Understanding Your Market:
Leveraging Trends and Research to Enhance
Admissions and Communications
Myra McGovern, Director of Public Information, NAIS, mcgovern@nais.org
Amada Torres, Director of Academic Research, NAIS, torres@nais.org
Overview
 Demographic Trends
 Demographic Research Tools
 Perceptions of Independent Schools
 Messages that Resonate
 How to Counter Stereotypes and Capitalize on
Strengths
Demographic Trends
Changing School-age Population

After a 20 percent increase between 1990 and 2003,
enrollments in both public and private schools are
expected to increase at lower rates between 2003 and
2015.

Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools
is projected to increase 7% between 2003 and 2015 (as
opposed to a projected 6% increase for public schools).
Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.
Changing School-age
Population
Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.
Aging of America

Today, 12 percent of the total population in the United States is over
65 years of age. By 2050, it is projected that 21 percent of the total
population will be over 65 years of age. (U.S. Census Bureau, “Facts for
Features: Older American Month Celebrated in May”).

As the baby boomer generation ages, health care and pension costs
will greatly increase and cause social and financial institutions to
become strained. These strains could lead to a decrease in political
and financial support for K-12 education.
Aging of America
Population of the United States by Age: 1950-2050
70%
60%
59%
58%
60%
54%
53%
50%
40%
53%
38%
34%
30%
29%
27%
26%
20%
26%
21%
20%
10%
0%
12%
9%
8%
13%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0-19 years
34%
38%
38%
32%
29%
29%
27%
26%
26%
26%
26%
20-64 years
58%
52%
53%
57%
59%
59%
60%
57%
54%
54%
53%
65+ years
8%
9%
9%
11%
12%
12%
13%
16%
20%
20%
21%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base-Population Pyramids,
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
Family Structure

In 2003:
– 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived with two
married parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980)
– 23 percent lived only with a mother
– 5 percent lived only with a father
– 4 percent lived with neither parent. (U.S. Census Bureau,
“America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003”)

The number of two-parent families is projected to slowly decrease
to 23.1 million by 2010. (U.S. Department of Commerce,
“Projections of the Number of Households and Families in the
United States: 1995 to 2010”)
Family Structure
Race and Ethnicity

Whites will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by
2015 (compared with 70% in 1990). (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social
Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”)

Hispanics are expected to nearly double from 12 % in 1990 to
21% in 2015. (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of
Children: 1990-2015”)

Half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025,
and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050.
(Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties,
Social Realities”)
Race and Ethnicity
Projected Population of the United States: 1970-2050
100%
87%
83%
80%
80%
81%
80%
79%
78%
76%
74%
76%
72%
69%
65%
60%
61%
58%
54%
50%
40%
20%
12%
11%
0%
1%
1970
9%
3%
6%
1980
1990
White alone
Hispanic (of any race)
13%
13%
2000
15%
18%
13%
14%
5%
6%
2010
2020
Black alone
White alone, not Hispanic
22%
20%
2030
15%
8%
2040
Asian alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, 'U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,'
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/.
24%
2050
Race and Ethnicity

The 65% increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only
230 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about
three-fifths. (Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What
Teachers Should Know”)

82% of US population growth since 2000 has been from nonwhites (Johnson, “People on the Move: Implications for U.S.
Higher Education.” College Board Review, Fall, 2006, pp. 4-9.)

At least 40% of all Americans have had some racial mixing in the
last three generations. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a
New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”)
Race and Ethnicity
Projected School Population by Top Populated State
(Excluding CA, TX, NY, and FL)
In Thousands
3,500
Illinois
3,000
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Ohio
2,500
Michigan
Georgia
Georgia
New Jersey
2,000
New Jersey
North Carolina
North Carolina
Arizona
1,500
Arizona
1,000
Year 2000
Year 2010
Year 2030
Educational Attainment

The share of children to be raised in families with collegeeducated parents is projected to increase from 27% in 1990 to
30% in 2015.

More than half (51%) of Asian children are projected to be raised
by college-educated parents in 2015, compared to 45% in 1990.
Source: Georges Vernes and Richard Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”.
Educational Attainment
Income Level in Columbus, OH
Household By Income Level in Columbus, OH: 2007
45%
40%
39.2%
35%
Median Household Income:$44,722
Average Household Income: $56,140
Per Capita Income: $24,509
High Income Average: $359,830
30%
25%
20.0%
20%
16.7%
15%
12.0%
10%
5.9%
2.7%
5%
1.8%
1.7%
0%
Less than
$35,000
$35,000 to
$49,999
$50,000 to
$74,999
$75,000 to $100,000 to $125,000 to $150,000 to
$99,999
$124,999
$149,999
$199,999
Source: NAIS Demographic Center, NAIS-EASI Demographics.
$200,000
and Over
The Barbell Effect
 The numbers of very wealthy and very poor
are growing, while the number of people in
the middle is shrinking

The gap between rich and poor is growing.
Disposable Income
The Middle Class: Dual
Income Family $75,000
~ “The Middle Class on the
Precipice,” Harvard
Magazine, February, 2006
Costs/ Demand Conundrum
• Wages have stagnated and costs are up.
• Tuition has grown substantially.
• Could drive down demand.
Cost vs. Affordability

Balancing operating expenses with affordable tuitions has been
made even more difficult by expansion of staff, skyrocketing
health insurance costs, offering competitive salaries/benefits,
escalating technology expenses, and facilities maintenance and
renovation costs.

The demand for individualized services has driven up tuitions. For
example, NAIS schools have seen an increase in instructional
support salaries from 2.8% or $500 per student in 1996 to 4.4% or
$896 per student in 2006. (NAIS, “ Financial Operations Core Sample StatsOnline Participating Schools,” June 2007)
Gen Xers Parents

Some characteristics of Gen Xers:
– Are children of divorce. 40% have grown up in single parent
families. As a result, they want a rich family life. While financial
success is important, personal lives take precedence.
– Have spent more time watching television than going to
school.
– Have an unrelenting desire to use and learn more about
leading edge technology.
– Are procrastinators, postponing commitments in order to
continue to evaluate options.
– Are a racially diverse group.
– Will pick up and leave a job that does not satisfy them.
Data-driven Decision Makers

In NAIS’s 2004 Hot Issues Survey, school leaders cited a growing
consumer attitude that is harder to manage (demands for
specialized and individualized services, rising demand for
information about the value-added of an independent education).

As tuitions rise, parental expectations for measurable outcomes
also grow. They want hard data about outcomes—college
graduation rates, job satisfaction levels, etc.

Forecasters predict that Generation X, who grew up on the
Internet, will demand even more hard data.
Women as Buyers
According to market guru Tom Peters:
“Start with women. They buy everything. Consider
these stats from the US, UK, Canada, Australia,
and New Zealand. Women’s share of purchases:
– Home furnishings ...94%
– Vacations ... 92%
– Houses ... 91%
– D.I.Y. (major “home projects”) ...80%
– Consumer electronics ...51% (66% home computers)
– Cars ... 68%
– All consumer purchases ...83%
– Bank account ... 89%
– Household investment decisions ...67%
– Small business loans/biz starts ... 70%
– Health care ...80%”
Source: Peters, “Everything You Need to Know About Strategy: A Baker’s Dozen Eternal Verities”
Women as Buyers (Cont’d)

Trend spotting guru Faith Popcorn summarizes: “Men and women
don’t think the same way, don’t communicate the same way, don’t
buy for the same reasons. He simply wants the transaction to take
place. She’s interested in creating a relationship.”
Educational Consumerism

Trend forecasters see “Ethical Consumerism” as a growing
movement making its way to education in the years ahead. Ethical
consumers base their purchasing decisions on ethical criteria
such as environmentalism and social responsibility.

In the coming years, parents and students may evaluate schools
on more than educational criteria.
What are the Challenges with These Parents?

Parents who are consumers are less loyal than they were a
generation ago. No longer good enough to say “just trust us.”

Some want their child and the school to be a “winner” whether it is
National Merit test or soccer.

Some parents are accustomed to go to the top when they want
something done.

Some demand grades be changed, their child not be cut from a
team, or the school settle typical teenage social issues.
The “Millennials” – “Baby on Board”

Born between 1980-1999 when the “thirty-something” baby
boomers decided they wanted to have children.
– Era of the “wanted child”
– Era of the “protected child”

Many adults changed their behavior towards children: children as
“prized possessions”-more protective of and fearful about; more
“precious”; what colleges are calling “teacup freshmen”—i.e..
fragile. “I’m special, so special…I need your attention.”

The Millennials distinguishing traits (Howe and Strauss, “Millennials
Rising: The Next Great Generation”):
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Special
Sheltered
Confident
Team-oriented
Achieving
Pressured
Conventional
The “Millennials” as Students
 Gravitate toward group activity
 Believe it’s cool to be smart
 Are fascinated by the new technologies
 Identify with their parents’ values and feel close to their
parents.
 Most racially & ethnically diverse
 Least Caucasian generation
– 20% of under 18 population is Latino (NAIS
Demographic Center)
– 1 in every 5 has an immigrant parent
Source: Oblinger, “Boomers, Gen-Xers, and Millennials: Understanding the New Students”
Demographic Research Tool
How to find out about your
community using the NAIS
Demographic Center?
1. Basic Reports for
Independent Schools:
They include variables
especially selected for their
relevance in the decisionmaking process for
independent school
administrators (school
population, households,
income, race/ethnicity, and
educational attainment).
– Summary Reports
– Detailed Reports
How to find out about your
community using the NAIS
Demographic Center?
2. Additional Reports for
Advanced Use: They
contain more general
variables that provide a
more sophisticated
analysis of the
demographic changes in
the American landscape.
– Quick Reports
– Ring Studies
– Quick Maps
– Rank Analysis
– Profile Analysis
Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends
Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends

An elementary girls’ school in Philadelphia, PA finds that the
population of school-aged girls is decreasing. What strategic
questions should it ask?
–
What percentage of all girls would we need to attract to
survive? Is that doable?
–
Do we consider going coed? Or merging with another
girls’ school?
–
If not, what financial planning do we need to do to help
us weather the downturn?
–
Can we work with the local businesses and the chamber
of commerce to attract new families to the area?
Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends
Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends

A school in San Antonio, Texas, finds that the population of people
of color in its area is growing rapidly. The school currently has 10%
students of color. What strategic questions should it ask?
–
Given the demographic changes, what percentage of
students of color should the school aim for?
–
What are the key characteristics that parents of color are
looking for in a school? Does the school highlight these
characteristics in its messages?
–
What communication channels should the school use to
reach out to the people of color in its community? Should
the school include other languages in its communications
with parents?
Case Study III: Changing Income Trends
Location: Boulder, CO
Cities Plotted:6
Cities Score Variable: Households with Income $35,000 to $49,999
Cities Score Colors: A B C D E
A - E Scores represent Quintiles of Concentration An area with A has a top 20% concentration of the Score Variable based on the Based ranking
Case Study III: Changing Income Trends

A school in Boulder, Colorado, finds that there are fewer middleclass families in its town and the school is increasingly attracting
students from the upper-most and lowest socio-economic
brackets. What strategic questions should it ask?
– Can we adjust pricing to attract more middle-class families?
Can we increase financial aid?
– Are middle-class families aware of all the options offered to
pursue an education in our school (need-based financial aid,
merit awards, tuition payment plans, and, tuition loan
programs)?
Perceptions of Independent
Schools
Individualized
Attention
Strong
Academic
Programs
Involved
Parents
Homogenous
Student Body
Independent
Schools
Small
Classes
Elitist
High
Tuitions
High Quality
Teachers
Safe
Environment
Isolated from
the Rest of the
Community
What are the elements of a quality school?
 Providing a safe environment
 Employing high quality teachers
 Maintaining discipline
 Keeping students motivated/enthusiastic about
learning
 Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel
 Preparing students academically for college
 Encouraging parents’ participation
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
What Attracts Parents to Independent Schools?

In a 2003 NAIS survey, current independent school parents
highlighted the following factors as influential in choosing an
independent education:
– Academic quality
– Small class sizes
– More challenging than public school options
– Reputation for college admissions.

One of the top reasons for sending children to independent
schools is dissatisfaction with public system.
Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School
Quality - General Public Opinion
Random Sample (n=501)
100
94
93
90
89
87
87
87
86
86
85
Percent
80
60
40
20
0
Providing a
safe
environment
Employing
high-quality
teachers
Maintaining
discipline
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Keeping
students
motivated and
enthusiastic
about learning
Supporting a
Preparing
climate that
students
says it’s okay academically
to study and
for college
excel
Encouraging
parents to
participate in
their child's
education
Preventing
drug and
alcohol use
Preparing
students for life
and career in a
global
economy
Attending to
the needs of
students
with
learning
disabilities
Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School
Quality - High Income Families Opinions
Targeted Sample (n=500)
100
97
97
95
93
91
88
84
84
83
82
Percent
80
60
40
20
0
Providing a
safe
environment
Employing
high-quality
teachers
Supporting a
Preparing
climate that
students
says it’s okay academically
to study and
for college
excel
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Keeping
students
motivated and
enthusiastic
about learning
Maintaining
discipline
Encouraging
parents to
participate in
their child's
education
Using
computers
and other
technology
to enhance
learning
Preventing
Preparing
drug and students for life
alcohol use and career in a
global
economy
In what areas does the public think that
independent schools excel?
 Safe environment
 Small class sizes
 Preparing students for
 Using computers/tech to
college
 Climate that says it’s

okay to study and excel 
 Maintaining discipline
 Encouraging parents’
participation
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006


enhance learning
High-quality teachers
Individualized attention
Offering opportunities to
be leaders
Keeping students
motivated about
learning
In what areas does the public think that
independent schools don’t meet
expectations?
 Preventing drug and alcohol use
 Music and arts programs/curriculum
 Having students involved in community service
 Involving students in athletics and sports
 Attending to the needs of students with learning
disabilities
 Having students drawn from a range of cultures/
races and income groups.
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Gap Analysis Among Targeted Sample
Percent Rating as
Extremely Important
(n=500)
Percent Rating
Independent
Schools As
Excellent
(n=360)
Percentage Gap
Between General
And Independent
School Ranking
Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities
76%
24%*
-52%
Preventing drug and alcohol use
83%
41%*
-42%
Employing high-quality teachers
97%
66%*
-31%
Having students drawn from a range of cultures, races and
income groups
53%
24%*
-29%
Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about
learning
91%
66%*
-25%
Offering solid programs in music and the arts
76%
57%*
-24%
Providing a safe environment
97%
74%*
-23%
Maintaining discipline
88%
65%*
-23%
Preparing students for life and a career in a global
economy
82%
60%*
-22%
Encouraging parents to participate in their child’s education
84%
64%*
-20%
Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel
95%
78%*
-17%
Note: “Extremely Important” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Not At All Important and 10 is
Extremely Important.
Note: “Excellent” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Very Poor and 10 is Excellent.
*Indicates a significant difference from the characteristic ranked as important at the 95% confidence level
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Messages that Resonate
What are all parents looking for in
schools?
There are two principles that parents in our research
indicate they most want to find in schools for their
children:
 Educating the whole child: nurturing critical
thinking, intellectual and personal growth.
 Attending to the child’s own particular needs.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
Gen X parents with young children are
most concerned about…
 Development and opportunity: Emphasis on
finding a school that offers a variety of activities
and classes. They want school to engage their
children and expose them to many things.
 Safety concerns: need to see that schools will
keep their children safe from accidents, bullies, or
other dangers.
 Too much selectivity and standardized testing:
concerned that putting too much pressure on their
children will teach them to dislike school.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
Parents of older children are most
concerned about…
 Rigorous academics: look for schools that
provide the necessary skills to prepare their
children for college and career.
 Safety concerns: concerned about safety,
specifically social dangers such as drugs, gangs,
and sex.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
African-American parents are most concerned
about…

Providing opportunity: want schools to open doors for their
children and help them succeed in life.

Economic and racial diversity: have practical concerns that their
children will be isolated in majority-Caucasian schools.

Before and after school care: single parents and dual-income
families in all groups say that before and after school care is
important, but the sentiment is most concentrated in the AfricanAmerican groups.

Standardized testing: are wary of standardized testing. They feel
that tests are not always accurate representations of children’s
abilities.

Religious affiliations: would prefer some religious influence in
their children’s education.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
Hispanic parents are most concerned
about…
 Rigorous academics: see a challenging curriculum as
a key to better prepare their children for later life.
 Emphasis on moral values and community service:
say that it is important for schools to support and
supplement moral values taught at home.
 Economic and racial diversity: would like their
children to be in diverse schools, but not if it means
lowering standards.
 Standardized testing: Are also put off by an emphasis
on standardized testing.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
Asian-American parents are most
concerned about…
 Reputation of the school: think that a good
reputation represents a composite of all the other
factors they value such as rigorous academics,
attentive teachers, etc.
 Allowing one’s child to be him/herself: want a
school that helps their children develop in their
own fashion, however they do not want a school
that allows lack discipline or their children to “run
wild.”
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
How to Counter Stereotypes and
Capitalize on Strengths
Why some parents won’t choose
independent schools?
 Economic and racial diversity: say that
independent schools are too often homogenous
institutions.
 Real world experience: say that the lack of
diversity in independent schools is a problem
because it does not give their children “real world”
experience.
 Elitism: say that independent schools both
institutionally and their student bodies are
insolated, elitist, and condescending.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
How to Capitalize on Strengths?
 Keep message of educating whole child front and
center
– Broad range of courses…. Unique approaches to
learning… not an overemphasis on standardized
testing…
 Demonstrate examples of individualized attention:
– “Small classes allow teachers to know students…”
“We take time to talk to parents/students and learn
what it takes to excite them.”
 Demonstrate safety (facilities, behavior policies, etc.)
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
How to Counteract Misperceptions?
 Diversity
– Focus on showing respect for all and communicate
how the school works to prevent isolation.
 Real world experience
– Counter with evidence of socio-economic, racial,
and religious diversity of the student body and ways
that students are engaged in their communities and
the world.
 Emphasize the success of alumni in post-school
careers and life. Highlight student work and
volunteer opportunities.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
Recommendations: Delivering the message
 Be attentive to the informal ways that a school’s
reputation spreads. Address current parents and alums
concerns openly and quickly so they remain strong
ambassadors.
 In addition to publications, be aware of the messages
on your website.
– Include information on the advantages of
independent schools and include supporting
evidence (i.e. college graduation rates)
– Use pictures of children from all racial and ethnic
groups.
– Display testimonials from current or alumni parents
and students. Create “do-er” profiles of successful
students, faculty, and alumni.
Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005
Final thoughts and strategies
Action Steps
 Gather data and solicit input from key constituencies.
Be data-driven rather than opinion-driven.
 Stay abreast of changing trends. (www.trendletter.com
or www.hermangroup.com)
 Assess the school’s position in light of the larger
educational landscape.
 Refine/ reaffirm your mission statement. Confirm it’s
still valid. Generate a one-sentence short-hand mission
statement with accompanying core values.
 Hone your messages and communication strategies.
NAIS Resources that Can Help
 NAIS Demographic Center
This tool is only available to NAIS Member Schools. It
is free. www.nais.org/go/demographics
 Admission and Marketing Tools (brochures, ad
templates, video clips, etc.) and Research
Find these free and low-costs tools at
www.nais.org/advocacy
 NAIS Independent School Survey Builder – to be
available to NAIS Member Schools in Oct/Nov 2007.