must be addressed
Kashmir
Israel – Palestine
Ireland
Whey do I suggest 50 years?
Physicists think million years
After 50 years terrorism gets
exported.
Think where we want to be in 100
years
Ignore who did what to whom and
when
Event Tree Analysis: step 3
Imagine what a terrorist might do to society
and
make it hard for him to do it
Combating Terrorism and Reducing Accidents
are similar
.
Address the Low Probability High Conseqence
Accident: The terrorist will.
Technically easy but a myriad of places to
intervene
A terrorist can switch targets
I will “fight the last war” and
make my comments on the
World Trade Center
In 1991 Herbert Levine
(founder of Asbestospray) said that
“If a fire breaks out above the 50th floor
(where asbestos stopped)
the building will fall down.”
Pilots would now resist a
hijacking
Bar cockpit doors
Hidden switch to take control of
plane to ground or
automatic pilot
(already suggested)
Few plans for a major fire at WTC?
(FEMA report)
Insulation not tested for durability
Fire and initial impact destroyed all safety
mechanisms
(Common mode failure should have been
foreseen!)
Helicopter fire fighters?
Protect buildings by cables from
towers or balloons?
Inspect the insulation of all
buildings over 50 stories high.
(expensive but possible;
e.g. apply a heat source to steel in
one location and compare the
temperature - time profile with
calculation)
Night Clubs have accidents
Night Clubs are terrorist targets
Addressing the first is a good
cure for the second
Always look for emergency exits
Every club owner and every
performer must be aware of fire
danger
Designers of buildings and large
facilities must IN FUTURE
always perform a risk analysis with
especial attention to possible
events:
with high consequence
yet low probability
Saboteurs and terrorists will
increase the probability
Safer Energy facilities
Do not store a lot of fuel in one place
near a lot of people in one place.
Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in
remote areas.
(In 1848 London decided to keep Petroleum
products 30 miles from London bridge in
Canvey Island)
Terrorism and Sabotage already
considered for nuclear power.
Cities have been built on Estuaries
Hydroelectric dams are upstream.
A dam failure (low probability)
can have high consequence.
If Littleton dam on the Connecticut
failed in time of flood it would take
out all dams downstream
In 1944 Wing Commander Gibson
destroyed a dam in Germany with
a 6000 pond bomb in unfavorable
circumstances.
In 1975 Littleton dam was
unguarded and I could drive onto
it to unload a bomb
Electricity Distribution Systems
are easy to sabotage.
A major storm in France
cut the system at a few places,
and caused major havoc.
In 1944 bored US officers
shot at insulators on transmission towers
and shut off power to the
Dartmouth naval base.
20 well placed saboteurs with shot
guns could do as much.
Avoiding anthrax scare easy
Irradiate all mail at sorting offices
(Co60 or Cs137)
poisoning water supplies?
Emergency purification?
Mobile water purifiers
are simple
We must be prepared for a new
disease whether introduced by
terrorist or natural causes
Sabotage has always been easy:
- Disgruntled Con.Ed. Worker
blew up substations
- Forest worker set a major fire
- Schoolboys synthesized H2S to
get an afternoon off
How much effort should we make
for reducing it?
Some terrorists are now educated.
Also some act in concert
Modern Society is Vulnerable
Sabotage and terrorism are
unfortunate facts of life.
They will be with us until the end
of the human race.
Physicists (and economists)
like a quantitative approach
to decide how much to spend.
EPA says $6.1 million per
calculated life.
But terrorism is more disturbing
and society clearly wants to pay
more
We must not let terrorism
distort our lives.
Other risks are bigger.
Car accidents:
45,000/yr vs. 3,500 once
Drugs destroy society more
Security vs. Freedom
Our human rights are what
makes life worth living.
“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to
killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.”
Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com