K-12 Redistricting
Paul Mitchell, Redistricting Partners
Application of State and Federal
Law in 2011
What is Redistricting
definitions
Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is
done every 10 years after the release of the US Census.
The well known examples are Congress and the
legislature.
K-12 districts with election areas must also do
redistricting.
What is Redistricting
definitions
Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is
done every 10 years after the release of the US Census.
The well known examples are Congress and the
legislature.
K-12 districts without election areas must review their
vulnerability under the California Voting Rights Act.
What is Redistricting
definitions
VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all
election systems, including redistricting. Operative
sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5.
CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act – it pushes most
at-large systems into districted elections based on an
analysis of populations and voting patterns.
What is Redistricting
the Gerrymander
The term Gerrymander came
from a cartoon depicting a
rather serpentine looking district
created by Governor Elbrige Gerry
in Massachusetts.
What is Redistricting
the Gerrymander
There are still legislative lines
that look a lot like
the original Gerrymander!
Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22
What is Redistricting
the Gerrymander
The current “worst of
the worst” is the new
Henry Waxman
Congressional Seat.
Not contiguous at high
tide?
What is Redistricting
Why should anyone care?
What is Redistricting
Why should anyone care?
What is Redistricting
Why should anyone care?
What is Redistricting
Why should anyone care?
In K-12 this is
unlikely to be
about Partisanship
as much as rural v.
urban; ethnicities
or other factors
where winners and
losers are found.
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
There are a number of criteria that have been used
nationally and upheld by courts.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Maintain “communities of interest”
Follow city/county/local government lines
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
There are a number of criteria that have been used
nationally and upheld by courts.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Maintain “communities of interest”
Follow city/county/local government lines
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
1
2
3
4
5
Pop.
Deviation
% Dev.
118,063
86,695
67,089
68,998
81,515
32,498
1,130
(18,476)
(16,567)
(4,050)
+38%
+1%
-22%
-19%
-5%
Goal Population
85,565
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Pop.
Deviation
% Dev.
57,036
57,185
55,143
58,961
58,291
57,382
59,598
-620
-471
-2,513
1,305
635
-274
1,942
-1.1%
-0.8%
-4.4%
2.3%
1.1%
-0.5%
3.4%
Goal Population
57,656
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
There are a number of criteria that have been used
nationally and upheld by courts.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Maintain “communities of interest”
Follow city/county/local government lines
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
Current Districts
Equal Size Districts
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
There are a number of criteria that have been used
nationally and upheld by courts.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Maintain “communities of interest”
Follow city/county/local government lines
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
Communities of Interest
Bringing like people together for representation
What is a community of interest includes ethnic and
language minorities and other groups.
• Communities covered by the VRA
• Latinos
• Asians
• African Americans
African American COI
Asian COI
Latino COI
Armenian COI
VRA Requirements
Progressive federal and local laws protect minorities
Sample District
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Asian
13%
10%
9%
30%
45%
49%
58%
African American
16%
7%
18%
5%
2%
1%
1%
Latino
21%
19%
53%
22%
15%
37%
12%
VRA Requirements
Progressive federal and local laws protect minorities
Sample District
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Asian
13%
10%
9%
30%
45%
49%
58%
African American
16%
7%
18%
5%
2%
1%
1%
Latino
21%
19%
53%
22%
15%
37%
12%
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
There are a number of criteria that have been used
nationally and upheld by courts.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Maintain “communities of interest”
Follow city/county/local government lines
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
There are a number of criteria that have been used
nationally and upheld by courts.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Maintain “communities of interest”
Follow city/county/local government lines
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
Traditional Redistricting Principles
Should be followed by K-12 Districts
Compact
Not Compact
What is the CVRA
definition
The California Voting Rights Act was signed in 2002 and
ONLY impacts boards with at-large elections. These
boards may need to transition to “by-area” elections if:
• The district has Racially Polarized Voting, and,
• The sub-group(s) in question can have better outcomes through the
creation of districts.
• Having a diverse board can help with the narrative, but does not
provide protection from a violation of CVRA.
What is a CVRA Analysis
definition
CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the
requirements for districts under the California Voting
Rights Act. This analysis includes:
• Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of
the district.
• Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the
existence of and severity of RPV
• Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that
are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)
What is CVRA Analysis
definition
CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the
requirements for districts under the California Voting
Rights Act. This analysis includes:
• Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of
the district.
• Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the
existence of and severity of RPV.
• Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that
are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)
CVRA Review of District
Ethnic, electoral, historic
A review of past election results and a review of the
overall ethnic makeup could point to several things that
make the district a target for CVRA lawsuit:
• Rate of turnover on the board – could point to election patterns where
other groups do not have an opportunity to get elected.
• African American, Latino or Asian populations that are large and
densely populated in specific regions.
• The district can create majority-minority or “influence” districts.
What is CVRA Analysis
definition
CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the
requirements for districts under the California Voting
Rights Act. This analysis includes:
• Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of
the district.
• Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the
existence of and severity of RPV.
• Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that
are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)
Racially Polarized Voting
How it is analyzed
Review of election results for candidates and ballot
measures. Federal case law has validated two key
methods that can be used in addition to others:
• HPA – Extreme Case Analysis. Looks at precincts that are on average 90%
of one race.
• Regression Analysis. Answers questions of how the votes change
throughout a model, such as how the votes for Prop 187 drop the more
Latino a precinct is.
• Today’s data can get much more precise than the 1986 case that validated
these methods.
Racially Polarized Voting
How it is analyzed
Review of election results for candidates and ballot
measures. Federal case law has validated two key
methods:
• HPA – Extreme Case Analysis. Looks at precincts that are on average 90%
of one race.
• Regression Analysis. Answers questions of how the votes change
throughout a model, such as how the votes for Prop 187 drop the more
Latino a precinct is.
• Today’s data can get much more precise than the 1986 case that validated
these methods.
Racially Polarized Voting
How it is analyzed
HPA Analysis looks at Precincts or census blocks that are
homogeneous – for this purpose we can consider anything
90% of one race to be all one race. For one client we
found the following:
HPA Analysis – Overall Counts
Latino
Census Block Count
Total Pop
% Ethnic
1382
136,462
93.38%
White
3518
142,920
92.10%
Racially Polarized Voting
How it is analyzed
HPA Analysis looks at Precincts or census blocks that are
homogeneous – for this purpose we can consider anything
90% of one race to be all one race. And that kind of data
allows us to determine:
Non-Latino
Latino
CANDIDATE RACE
Latino
45.45%
54.54%
-9.09%
White
63.58%
36.41%
27.17%
Racially Polarized Voting
How it is analyzed
Review of election results for candidates and ballot
measures. Federal case law has validated two key
methods:
• HPA – Extreme Case Analysis. Looks at precincts that are on average 90%
of one race.
• Regression Analysis. Answers questions of how the votes change
throughout a model, such as how the votes for Prop 187 drop the more
Latino a precinct is.
• Today’s data can get much more precise than the 1986 case that validated
these methods.
Racially Polarized Voting
How it is analyzed
A Simple regression analysis looks at how votes change as
ethnic composition of a precinct changes. Multi-Variable
regression analysis can look at how race impacts vs. other
factors.
The results are formulas that can be confusing and
scatterplot graphs that can be relatively intuitive.
Racially Polarized Voting
How it is analyzed
A Simple regression analysis looks at how votes change as
ethnic composition of a precinct changes. Multi-Variable
regression analysis can look at how race impacts vs. other
factors.
y = 0.4946x + 0.2944
y = 0.4946(1) + 0.2944 = 0.789
78.9% of Latinos voted for Latino
y = 0.4946(0) + 0.2944 = 0.2944
29.4% of Whites (Non-Latinos) voted Latino
What is CVRA Analysis
definition
CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the
requirements for districts under the California Voting
Rights Act. This analysis includes:
• Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of
the district.
• Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the
existence of and severity of RPV.
• Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that
are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)
What is CVRA Analysis
Majority-minority and Influence Districts