Inflation Problem Set Terms Definition Inflation A general rise in prices Hyperinflation Inflation that exceeds 10% annually Purchasing Power Refers to the ability of currency to purchase goods and services Deflation A general fall in prices; often occurs during recession; sounds good, but can apply to incomes Stagflation A combination of falling real GDP and rising price levels- typically caused by cost-push inflation; occurred during the 1970s with OPEC Oil Embargo The process of bringing down the rate of inflation Disinflation Inflation Rate Real Wage Real Income Shoe Leather Costs Menu Costs A measurement of how quickly prices are rising; can be measured using price indexes such as Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and the GDP Deflator Wage rate divided by price level: For this and Real Wage, think about our “Bag of Mystery.” Though inflation led “income” (beans) to increase, your purchasing power really did not change Income divided by price level Costs incurred when people try to prevent holding money; Ex- During periods of hyperinflation in some countries, people would be paid multiple times a day; They would get off work, run to make purchases, then come back to work. Costs faced by producers when they must change listed prices due to inflation (EX: print new menus, change prices on shelves….etc.) Unit of Account Costs Cost that results when inflation makes a currency a less reliable unit for measuring value Real Interest Rate Nominal interest rate minus rate of inflation; Example: If you are a saver, and the nominal interest rate is 6%, but the rate of inflation is 5%, then the real interest rate is only 1% A measure of overall level of prices in an economy Aggregate Price Level (We will mainly call it Price Level) Price Index Consumer Price Index (CPI) A measure of overall price level tied to a base year; enables the measurement of inflation An index that measures the price of a “market basket” of goods and GDP Deflator services typically purchased by the average urban consumer in a month; used to measure inflation. Used to measure inflation; A ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in that year (times 100): (Nominal GDP/Real GDP)X100 Producer Price Index (PPI) An index that measures the “market basket” of typical goods purchased by producers including raw materials and other factors of production Quantity Theory of Money MV = PY General idea that the amount of money in the economy can impact the overall rate of inflation Demand Pull Inflation (Define it and draw it.) Inflation that is caused by an overall increase in demand for products; Typically occurs during expansion of the business cycle. Cost-Push Inflation (Define it and draw it.) Inflation that is caused by an overall decrease in supply; This is usually caused by substantially rising producer costs. CONCEPT QUESTION How does inflation relate to purchasing power? ANSWER An increase in inflation leads to a fall in purchasing power, meaning each dollar will buy less than it did before How does hyperinflation Hyperinflation affects the monetary flow. People begin to lose faith in the relate to the circular flow of dollar as a medium of exchange. People will begin rushing to use their the economy? currency and not hold it. Also, due to the uncertainty of what prices will be tomorrow, people will only purchase necessities. This will begin to slow the circular flow and the overall economy will begin to shut down. Which type of inflation is Quantity Theory of Money is the main cause of hyperinflation. This occurs the primary cause of when the government prints too much money at one time (often to pay hyperinflation? debts). (Post World War I Germany, Bolivia in the 1980s) Discuss the actions of individuals and banks during a period of hyperinflation. What do they do to best protect themselves? What does each component of the following equation stand for? People begin to lose faith in the dollar as a medium of exchange. People will begin rushing to use their currency and not hold it. Also, due to the uncertainty of what prices will be tomorrow, people will only purchase necessities. Banks will refuse to lend unless the interest rate is adjustable so that they can protect themselves from inflation. M = Money Supply V = Velocity of Money (how quickly money is spent) P = Price Level Y = Real Output MxV=PxY Based on the equation above, if more money was put into the money supply, and the velocity of money stays constant, what will happen to price level and GDP? PY should rise, however, this rise will be driven by a rise in P, not a rise in Y Module 14 – Check Your Understanding p.140 #1 Shoe-leather costs will be lower because people can use electronic means 24-7 to make necessary transactions. #2 If inflation stops, then the 0% interest rate will be less than the anticipated 2-3% inflation rate. The real interest rate will be higher than anticipated, meaning lenders will gain and borrowers will be paying higher “real” interest rates, though the nominal interest rate will be the same. GainLender / Lose - Borrower Multiple-Choice Questions p.140 # 1 2 3 4 5 Answer Explanation e I – definition; II looks like it could be false, but levels of prices may not matter because nominal wages /incomes may keep up to make purchasing power the same; III- the fact that the % change in price matters is why we measure the rate of inflation- key issue is are INCOMES rising at the same % as price level C Real wage is wage rate divided by the price level; Nominal wage is rising at the same rate as price level, therefore REAL WAGE is the same – in other words, purchasing power has not changed. B Definition of shoe-leather costs D Inflation makes a currency less reliable in terms of measuring the value of something c Definition of menu costs FRQ #2 a. Real Interest Rate 0% (Nominal Interest Rate – Rate of Inflation) b. You paid no real interest for the couch. You borrowed enough money to buy a couch, and after inflation, you paid exactly what it would have cost to buy the couch. c. The lender lost. They had expected to make a 5% gain, but due to the unanticipated inflation, they received a real interest rate of 0%. Module 15- Check Your Understanding p.147 #1 #2 #3 Pre-Frost Oranges (100 X 0.20) = $20 Grapefruit (50 X 0.60)= $30 Lemons (200 X 0.25)= $50 Total Basket Cost: $100 Post-Frost Oranges (100X.40)=$40 Grapefruit (50 X 1.00)=$50 Lemons (200 X 0.45)=$90 Total Basket Cost: $180 This market basket has experienced an 80% increase in price due to the frost. In the book example, the price increase was 84.7%. The difference is due to the makeup of the basket. There are more lemons in the second basket. They increased in price by 80%. There were fewer oranges in the second basked. They increase in price by 100%. Hence, we see that the composition of a market basket matters. If you put more of an item that increase in price by a greater rate, then the CPI will rise more quickly. If you put less of that item, then the CPI will not matter as much. a. A 10-year old market basket will not contain as many cars as people actually purchase. Car prices are rising as well. Therefore, the 10-year old market basket will UNDERSTATE the rise in prices for consumers because it won’t include enough cars. b. A 10-year old market basket will not include broadband at all. There would be no way to reflect the gradual fall in prices of the internet access. Therefore, the rise in prices would be overstated. [(New-Old)/Old] X 100 207.3 – 201.6 = 0.028 X100 = 2.8% 201.6