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Likelihood of Completion Depends on Level of Unpreparedness The likelihood of comple ng the developmental math sequence Community College Pre-College Level Remedial Math Sequence is a func on of where you start 4 Levels Below 3 Levels Below 2 Levels Below Likelihood of comple ng the developmental sequence star ng at each level 3-Levels Below 17% 8% 4-Levels Below 1 Level Below 70% 1-Level Below Statewide Remedial Math Success 35.0% 30.0% Remedial Math Completion State 25.0% 20.0% Remedial Math Completion African American 15.0% Remedial Math Completion Hispanic 10.0% 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2 The Renegades Journey Students take test at BC and are placed by test scores. New students will still take test, But grades in English and Math will be given first consideration for placement. Placement is based on a combination of grades and test scores. Prior and 2013 2016 Students take test at high schools and BC and are bumped up one level above test score by senior HS GPA and course grade. 2014 Students are placed by Jr HS GPA and placed in English or initial bumped up in Math and then placed in next class by Sr HS course grade. 2015 Forces at plan on BC • CCRC Research Belfield and Crosta (February 2012) Predicting Success in College: The Importance of Placement Tests and High School Transcripts http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/media/k2/attachments/predicting-success-placementtests-transcripts.pdf Scott-Clayton, J (February, 2012) Do High-Stakes Placement Exams Predict College Success? Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/publications/high-stakes-placement-exams-predict.html Clayton, Crosta, Belfield (Oct 2012) Improving the Targeting of Treatment: Evidence from College Remediation. National Bureau of Economic Research www.aeaweb.org/aea/2013conference/program/retrieve.php?pdfid=106 • John Hetts & Terrence Willet RPGroup (2013). Long Beach City College STEPS (Student Transcript-Enhanced Placement Project) http://www.rpgroup.org/projects/student-transcript-enhancedplacement-project • Peter Bahr -Bakersfield College Report Pathways in Developmental Math and English at Bakersfield College:Historical Analysis of Student Course-Taking Behavior, 2000 to 2013 by Peter Riley Bahr Center for the Study of Higher and Postsecondary Education, University of Michigan Stage 2 2014 Campus Based 84% of students tested in as remedial Increased student placement in transfer level math by 9% and in Transfer English by 3% Saved over 361 semesters through bumping 199 semesters Placed hire through testing at campus level 199 semesters by accelerating and compression 824 semesters saved in this year with the 454 students that had completed records Progress of First-time Students in Development Mathematics at Bakersfield College First Attempt Dev Math Skills 3,551 students attempted 65 % successful Lost 24% First Attempt Arithmetic/Pre-Alg 8,566 students attempted 56 % successful Lost 12% First Attempt Beginning Algebra 11,765 students attempted 43 % successful Lost 11% First Attempt Intermediate Algebra 9,593 students attempted 48 % successful Lost 21% Only 1,456 (41%) students attempted next level test Only 3,784 (44%) students attempted next level test Only 3,823 (32%) students attempted next level test Only 2,588(27%) students attempted next level test Math Success for all BC 2014-15 and 2014 cohort and 2015 cohort 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Pathway Cost to Students BC 2014-15 all success 2014 Cohort success HS GPA & ENGL Grades, ENGL 53 2015 Cohort Success Math B22 Math B6A Math B1B $208,851 Math B1A (Pre-Calc) Math B70 (Intermediate Algebra) ACDV 201, ACDV 65, ENGL 60, ENGL 50 With Accelerated Classes creates a great cost savings and great opportunity for students to succeed Math B60 (Beginning Algebra) Math B50 (Pre-algebra) ACDV B72 accelerated Arith & Pre-algebra) ACDV B77 (Arithmetic) $1,677,552 Combining Multiple Measures BC Philosophy behind MMs and Assessment • • • • • Tests aren’t always the best measures Tests alone are TERRIBLE measures The goal is to predict success More information provides better placement We need to simplify the algorithm – junior year grades • Not perfect, iterative – don’t wait • Thousands of reasons to START NOW 10