Chapter 7 THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR Chapter 7 Copyright © 2014 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Learning Objectives After this chapter you should be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Define and discuss federal, state, and local government spending. Analyze the graph of the C + I + G line. Define and compute the average and marginal tax rates. Identify and discuss the types of taxes. List and discuss the sources of Federal Government revenue. Summarize recent federal tax legislation. List and discuss the sources of state and local government revenue. Explain and discuss the economic role of government. 7-2 The Growing Economic Role of Government Most of the growth over the past 7 decades was due to the Depression and WWII (1929–1945). After 1945, the role of government continued to expand. When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, there was a political swing in favor of shrinking the size of government. In 2008–2009, as the economy sank into recession, voters demanded the government do something. 7-3 How Government Influences the Economy The government exerts 4 basic influences over the economy: 1. 2. 3. 4. It spends trillions of dollars. It levies trillions of dollars in taxes. It redistributes hundreds of billions of dollars. It regulates the economy. 7-4 Federal Government Spending The Federal Government’s financial or fiscal year begins on October 1 - September 30. Preparation of the budget begins two years before the beginning of the fiscal year. • • • • • President and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) work with departments and agencies on budget plans. The President submits the final budget message in February of prior fiscal year. By May 15, both houses of Congress have to pass a concurrent budget resolution. Appropriations bills are passed between May and October. The 13 spending bills that are the heart of the budget are often passed late. 7-5 Government Revenues and Spending, Fiscal Year 2014 Estimate 7-6 Spending: Past, Present, and Future • As a share of federal spending, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid have more than doubled in 40 years and will continue to grow, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s “intermediate” projections. Figures are from President Barack Obama’s 2014 budget. 7-7 Does the U.S. spend too much on foreign aid? 7-8 State and Local Government Spending Main expenditures: Education Health Welfare Police Prisons Police protection and prisons are increasingly straining state and local budgets. 7-9 Government Purchases versus Transfer Payments The federal, state, and local governments spend over $5.0 trillion a year. Approximately half is government purchases. • • The largest government purchase is defense. These end up in the “G” part of GDP. GDP = C + I + G + Xn The other half is transfer payments. • • The largest transfer payment is social security. These payments end up in the “C” part GDP. 7-10 Graphing the C + I + G Line Assume government spending is constant across all levels of disposable income at $2,000 billion (or $2 trillion). We see how it shifts the function up to the new C + I + G line. This new line crosses the 45-degree line at a new equilibrium of $10 trillion. We will add Xn in chapter 8. 7-11 Questions for Thought and Discussion How did the Great Depression encourage the growth of government? Which categories of government spending would you like to see decreased? Which would you like to see increased? Why do transfer payments show up in Consumption rather than Government Purchases? 7-12 The Average Tax Rate and the Marginal Tax Rate • The Average Tax Rate (ATR) is the overall rate you pay on your entire income. It’s taxes paid divided by taxable income. • The Marginal Tax Rate (MTR) is the rate you pay on the last dollars you earned. This is the change in taxes paid divided by the change in taxable income. Once again, “marginal” refers to the response to a change. 7-13 The Average Tax Rate and the Marginal Tax Rate: A Hypothetical Illustration Income Level Marginal Tax Rate 0 – $100 0 % $101 – $200 Tax Total Taxes Average Tax Rate $0 $0 0.0 % 10 % $10 $10 5.0 % $201 – $300 12 % $12 $22 7.3 % $301 – $400 15 % $15 $37 9.3 % $401 – $500 28 % $28 $65 13.0 % $501 – $600 50 % $50 $115 19.2 % 7-14 Types of Taxes Direct tax A tax with your name on it. Examples include: personal income tax, social security payroll tax • corporate income tax on profits Indirect tax A tax on goods and services that we purchase. Examples include: sales taxes, excise taxes 7-15 Types of Taxes Progressive taxes As your income increases, the percentage that you pay increases. Places a greater burden on those best able to pay and little or no burden on the poor. Example: federal income tax Proportional taxes Flat tax (same percent across all incomes, with no deductions) It would be much harder for a family with an income of $10,000 to pay $1,500 in income tax (15 percent of $10,000) than it would be for a family with an income of $100,000 to pay $15,000 (15 percent of $100,000). Regressive taxes Places a heavier burden on the poor than on the rich Example: social security tax 7-16 Nominally Progressive, Proportional, & Regressive Taxes 7-17 Federal Personal Income Tax: The Top Marginal Tax Rate, 1993–2013 7-18 Sources of Federal Revenue Personal Income Tax The largest source (44%) of federal revenue. Considered progressive because the burden falls mainly on the upper middle class and the rich. Payroll Tax Social Security and Medicare taxes Corporate Income Tax Accounts for only 12% of federal tax revenue. Excise Taxes Sales tax aimed at specific goods and services. May be intended to reduce consumption. Examples: tires, cigarettes, liquor, gasoline, phone calls Estate Tax Tax on estates left to people other than spouse. 7-19 Top Marginal Combined Income Tax Rates in 11 Leading Wealthy Nations, 2013* *Combined federal, state, and local income taxes. 7-20 Payroll Taxes The Social Security and Medicare taxes are the Payroll Tax. What you pay is matched by your employer. The Social Security tax by law is set at 6.2% with a wage based limitation of $113,700 in 2013. The inflation rate of the previous year raises the wage base. The Medicare tax of 1.45% applies to all wages and salaries. There is no wage based limitation. Income such as rental income, interest, dividends, and profit is exempt. 7-21 Payroll Taxes You pay 6.2% in payroll tax on wages up to $94,200 and 1.45% on all wages and salaries. This means the rich whose income is primarily from rental income, interest, dividends, and profits pay no payroll taxes on money from these sources. The Payroll Tax is the fastest growing source of federal revenue. Today, ¾ of all taxpayers pay more in social security taxes than in federal income tax. Think about it. . .only a tiny fraction of the income of the rich goes to payroll taxes. 7-22 The Incidence of the Social Security Tax at Various Income Levels in 2013 Note: The Social Security tax rate is set by law at 6.2 percent. Each year, however, the inflation rate of the previous year raises the wage base. In 2013, the wage base was set at $113,700. 7-23 The Estate Tax The estate tax is a tax on the estates of people when they die. Over 99 percent of estates are exempt from estate taxes. Beginning in 2013, estates valued at over $5 million – the first $5 million is tax exempt – is subject to a tax of 40 percent. 7-24 Sources of State and Local Tax Revenue Personal income tax Accounts for about half of all state revenue. In general, the middle class and the rich pay nearly all federal income taxes Sales Tax Is a source of almost half of all taxes collected by the states. Is a highly regressive tax. Property taxes Provides 80% of all local tax revenue. Can influence business decisions about where to locate. 7-25 Government Tax Rates as a Percentage of GDP, 1929 and 2012 Since 1929 Federal taxes have risen much more quickly than state and local taxes as a percentage of GDP. 7-26 Questions for Thought and Discussion Is the American income tax regressive or progressive? Are payroll taxes regressive or progressive? Are sales and excise taxes regressive or progressive? Which tend to be more progressive, federal taxes or state and local taxes? What are the arguments for and against raising gasoline taxes? 7-27 Tax Receipts as a Percentage of GDP in the U.S. and Selected Countries, 2011 American taxpayers have a relatively low burden in comparison to taxpayers in other rich nations. Source: Heritage Foundation 7-28 Economic Role of Government Provision of Public Goods and Services Redistribution of Income Stabilization Economic Regulation 7-29 Provision of Public Goods and Services Some examples include: Defense of the country Maintenance of internal order A nationwide highway network Provision of a money supply Public education Running the criminal justice system Environmental protection Private enterprise would not supply these because they are not profitable. Public goods and services raise our standard of living. 7-30 Redistribution of Income The government redistributes hundreds of billions of dollars every year. Social Security redistributes money from those currently working to those who have retired. Welfare redistributes tax dollars to the poor. • Examples are food stamps, Medicaid, disability payments, and unemployment benefits. Welfare redistributes tax dollars for the rich. • Examples are subsidies to corporate farmers and tax breaks for defense contractors, oil companies, and other large corporations. 7-31 Stabilization Two basic goals of the Federal Government: Stable prices Low unemployment Between fiscal year 2009 and fiscal year 2011 federal spending leapt from $3.2 trillion to $3.9 trillion. Taxes were cut, while U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve provided over $2 trillion in loans and loan guarantees to the nation’s major financial institutions and other large corporations. Policies helped end the Great Recession but fueled reaction against increased economic role of government. 7-32 Economic Regulation The government provides the economic rules of the game. Examples: fostering competition, environmental protection, child labor laws, minimum hourly wage, consumer protection laws and a court system. It also provides the social and political context in which the economy operates. The government allow individuals and business firms to operate with the maximum degree of freedom within this framework. 7-33 Adam Smith’s Dos and Don’ts Do: Protect society from the violence and invasion of other countries. Establish an exact administration of justice. Erect and maintain certain public works and institutions where private enterprise could not profit from doing so. Don’t do anything else. 7-34 Will Social Security Be There for You? For decades, the Federal Government has received more in Social Security Taxes than it was paying out. This surplus is deposited in the Social Security trust (trust me) fund, consisting of U.S. government securities. However, the surplus is spent by the government each year to offset its deficits. The U.S. Treasury places I.O.U.s, (government securities) in the Social Security trust fund. In 2010, benefits exceeded tax revenues because of recession. unemployment, tax receipts lagged and seniors retired early. Difference is paid out of the trust fund by selling government securities. 7-35 Will Social Security Be There for You? Is a crisis looming? The baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) retiring. Benefits will continue to exceed revenues. The securities in the trust fund will continue to have to be sold to fill in the gap. Current estimates are that the trust fund will run out around 2037. Does this mean there will be no funds for Social Security benefits? No! • Each year, Social Security will collect revenue to pay most of the benefits. The gap will require a rise in payroll taxes and/or a cut in benefits. 7-36 Social Security is the Good News; the Bad News is Medicare Medicare is even more seriously under funded than Social Security. By 2028 Medicare spending will surpass Social Security spending. Remember all those retiring baby boomers? Health care costs have been rising much faster than inflation. Medicare financing is much more complex than Social Security and harder to fix. One goal of health care reform was to reduce costs so Medicare costs will rise more slowly. Will it work? 7-37 Questions for Thought and Discussion How does the present role of government deviate from the role envisioned by Adam Smith? Would it be possible or desirable to return to a government with a more limited role? How can government continue to provide social security and Medicare? Should the wage limitation on social security taxes be eliminated? 7-38