Errors in Cognition
Obstacles to Problem Solving
• Hindsight Bias: after an event occurs, believing you knew
the event would take place prior to it happening
– The “I knew it all along” phenomenon
– Monday Morning Quarterbacking
• Sports fans criticize coaching
decisions after they see how those
decisions have already played out.
If you claim you “knew the ending”
to The Sixth Sense before it
happened, you’re probably
committing hindsight bias.
Obstacles to Problem Solving
• Confirmation Bias: looking for evidence to prove your
belief true
– Once we make up our mind about something, we only “look” for
evidence that proves us right.
– This is sometimes a step during the self-fulfilling prophecy!
– People typically watch news stations “slanted” to their view.
I form a belief that Jacob
is a wonderful student.
When he’s participating
in class, I notice and
re-affirm my belief.
When he’s sleeping in class,
I tend to overlook it because
it doesn’t confirm my belief.
Obstacles to Problem Solving
• Fixation: unable to see an issue from a different point
of view
Mental Set: solving issues
by using the same strategies
from the past
– Usually helpful, but not always.
– In high school I could ace exams
without studying, but when I got
to college it stopped working.
Functional Fixedness: only
viewing items being useful for their
typical purpose
– One day I brought a coke to school,
but didn’t have a bottle opener. The
coke sat unopened all day even
though a screwdriver, belt buckle,
scissors, and staple remover were all
available.
Obstacles to Problem Solving
• Framing: the way an issue is worded can change how
people respond to it
– Do you have more confidence in a drug
that has a 90% survival rate or a 10%
death rate?
– Are you more likely to purchase
meat labeled as “80 percent lean” or “20
percent fat”?
– Which sounds better: “I haven’t gained any
weight this year!” or “I haven’t lost any
weight this year!”
– When it comes to long-distance
relationships, is it... “absence makes
the heart grow fonder” or “out of
sight, out of mind”?
Obstacles to Problem Solving
• Belief Perseverance: continuing to believe
something even after it has been proven wrong
– You form a belief, are shown evidence to disprove it, but
continue believing it anyway.
You continue to believe Tiger
Woods is the best golfer in the
world even though he is not
You keep expecting Santa to
bring you presents on Christmas
even though you are 17 yrs. old
Obstacles to Problem Solving
• Overconfidence: being more certain than correct
– 82% of U.S. drivers consider themselves to be in the top 30%
of their group in terms of driving safety.
– 81% of all new business owners felt they had an excellent
chance of their businesses succeeding. When asked about the
success of their peers, the answer was only 39%.
The ship that cannot be sunk!
Obstacles to Problem Solving
Overconfidence Quiz
–
Answer each of the following questions with a RANGE in which you
are 90% confident the answer is in.
1. How old was Michael Jackson when he died? 50
2. What is the size of Wisconsin (in square miles)?
65,556
23
3. How many countries are in North America?
39
4. How many books are in the Old Testament?
32,292
5. How many points did Michael Jordan score in his career?
6. How much does the average ant weigh (in milligrams)?
3
1869
7. What year was Mahatma Gandhi born?
8. What is the gestation period (birth process) of an Asian elephant (in days)? 645
4580
9. What is the air distance from Miami to Paris (in miles)?
1,400
10. How much did the heaviest man in history weigh (in pounds)?
– Since you answered each question with 90% confidence, you
should have scored 9 correct on the quiz. If you scored less, you
were overconfident!!!
Obstacles to Problem Solving
This Month’s Horoscope
You may have a hard time focusing on what's on your
plate right now – the big events coming down the road
are a big distraction. It's a great thing to have
something to look forward to, so don’t deny yourself
that joy. However, the tasks of today are important
too, so try to focus on them.
Obstacles to Problem Solving
• Barnum Effect: believing very vague descriptions
personally apply to you
• THIS MONTH’S HOROSCOPE: You may have a hard time focusing on
what's on your plate right now – the big events coming down the road
are a big distraction. It's a great thing to have something to look forward
to, so don’t deny yourself that joy. However, the tasks of today are
important too, so try to focus on them. (Made this up)
This effect is named after P.T. Barnum, a master showman who once declared,
“There’s a sucker born every minute.”
Using and Misusing Heuristics
• Representativeness Heuristic: making predictions
on the occurrence of things based on how closely
they match your prototypes
– Remember heuristics are quick but can be wrong at times
– Basically you make a decision based on your stereotypes
Which coin flip sequence is more
likely: HTHTHT –or– HHHHHH?
We think of the
There are 1.3
first coin flip
million
combination
accountants in the
being more likely
United States
because it’s
but only 5,000
closer to 50%,
models.
but each of those
Statistically, they
exact sequences
are much more
have an equal
likely to be
chance of
accountants.
occurring.
Are these people more likely to
be models or accountants?
Using and Misusing Heuristics
• Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death
– How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in
your mind?
– Which do you think causes more deaths per year?
Asthma Attacks?
920 per year
Electrocution?
500 per year
Using and Misusing Heuristics
• Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death
– How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in
your mind?
– Which do you think causes more deaths per year?
Murder?
9,200 per year
Diabetes?
19,000 per year
Using and Misusing Heuristics
• Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death
– How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in
your mind?
– Which do you think causes more deaths per year?
Appendicitis?
Lightning Strike?
440 per year
52 per year
Using and Misusing Heuristics
• Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death
– How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in
your mind?
– Which do you think causes more deaths per year?
Car Accident?
27,000 per year
Breast Cancer?
39,620 per year
Using and Misusing Heuristics
• Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death
– How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in
your mind?
– Which do you think causes more deaths per year?
Drowning?
Lung Cancer?
3,600 per year
160,340 per year
Using and Misusing Heuristics
• Availability Heuristic: making predictions on the
occurrence of things based on how easily they are
available in your memory
– If instances come to mind, we presume such instances are
common.
Were you afraid
to fly after 9/11?
After hearing about a
lottery winner on TV,
people overestimate
their own chances of
winning.
Did you feel unsafe at
school after hearing about
the Sandy Hook/Columbine
Shooting(s)?
Using and Misusing Heuristics
•
Availability Heuristic Example
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Pick a number between 1 and 9.
Subtract 5.
Multiply
by 3.have a grey elephant from Denmark?
Do you
Square the number (multiply by itself).
Add the digits until you only get one digit (for example, if your number
is 23, take 2+3 to get 5).
6. If your number is less than five, add 5; otherwise, subtract 4.
7. Multiply by 2.
8. Subtract 6.
9. Map the digit to an alphabet letter (1=A, 2=B, etc.)
10. Pick a country that begins with that letter.
11. Take the second letter in that country name and think of a mammal
that begins with that letter.
12. Think of the color of that mammal.